***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Third Eye

I mean, I hate to be that guy, but there’s actually a lot to argue about that. What can’t be argued is that 105K CONFIRMED cases have resulted in 3,500 deaths. I don’t think anyone is doubting that the actual number of infected is much higher. It also seems to have a slower transmission rate. As a result, while it does seem to be more fatal than seasonal influenza, the ultimate mortality rate may end up being similar. Time will tell.

That is what I'm saying cannot be argued. And yes, that may be. But we have the numbers we have at present, and those numbers tell us that the percentage of people who got this virus and died from it is presently at 3.4%

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Third Eye

I mean, I hate to be that guy, but there’s actually a lot to argue about that. What can’t be argued is that 105K CONFIRMED cases have resulted in 3,500 deaths. I don’t think anyone is doubting that the actual number of infected is much higher. It also seems to have a slower transmission rate. As a result, while it does seem to be more fatal than seasonal influenza, the ultimate mortality rate may end up being similar. Time will tell.

Yeah I think for sure the actual rate is much lower than 3.4%. Unless you mandatorily test everyone every day, the death rate for confirmed cases is always going to be lower than the true death for all cases.

So if the actual death rate ends up being say .3% of all cases (assuming we had godlike power to know all cases), it will be horrible. But life will go on. It will be much less impactful than the Spanish Flu and maybe inline with the 1957 flu.

My biggest concern right now is the healthcare system being completely overwhelmed at some point, and all the unexpected consequences that fall out of that - maybe riots, panic, etc.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Third Eye

I mean, I hate to be that guy, but there’s actually a lot to argue about that. What can’t be argued is that 105K CONFIRMED cases have resulted in 3,500 deaths. I don’t think anyone is doubting that the actual number of infected is much higher. It also seems to have a slower transmission rate. As a result, while it does seem to be more fatal than seasonal influenza, the ultimate mortality rate may end up being similar. Time will tell.

No. Its a much higher transmission rate than the flu. R0 value of 2 to 3 vs 1.3 or 1.5 of the flu.

China contained it because they are communist. We will not be able to contain it, at all.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yeah I think for sure the actual rate is much lower than 3.4%. Unless you mandatorily test everyone every day, the death rate for confirmed cases is always going to be lower than the true death for all cases.

So if the actual death rate ends up being say .3% of all cases (assuming we had godlike power to know all cases), it will be horrible. But life will go on. It will be much less impactful than the Spanish Flu and maybe inline with the 1957 flu.

My biggest concern right now is the healthcare system being completely overwhelmed at some point, and all the unexpected consequences that fall out of that - maybe riots, panic, etc.

You need to talk to your doctor about a Xanax prescription.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

That is what I'm saying cannot be argued. And yes, that may be. But we have the numbers we have at present, and those numbers tell us that the percentage of people who got this virus and died from it is presently at 3.4%

Right. What you're talking about is what will matter most to an individual who has just tested positive. What are my odds? And to some degree it's a proxy for "serious enough symptoms to be tested" vs. fatality.

The problem is "serious enough to be tested" right now varies massively from country to country. And we're on the super low end. So there's a ton of uncertainty in the US at the moment. Outside of China - South Korea seems to be doing the most aggressive testing at the moment.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

You need to talk to your doctor about a Xanax prescription.

Lol yeah I was so unhinged there. Good call.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BWillie

No. Its a much higher transmission rate than the flu. R0 value of 2 to 3 vs 1.3 or 1.5 of the flu.

China contained it because they are communist. We will not be able to contain it, at all.

If they contained it, it wouldn't be here and around the globe.

What they need to do is stop ****ing eating civets and other critters, or at least put the meat on the grill for a few minutes.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by Donger

If they contained it, it wouldn't be here and around the globe.

What they need to do is stop is stop ****ing eating civets and other critters, or at least put the meat on the grill for a few minutes.

I'm gonna eat as much raw opossum and lightly seared snake as I can. Can't tell me what to digest.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I'm gonna eat as much raw opossum and lightly seared snake as I can. Can't tell me what to digest.

And bats! Don't forget the bats!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I'm gonna eat as much raw opossum and lightly seared snake as I can. Can't tell me what to digest.

Seriously, people should be pissed about it. Need I post the Chinese guy eating live baby mice again?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by TLO

You need to talk to your doctor about a Xanax prescription.

I'm more worried about people than the virus. Fear and stupidity cause panic and there's no shortage of that these days. Plus with internet communication one tweet can do a lot of damage.

Also a lot of our PPE is made in china. If China is the world's production hub and they shut down that impacts a whole lot...

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by TLO

And bats! Don't forget the bats!

I can't imagine there's a whole lot of meat on a sky rat...

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'm more worried about people than the virus. Fear and stupidity cause panic and there's no shortage of that these days. Plus with internet communication one tweet can do a lot of damage.

Also a lot of our PPE is made in china. If China is the world's production hub and they shut down that impacts a whole lot...

People fear the unknown. It's basic human instinct.

I'm somewhat afraid of this, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't. I'm also not out buying every mask, bottle of hand sanitizer, and ****ing roll of toilet paper at Wal-Mart.

[keg in kc]

My side hustle revolves around medical conventions. I've done this work for seventeen years, for dozens of conventions in major cities all over the US. Last Friday something happened that I had never seen before: following recent reports by the CDC and the World Health Organization, HIMSS canceled their 2020 convention in Orlando.

Now you can talk about political weaponization of this virus by either side of the Dem/rep.aisle, or about the media panicking the public, but this cancellation makes it obvious to me that this is a real thing. Events with 45000 registered attendees do not cancel for something that's no worse than the flu. This isn't the first event to be cancelled in the last week, either (GDC, SXSW...), and I don't expect it to be the last.. But whatever else happens, I've never seen a convention I worked on cancelled for any reason until now. Not SARS or MERS or bird flu or zika or anything else.

Interesting side.note: President Trump was scheduled to speak about the coronavirus at the convention.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Donger

If they contained it, it wouldn't be here and around the globe.

What they need to do is stop ****ing eating civets and other critters, or at least put the meat on the grill for a few minutes.

Fair enough. But the Chinese probably did as good of a job attempting to contain it than any other country would have because they are communist. The virus has actually been reduced because of the measures they took.