Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Agreed if all you were looking at is raw wins. But DVOA accounts was specifically designed to account for a team's strength relative to its contemporaries and is adjusted on a per-game basis, and the 2023 Ravens are one of the best DVOA teams of all time.

DVOA is a useful stat, but like run differential in baseball I think it does tend to inflate how good a team is if they pile it on blowouts.

That 21 Buffalo team, and the 20 Buffalo team, had crazy-high DvOA, and historically good defenses according to DVOA. The Chiefs went through like hot knives through butter. This is also something the Chiefs have shown multiple times (49ers last year) throughout this run: putting the blowtorch to #1 defenses through a combination of game-planning and Mahomes excellence.

The Ravens are a really complete team QBed by a dynamic playmaker and coached by smart staffs. Going to take a great and complete effort from KC this time to advance.

I think the winner of this one cruises in the SB, especially if the Lions manage to keep the wave rolling.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by stevieray

Dude, the Chiefs were down 24-0 against the Texans in the playoffs in the first qtr, Mahomes and the Chiefs scored 28 points in one quarter, and won 51-31.

Down against the Titans

Down in the fourth qtr in the SB against SF.

Chiefs play BETTER uphill.

Mahomes is shattering records to the point it's surreal. Almost other worldly.

Guess ya'll have to find out like everbody else, just like we did.

That’s the beauty of this: we will find out! Either a) that Mahomes is infallible even against the most trying circumstances, or b) that the Ravens aren’t the Titans, Texans, or whichever other franchise you’re mentioning that is several tiers below the Ravens. Looking forward to it.

[RollChiefsRoll]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

DVOA is a useful stat, but like run differential in baseball I think it does tend to inflate how good a team is if they pile it on blowouts.

That 21 Buffalo team, and the 20 Buffalo team, had crazy-high DvOA, and historically good defenses according to DVOA. The Chiefs went through like hot knives through butter. This is also something the Chiefs have shown multiple times (49ers last year) throughout this run: putting the blowtorch to #1 defenses through a combination of game-planning and Mahomes excellence.

The Ravens are a really complete team QBed by a dynamic playmaker and coached by smart staffs. Going to take a great and complete effort from KC this time to advance.

I think the winner of this one cruises in the SB, especially if the Lions manage to keep the wave rolling.

And in any event, Baltimore has the highest DVOA this season, and Kansas City is #4. The defenses are both really good. This game will be decided by QB play, and give me the QB who has as many Super Bowl as the other QB has playoff wins.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

That’s the beauty of this: we will find out! Either a) that Mahomes is infallible even against the most trying circumstances, or b) that the Ravens aren’t the Titans, Texans, or whichever other franchise you’re mentioning that is several tiers below the Ravens. Looking forward to it.

Really, where were the Ravens that year? Last year?

Dude is the reigning SB MVP. Gloss over it all you want.

What everybody else did last week and they "Got what they asked for".

Like Eisen said, you'd rather have Buffalo on Sunday.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

The Eagles played a soft schedule last year and started off undefeated, so they seemed like a dominant team. Whereas the Ravens dropped a rainy game to the Colts early and lost to their rivals in the Steelers and so didn’t have the same hype. But that’s all that is: hype.

But a more objective metric like DVOA scores the Ravens as one of the best teams of all time and doesn’t rate the Eagles in that conversation. The Ravens played a tough schedule and dominated their opponents. That’s a better way to gauge how good a roster is than back-of-the-napkin roster “analysis.”

Look no further than the discrepancy between the Eagles offseason and their actual performance this year. People were tugging Howie Roseman off for spamming every UGA player in the draft. How did that turn out for them?

But the good teams you dominated don't have elite QB's??

Miami and Tua

San Fran and Purdy

Lions and Goff outside a dome?

Seattle and Geno?

Cinci with an injured Burrow?

Good teams you played who had good qb's were Cleveland and Watson (who beat you) and Rams and Stafford who aren't really a great "team" but still took ya'll to OT. And the crazy thing is Watson was playing hurt just like Burrow was.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

DVOA is a useful stat, but like run differential in baseball I think it does tend to inflate how good a team is if they pile it on blowouts.

That 21 Buffalo team, and the 20 Buffalo team, had crazy-high DvOA, and historically good defenses according to DVOA. The Chiefs went through like hot knives through butter. This is also something the Chiefs have shown multiple times (49ers last year) throughout this run: putting the blowtorch to #1 defenses through a combination of game-planning and Mahomes excellence.

The Ravens are a really complete team QBed by a dynamic playmaker and coached by smart staffs. Going to take a great and complete effort from KC this time to advance.

I think the winner of this one cruises in the SB, especially if the Lions manage to keep the wave rolling.

This is a reasoned take that I agree with overall. Seen some of your earlier posts in this thread and think you’re being fair.

DVOA isn’t perfect, but it’s one of the few metrics we have to adjust for a team’s situational success and quality of opponents. But like you’re alluding to, real-world considerations like matchups, scheme, and raw talent can upend the expectations DVOA would have you believe.

I do think that in this case, there won’t be a dismantling of the Ravens the way the Chiefs did to the Bills. Both because the Chiefs don’t have the same personnel as then (Tyreek) and the Ravens are just flat better than the Bills.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by stevieray

What everybody else did last week and they "Got what they asked for".

Like Eisen said, you'd rather have Buffalo on Sunday.

Rich Eisen can speak for himself. Like I said earlier in this thread: I was actively rooting for KC so that we can beat the best to cement this team’s legacy.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

But the good teams you dominated don't have elite QB's??

Miami and Tua

San Fran and Purdy

Lions and Goff outside a dome?

Seattle and Geno?

Cinci with an injured Burrow?

Good teams you played who had good (healthy) qb's were Cleveland and Watson (who beat you) and Rams and Stafford who aren't really a great "team" but still took ya'll to OT.

If you want to feed every piece of information through a filter that is heavily biased to make a point, then feel free. The fact of the matter is that no team has every beat as many winning teams as the Ravens did this year, and no team has beat as many winning teams by 14+ points as the Ravens did this year. Taking that and arguing that the Ravens didn’t “prove it” seems pretty contrived.

You’re right though that Mahomes is Mahomes, and he levitates above all of these other teams. Absolutely no disagreement here.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

And in any event, Baltimore has the highest DVOA this season, and Kansas City is #4. The defenses are both really good. This game will be decided by QB play, and give me the QB who has as many Super Bowl as the other QB has playoff wins.

The difference in DVOA between the Ravens and Chiefs is the same as the difference between the Chiefs and Jets.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

DVOA is a useful stat, but like run differential in baseball I think it does tend to inflate how good a team is if they pile it on blowouts.

That 21 Buffalo team, and the 20 Buffalo team, had crazy-high DvOA, and historically good defenses according to DVOA. The Chiefs went through like hot knives through butter. This is also something the Chiefs have shown multiple times (49ers last year) throughout this run: putting the blowtorch to #1 defenses through a combination of game-planning and Mahomes excellence.

The Ravens are a really complete team QBed by a dynamic playmaker and coached by smart staffs. Going to take a great and complete effort from KC this time to advance.

I think the winner of this one cruises in the SB, especially if the Lions manage to keep the wave rolling.

I was just looking a bit and a couple things that popped up were the Ravens being 12th highest ever after 13 weeks and then 3rd highest ever after 16 weeks (didn't go digging for week to week).... the 49ers game was in there of course, but demoralizing the Dolphins was a huge push as well and we all know how overrated they were this year, too.

And then when you put up almost 30ppg against the Browns fraud "best defense", I'm sure that goes a long way, too.

There's probably some kind of fraud multiplier effect... Dolphins put up 70 on the Broncos and beat them by 50, then the Ravens put up 50+ on the Dolphins, and ohhh boy, the Ravens must be amazing!

Stats that are so fluid after 13+ games is concerning though... blow out one team and jump 10 spots on the highest ever list.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Rich Eisen can speak for himself. Like I said earlier in this thread: I was actively rooting for KC so that we can beat the best to cement this team’s legacy.

That's cool, but you have to win the SB to beat the best.

I understand why you ignored the first part of my post.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I was just looking a bit and a couple things that popped up were the Ravens being 12th highest ever after 13 weeks and then 3rd highest ever after 16 weeks (didn't go digging for week to week).... the 49ers game was in there of course, but demoralizing the Dolphins was a huge push as well and we all know how overrated they were this year, too.

And then when you put up almost 30ppg against the Browns fraud "best defense", I'm sure that goes a long way, too.

There's probably some kind of fraud multiplier effect... Dolphins put up 70 on the Broncos and beat them by 50, then the Ravens put up 50+ on the Dolphins, and ohhh boy, the Ravens must be amazing!

Stats that are so fluid after 13+ games is concerning though... blow out one team and jump 10 spots on the highest ever list.

I won’t pretend to know exactly how DVOA works (and some of it is proprietary), but there is an emphasis on recency of games with DVOA. It’s meant to account for the idea that more recent results are more indicative than earlier games. It’s why the Ravens have the highest “weighted” DVOA ever, because the blowouts you’re alluding to have happened within the past month whereas their losses happened months ago at this point.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That's cool, but you have to win the SB to beat the best.

I understand why you ignored the first part of my post.

Well given that the Ravens have already demolished both of the potential NFC representatives in the Super Bowl, I feel confident that this week is the biggest hurdle.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

If you want to feed every piece of information through a filter that is heavily biased to make a point, then feel free. The fact of the matter is that no team has every beat as many winning teams as the Ravens did this year, and no team has beat as many winning teams by 14+ points as the Ravens did this year. Taking that and arguing that the Ravens didn’t “prove it” seems pretty contrived.

You’re right though that Mahomes is Mahomes, and he levitates above all of these other teams. Absolutely no disagreement here.

How is it biased though? The best teams the Ravens beat didn't have an elite QB or one that was healthy. Not knocking the season ya'll have had but the facts are the facts. And when the loses come against Minchew, Pickett and a very injured Watson, then it's something to look at for sure.

[Johnny8]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Come on. You’re on another fanbase’s message board. This type of comment is never going to go well. I’m trying to engage in good faith dialogue and still had someone wake up and downvote literally every post I made. Coming onto their board and trying to turn the conversation into what you’re doing here is going to kill the chance of any cross talk for everyone else.

I actually think I've been really balanced here, so unsure where this is coming from. But yeah, is it irritating that all AA QBs are stereotyped as the same? Sure is. So when I see the same nonsense, I'm going to call it out, because that's what it is.

I can still have normal cross-talk and share objective opinions are also call out bullshit. Those two don't impact one another.