Taylor: 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Chiefs’ 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

By Nate Taylor

https://theathletic.com/3545850/2022...eight-rookies/

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — One of the hardest days in the NFL every year will occur Tuesday, the league’s mandatory roster cutdown deadline, the annual day when many players on the roster bubble leave a team’s training facility for the final time.

The Chiefs, yet again this year, know they are one of the league’s top Super Bowl contenders. After a traditional away-from-home training camp and a successful tour through the preseason, the Chiefs’ quantity of quality players will make the decisions leading up to Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline difficult. One decision to keep a player on the initial 53-man roster means another player, perhaps at another position, could be cut then join another team — as soon as this week — and become a contributor this season.

“It’s such a physical sport — and it’s such a long season,” general manager Brett Veach said Thursday on the Chiefs’ local TV broadcast during the team’s preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers. “We talk about it as a (personnel) staff all the time. When you look at your eight, ninth (offensive) lineman and you look at your fifth linebacker or your sixth receiver, those guys are really going to end up starting (or) playing valuable minutes throughout the course of the season.”

Similar to this time last year, the Chiefs have about 60 players who have value. The team appeared to still have about six roster spots available to be won when Thursday’s exhibition started. Following the game, three different players from our previous projection earlier this month have elevated themselves to be in position to earn a place on the Chiefs’ roster.

Below is our final 53-man roster projection, which included the reasons why some players, particularly a few veterans, earned the last roster spots over their younger teammates.

Note: Per usual, starters are designated in italics.

Spoiler!

OFFENSE (26)
Quarterbacks (2): Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne

This projection is going to mildly anger Chiefs fans. The reality, though, is that Henne, a 15-year veteran, was going to be a lock for the roster as long as he stayed healthy. His one-year, $2 million deal is fully guaranteed. One of the small troubling issues from the preseason is that Henne didn’t lead the Chiefs to points when he was on the field.

Meanwhile, Shane Buechele, a second-year player, was impressive in the preseason, as he finished with 31 completions on 51 attempts for 335 passing yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. The Chiefs might make a small gamble that Buechele, if he is cut, can return to the training facility in a few days as a member of the practice squad. But another team might claim him on waivers. Based on the preseason action, Buechele should probably be Mahomes’ primary backup.

All of this matters, of course, if Mahomes sustains an injury at any point this season. As for Mahomes, he enters his sixth season as arguably the league’s most talented quarterback, although his peers voted him as the NFL’s eight-best player.

Running backs (4): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, Ronald Jones

When it comes to the running backs, what I reported before training camp has remained true: The Chiefs want to have four running backs.

You could argue that last Thursday’s game was most pivotal for Jones, a five-year veteran who struggled in the preseason opener. Jones ran hard between the tackles against the Packers and finished with 43 rushing yards on eight carries. He also looked competent when catching a four-yard reception in the flat.

“There’s certainly value to having different skill levels and different players that can do different things,” Veach said Thursday of the team’s running back position. “You have Clyde and Jerick, who are so good in both the run and the pass. They’re a little smaller, and then you complement that with an Isiah Pacheco and a Ronald Jones, bigger backs that, once they square their shoulders, can really move the pile.”

Fullback (1): Michael Burton

Reid featured Burton early in the preseason, and one could argue that he has won the role of being the team’s best runner in short-yardage situations. He will also be a willing contributor on special teams.

Wide receivers (6): JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Daurice Fountain

No changes at this position. Watson and Fountain performed well in the preseason on offense and special teams, which made one of the most intriguing position battles at the start of camp become anticlimactic rather quickly.

“Everybody wants to make the team and you’re really just hoping and praying that you do, so it was a great feeling, especially with the receiver depth that we have,” Fountain said Thursday of earning the final receiving spot last year, which is likely to occur Tuesday. “It was a blessing. Hopefully the coaches think I did enough.”

Moore, the rookie who was taken in the second round, has progressed well throughout camp and the preseason. His 35-yard punt return against the Packers should secure his secondary role as the Chiefs’ primary punt returner.

Smith-Schuster didn’t record a reception in the preseason and he missed the final two games with a knee injury, so his role within the offense will likely be a mystery to the Arizona Cardinals leading up to the opener.

Tight ends (4): Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Jody Fortson, Noah Gray

The biggest swing on offense in this projection is that Bell remains on the initial roster instead of Buechele. Bell, an eight-year veteran, had surgery Tuesday to repair the hip flexor injury he suffered in the preseason opener. With him expected to be out for a few weeks, Bell could be placed on the injured-reserve list.

Kelce, a future Hall of Famer, will look to record at least 1,000 receiving yards for a seventh consecutive season, a feat that has never occurred for a tight end in the league’s history.

Offensive linemen (9): Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie, Nick Allegretti, Austin Reiter, Geron Christian, Prince Tega Wanogho

A surprise is that the depth at this position is not as strong as I anticipated at the start of camp. Roderick Johnson, a five-year veteran, was projected to be the backup left tackle. Instead, he struggled once the team started having padded practices and was released Saturday. This projection also doesn’t include rookie right tackle Darian Kinnard, who should return on the practice squad for a “redshirt year” so he can develop his technique at both tackle and guard. Wanogho, a second-year player, was solid in the final two preseason games to earn the final roster spot.

The Chiefs at least have reliable backups in Allegretti and Reiter, a center who played much of Thursday’s game at right guard. On the waiver wire, the Chiefs likely will look to claim another tackle. The good news for coach Andy Reid and Mahomes is that the Chiefs might have the league’s best starting offensive line.

DEFENSE (24)

Defensive linemen (9): Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Carlos Dunlap, George Karlaftis, Mike Danna, Tershawn Wharton, Danny Shelton, Khalen Saunders

Thursday’s game provided an opportunity for young defensive ends such as Joshua Kaindoh, Malik Herring and Azur Kamara to prove they are worthy of the last roster spot in this group. But the trio of defenders were not impressive enough against the Packers.

Honestly, the Chiefs still have more talented defensive tackles than defensive ends. Shelton, an eight-year veteran, played only a few snaps in the preseason, but he should be an imposing defender in the middle of the line. Much of the season will come down to how valuable Karlaftis, a rookie, and Dunlap, a 13-year veteran, are as part of the Chiefs’ pass rush. A first-round pick, Karlaftis was stellar in the preseason in showcasing his strength and athleticism.

The leader of the group is Jones, the seventh-year veteran who is the most-tenured member of the defense. He was voted by his peers as the league’s 39th-best player.

Linebacker (5): Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Elijah Lee, Darius Harris, Leo Chenal

As expected, Bolton and Gay were dominant in the preseason. The biggest winner from Thursday’s game was Harris, the third-year veteran who appears to be the backup middle linebacker. Harris finished the game with three tackles, including one behind the line of scrimmage.

“It felt good and I just got off to a hot start,” Harris said following Thursday’s game. “After that first tackle, I just built confidence and it came to me after that. Obviously I feel like I’ve put enough (good production) on film and hopefully I make the 53-man roster. It would definitely be an honor to make the cut and be on the active roster throughout the entire season.”

As it relates to Jermaine Carter Jr., the fifth-year veteran who signed with the Chiefs this offseason, can I ask you a question: Do you remember him having an impressive snap in the preseason? The answer, I believe, is no, which is alarming considering he entered training camp as a potential rotational defender. The other issue is that Carter’s one-year, $1 million contract is fully guaranteed. The reason he doesn’t make it in this projection is that he was outplayed by Lee, Harris and Chenal, a rookie.

Cornerbacks (6): L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Chris Lammons, Jaylen Watson

The players are the same as our previous projection, but McDuffie, a rookie who was selected in the draft’s first round, entered the league’s concussion protocol during Thursday’s game. If McDuffie is not available against the Cardinals, his spot would likely go to Williams, a rookie who was selected in the fourth round. On special teams, Williams and Lammons are talented enough to be stars as four-phase contributors.

Sneed will begin the season as the nickel cornerback with Fenton as the leading man on the perimeter. Watson, a seventh-round pick, was the most positive surprise for the defense this preseason.

Safeties (4): Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, Bryan Cook, Deon Bush

As expected, Reid and Thornhill are the starters with Cook, a rookie, in the third safety role. In the preseason, the play from these four defenders demonstrated the difference in athleticism and physicality compared to the safety position a year ago. Cook ended the preseason with an interception.

Special teams (3*)
Kicker (1): Harrison Butker
Punter (1): Tommy Townsend
Long snapper (1): James Winchester
Emergency kicker (1*): Justin Reid

The entire kicking battery appears to be in good form ahead of the season opener. Butker, a six-year veteran, wants to earn his first Pro Bowl selection. In pregame repetitions during the preseason, Butker made successful field-goal kicks of 71 and 70 yards. Butker’s career long is a 58-yard field goal, but a quality kick from 60 yards or more from him could be the difference in a victory this season.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Already addressed that a couple posts ago. But I'd bet money all three of those guys do make it.

Have we entered another dimension? I always thought your football takes were actually pretty good but you seem to be suggesting here that calling for first and second round picks to make the team is a commendable accomplishment.

The other day you posted this:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 View Post
Maybe. But I'm a moron that's been right a lot more often than I've been wrong, so there's that.

Megatron: I called for the sun to rise in the East this morning and I’m doubling down and saying it’s gonna set in the West. Bet me I’m wrong?

[ToxSocks]

__________________
Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.

[SupDock]

A little surprising that Sony Michel was released today. I’m sure someone will pick him up.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

Have we entered another dimension? I always thought your football takes were actually pretty good but you seem to be suggesting here that calling for first and second round picks to make the team is a commendable accomplishment.

The other day you posted this:


Megatron: I called for the sun to rise in the East this morning and I’m doubling down and saying it’s gonna set in the West. Bet me I’m wrong?

I guess. I've been watching the NFL for about 40 years, so I've seen plenty of 1st and 2nd rounders not make it across the league.

Plus, there was a lot of chaff right here on CP about whether Karlaftis was really going to make it/was even worthy of a first-round pick. Though at 30(think he went at 30?), that's basically a high 2nd rounder, imo. Shit like, 'not bendy enough,' or 'he only got 4 sacks last year,' or whatever. As I recall I made the suggestion on draft day that he could work on his 'bend,' but look at how he played the game, which is to say he could read and react at a very high level, and he was used to playing from different spots, not just DE. In short, he's a very cerebral player, not just a really strong bull-rusher.

And early on McDuffie got some crap here as well, as I recall. Something about not being fast enough. Oh, and his arms were too short, lol.

It's all good though. I've been playing the Devil's advocate and/or soft troll since mid-season last year, and i'll probably keep it up this year, so I expect to get some shit this season.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I guess. I've been watching the NFL for about 40 years, so I've seen plenty of 1st and 2nd rounders not make it across the league.

"Not making it" implies nothing about whether they fail to make the roster in their first season.

I'm not sure there's a single first round pick in this century who was cut in their first preseason.

Last I could find was Dimitris Underwood with the Vikings in 1999 and the guy had mental health issues.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

"Not making it" implies nothing about whether they fail to make the roster in their first season.

I'm not sure there's a single first round pick in this century who was cut in their first preseason.

Last I could find was Dimitris Underwood with the Vikings in 1999 and the guy had mental health issues.

Oh hell, I couldn't remember one off-hand that got cut before the end of preseason. I meant never started/maybe benched by mid-season, that sort of thing. Or even earlier. Seen lots of high picks just shit the bed basically from Day 1. Lot of guys that probably should've never been picked in the first three rounds, much less the first.

But getting back to the point, there was plenty of talk about Skyy not being tall enough, fast enough, didn't play for a big school, etc. from the get-go. Ditto McDuffie for many of the same reasons. For myself, I saw a lot of a young Tyrann Mathieu in McDuffie. Especially how smooth his hips are.

And a lot of crap about how Karlaftis wasn't going to translate to the NFL, whether it was about his lack of 'bendiness,' lack of speed, and if I remember correctly there was some talk about how he wasn't going to be able to make it because his arms were too short. Which, if I remember correctly, he's about an inch short of the NFL average, which is to say, who frikking cares?

Sure, he didn't get a lot of big numbers in college, and yeah, he's not the fastest or bendiest guy, but mentally he played at a pretty high level, and his core strength is off the charts. probably a lot of that is due to his time in water-polo, and why he can keep coming at full speed for as long as he can. Regardless, he has both a ton of lower body strength and stamina that should give him an edge throughout his career. A lot of people are going to underestimate him this season, because they just aren't going to understand how strong he is through his back/abs and lower body.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

We should all take this moment to point and laugh at the 49ers for refusing to move the **** on from Garropolo and almost outright sabotaging poor Lance before he even gets the chance to start properly.

He actually restructured his contract today to pay around $16MM with incentives and roster bonuses and it makes him a free agent next year.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Allegretti is a great guy to have at backup guard. Dude will be a starter next year somewhere. I'm fine with Reiter too, I hope to never see him, but it could be worse. OT is the concern and sadly Niang and Kinnard don't seem to be the answer.

I'd love to try and get Jenkins from the Bears, hell anything, would improve what we have at backup OT.

Niang is injured so writing him off right now would be stupid when he still has three years of low pay on his contract. Also those folks writing off Kinnard need to relax.. he was actually decent against the packers according chiefs media on twitter who watched the film so again letting a young guy with upside go would be naive. I highly doubt Prince gets snapped up if released and hopefully he can go back on the practice squad if needed.

[Megatron96]

Ah, I see the problem. In this thread I said they’ll make it. In the separate threads I said they’d all be starters by mid-season.

I can’t finish this post right now. But I get it now. Sorry for the confusion

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If they cut Kinnard they'll lose him..if they lose him to keep guys like Danny Shelton and Austin Reiter that is pretty bonheaded...and of course Chris Lammons again..so tired of special teams only guys.

I still don't get Winchester taking up a roster spot just for long snapping. Let Kelce do it and he can catch passes from out punter.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I still don't get Winchester taking up a roster spot just for long snapping. Let Kelce do it and he can catch passes from out punter.

You act like the keeping a dedicated long snapper is something only the Chiefs are doing right now. And that it's some real novelty.

If you want to talk about novelty items, look to Chris Lammons.

Long snapping isn't as easy as it looks. And if it's remotely subpar, you're getting punts blocked left and right. And this is a guy who is being used multiple times each game. It's not your 6th CB who is a gunner on ST.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I still don't get Winchester taking up a roster spot just for long snapping. Let Kelce do it and he can catch passes from out punter.

This is so much worse than your backup QB thoughts it is not even funny.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If they cut Kinnard they'll lose him..if they lose him to keep guys like Danny Shelton and Austin Reiter that is pretty bonheaded...and of course Chris Lammons again..so tired of special teams only guys.

They replayed the Iowa vs. Kentucky Bowl game this weekend. I watched Kinnard, he struggled. Iowa had 8 sacks that game. I was surprised, I don't think anyone picks him up and he will be on the practice squad.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

This is so much worse than your backup QB thoughts it is not even funny.

Hog doesn’t actually watch football. He is busy, you know doing stuff like jerking off hogs.

But I approve, because bacon is important.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If they cut Kinnard they'll lose him..if they lose him to keep guys like Danny Shelton and Austin Reiter that is pretty bonheaded...and of course Chris Lammons again..so tired of special teams only guys.

What team is going to watch Kannards preseason tape and put them on their 53? I think he easily makes the practice squad.