Let's Talk About the Bills, 2023 Divisional Round Edition

[Bearcat]

Discuss.

[KSCHIEF]

Originally Posted by room152

sorry i misspoke, the stat is the Chiefs give up a additional 10.8 expected points per 60 plays on the road vs. arrowhead. Meaning their pass defense is much better at home than on the road. The biggest split difference in the entire NFL.

Okay then let's make a deal. We will give Buffalo 30 expected points but only 15 actual points and see who wins. Who knows, maybe you can successfully argue to Roger that they should advance due to their superior expected point total.

Fun Fact: The Chiefs defense has been very good to elite all year. There's just not a lot to poke holes in there. I don't think admitting that is even bad because it also means if Josh goes out and scores 27+ points and wins then everyone here should tip their cap to him and the Bills for having our number this year...

[Straight, No Chaser]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Forecast is now partly cloudy and 25 degrees

If so, I'm taking the over. Lot's of scoring

[room152]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Vibe check:

This defense is going to go on the field to make a statement against Buffalo and will nearly shut them down completely. 15-20 points max

This offense is starting to click and will do just enough to win by more than a TD with the possibility to go up big early and never look back

There going to have to play lights out Sunday to have a chance givin how bad Patty plays on the road this year. He's Zack Wilson on the road.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by room152

There going to have to play lights out Sunday to have a chance givin how bad Patty plays on the road this year. He's Zack Wilson on the road.

They're* dumbass.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I keep asking myself where the real weaknesses are.

WR - obviously. But shit man, Rice and Kelce are two premier pass-catchers at this point. That's as many as most teams have (though admittedly, not as many as Buffalo). For all the talk about Miami's explosive offense, that's what THEY had - Waddle and Hill. Can you name Miami's 3rd leading receiver? Some guy named Durham Smythe - I shit you not.

2 isn't ideal, but it WILL do the job. And I think Hardman is still someone teams have to account for. I think we're okay there. Not spectacular, but okay.

And that's the ONLY area where there are real issues. The defense, top to bottom and left to right, is solid as a rock. Not a single obvious flaw. They can do anything and they're coached by a guy who seems to be in complete control of his instrument and has been all year.

The OL is good. Nobody is ever happy with the OL here in KC because we saw the mountaintop in the DV years. No, the OL isn't THAT good - but I think we probably have the best offensive line left in the playoffs at this point. We have two above average pass blocking OTs and a very versatile and capable interior line. Should we be running the ball through the C gap a lot? No, no we should not. But that's not our style anyway.

I don't see an achilles heel here. I don't see anything that can be exploited. It's just a deep, well coached, very experienced football team.

There is one flaw with the defense. They are 28th in creating turnovers. Buffalo and Baltimore defenses are both Top 3 in creating turnovers. So basically 4 major flaws:

1. Too many turnovers by KC offense
2. Too many penalties by KC offense
3. Too many dropped passes by KC offense
4. Not enough turnovers by KC defense

They can win games if the first 3 items are avoided 95% of the time.

[Rainbarrel]

One of Josh's home losses was in London
One of PMII's home wins was in Germany

[Rainbarrel]

Better away vs better at home

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by room152

sounds like you had a bad passing game.

FYP... Bills Mafia on suicide watch at 10pm Sun night...

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DRM08

There is one flaw with the defense. They are 28th in creating turnovers. Buffalo and Baltimore defenses are both Top 3 in creating turnovers. So basically 4 major flaws:

1. Too many turnovers by KC offense
2. Too many penalties by KC offense
3. Too many dropped passes by KC offense
4. Not enough turnovers by KC defense

They can win games if the first 3 items are avoided 95% of the time.

Buffalo is only +2 on the year I believe and picked off Sam Howell 4 timed and Bailey Zappe 3 times, which goes a long way towards making up the difference, as I believe they're +10 on interceptions compared to KC and even on fumbles forced/recovered.

Obviously, the Chiefs' -11 has been a problem, but would also say the Bills' stats are skewed by particularly shitty days by shitty QBs.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Kincaid is really good - hasn't had the opportunities Rice has had.

Stand Kelce/Rice vs. Diggs/Kincaid and I'd hate to have to make a living off the difference. That's a pretty comparable duo, IMO.

And as noted, past that they have a lot more going for them. Especially with the emergence of Shakir. That shit's just annoying right there. Same class as Skyy Moore - drafted 3 rounds later and doesn't suck.

Damn damn damn. Just salt in the wound.

Now the irony is, we are going to stick McDuffie on him most the game while they try to cover Rice with Kair Elam...

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by room152

There going to have to play lights out Sunday to have a chance givin how bad Patty plays on the road this year. He's Zack Wilson on the road.

Mahomes had a 90.4 QB rating and completed nearly 70% of his passes on the road this year.

Try again dumbshit.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

When do the injury reports come out?

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Buffalo is only +2 on the year I believe and picked off Sam Howell 4 timed and Bailey Zappe 3 times, which goes a long way towards making up the difference, as I believe they're +10 on interceptions compared to KC and even on fumbles forced/recovered.

Obviously, the Chiefs' -11 has been a problem, but would also say the Bills' stats are skewed by particularly shitty days by shitty QBs.

Even if you knock down Howell & Zappe to just 1 turnover each, you end up with 25 turnovers created by the Buffalo defense. Chiefs defense has only created 17 turnovers. Not great in 17 games.

[Rainbarrel]

Maybe we can bring Tater as a mascot

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Even if you knock down Howell & Zappe to just 1 turnover each, you end up with 25 turnovers created by the Buffalo defense. Chiefs defense has only created 17 turnovers. Not great in 17 games.

The lack of turnovers and the tendency to give up long drives have been the only flaws with the Chiefs defense this year.

The lack of turnovers seems to be a law of averages deal… just got to start getting tipped balls to go the Chiefs way and capitalize on loose ball opportunities.