Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[Johnny8]

Originally Posted by Raiderhater

Inferring a specific racial bias towards black QBs to a fan base who’s QB is himself black is not “calling out bullshit”, it IS bullshit.

It wasn’t a blanket inference to the whole fan base, just to that one poster. And yes, it is bullshit. Sorry you’re offended, but that wasn’t at you.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by PurpleOrange

Fair point, besides personnel what is this years D doing that is different and/or better?

They have a better and deeper defensive line. Chris Jones is still Chris Jones (and has continued to show he can move around the line and win different ways, even from DE). Charles Omenihu is the best #2 DL mate Jones has had since Justin Houston in 2018. George Karlaftis took a large step this year and is relentles. Mike Danna improved. They're very deep in pass rushers. The NT spot is still nothing special, but it's fine. Some speculation KC may elevate Buggs this week for this matchup specifically, since he held up so well against the Ravens interior linemen for another team earlier this year.

The biggest change, though, is how good the back 7 is compared to the Kansas City defenses the Ravens have recently seen. Lajerius Sneed has made a season out of flat-out erasing #1 WRs with his physicality and stickiness. He gets some penalties for it (which is why his PFF grade and the Chiefs' PFF coverage grade in general is bad, further proving that Collinsworth's little project is a sham), but he has completely eliminated Justin Jefferson, Stafon Diggs, Davante Adams, and everyone he has followed. Literally the only TD he has given up occurred in the divisional round, and that took a plus-plus play from Allen (rolling to his left, putting a throw exactly on the money with huge velocity) and a plus-plus catch by the receiver (Shakir made an incredibly difficult, all-hands catch to scoop the pass up). Trent McDuffie has been just as dynamic and dominant in the slot. If the Chiefs decide to go with man coverage at points in this game, those 2 are great bets to handle Flowers and Beckham. And I know Bateman has good separation numbers and is dangerous on the backside. But Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are both good matchups with him (big, sticky, can run, physical, tackle well).

This is the best and deepest LB group KC has had. It has relied on Dan Sorenson and Ben Niemann in coverage spots over the past several years, and that was always an exploitable matchup. No longer the case. Nick Bolton (thanks, Ravens) is an excellent downhill MLB with great instincts and a lot of pop as a tackler. He's not awesome in space and can be exploited a bit there, but he's really smart and particularly effective coming downhill against zone read plays. Willie Gay, if he can play, is crazy fast and strong. He was a real key in limiting Allen's running ability in the first matchup with them and was a big loss in the divisional round. If he can go Sunday, he'll be important. Also is really good coming downhill. Drue Tranquill has been the real step-up for KC, though. He gives them a really reliable backup for Bolton and also a premium coverage LB they have not had before. And Leo Chenal is similar to Gay -big, fast, and strong. He's a good SLB when they're in base sets anticipating run, and has made some steps in coverage.

And KC is still really strong at S. Justin Reid is a physical guy who does what he is supposed to do, consistently. He's not a big playmaker like, say, Kyle Hamilton, but KC doesn't use him that way (playmaking opportunities have shifted to Sneed and McDuffie). I think Reid and Marcus Williams are similar type of guys. Steady, smart veterans who fill their roles really well. Mike Edwards has been really strong as the second safety and effective as the deep man. Hopefully he clears concussion protocol and is good to go for Sunday. The big surprise at S has been rookie Chamarri Conner, who was pressed into full-time action Sunday because of Edwards' early injury. The rookie 4th rounder looks like the latest Day 3 steal by KC's scouting staff. He runs well and is versatile - good tackler, can handle deep responsibilities, has good instincts.

That's a lot of words, but you asked.

To sum it up, this Chiefs' D is better at all 3 levels than it has been in any previous years. There are no glaring weak spots or exploitable matchups/holes.

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I was just looking a bit and a couple things that popped up were the Ravens being 12th highest ever after 13 weeks and then 3rd highest ever after 16 weeks (didn't go digging for week to week).... the 49ers game was in there of course, but demoralizing the Dolphins was a huge push as well and we all know how overrated they were this year, too.

And then when you put up almost 30ppg against the Browns fraud "best defense", I'm sure that goes a long way, too.

There's probably some kind of fraud multiplier effect... Dolphins put up 70 on the Broncos and beat them by 50, then the Ravens put up 50+ on the Dolphins, and ohhh boy, the Ravens must be amazing!

Stats that are so fluid after 13+ games is concerning though... blow out one team and jump 10 spots on the highest ever list.

Yeah, that's interesting for sure.

I've done a lot of work with stats, both for fun and for work, and worked with some pretty cutting edge statisticians. Which leads me to what I would argue from a semi-educated position is the biggest issue with DVOA: The sample size of a season is SO small. 17 games is a miniscule data point. Outliers can really mess with it. In situations like that, you kind of need to control the level of the outlier. Maybe DVOA has some things under the hood, behind the scenes, to do that. But it sure suggests it does not when the Miami game skewed things that much.

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

This is a reasoned take that I agree with overall. Seen some of your earlier posts in this thread and think you’re being fair.

DVOA isn’t perfect, but it’s one of the few metrics we have to adjust for a team’s situational success and quality of opponents. But like you’re alluding to, real-world considerations like matchups, scheme, and raw talent can upend the expectations DVOA would have you believe.

I do think that in this case, there won’t be a dismantling of the Ravens the way the Chiefs did to the Bills. Both because the Chiefs don’t have the same personnel as then (Tyreek) and the Ravens are just flat better than the Bills.

Agree that DVOA is useful if not perfect. I think it's easy to say the Ravens are "flat better than the Bills" but the 20 and 21 Bills had some edges, too.

The Chiefs' O is also different. KC took a blowtorch to those Bills' Ds and did whatever it wanted. Could have named its score. I don't expect that on Sunday.

KC's O also is much less required to do that than they were then.

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by Raiderhater

Absolutely perfect encapsulation of the process.

he did forget WHAT IS THERE TO DO IN MISSOURI FLYOVER STATE HAVE YOU BEEN THERE I SAW IT FROM I-70 AS I DROVE THROUGH AND THERE WAS NOTHING GOING ON FROM MY VIEW ON THE HIGHWAY TEXAS BBQ IS BETTER

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by Johnny8

It wasn’t a blanket inference to the whole fan base, just to that one poster. And yes, it is bullshit. Sorry you’re offended, but that wasn’t at you.

Oh, I’m not offended, not in the least. I’m just pointing out how ridiculous of a comment it actually was/is.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

The blowout predictions are still a little mind-boggling even if you’re picking the Ravens.

In this season in which the Chiefs were just so vulnerable and not nearly as good as we are used to, they lost a whopping one (1) game by two scores. And it was the October game in Denver that was randomly cold as **** while Mahomes was battling the flu.

And that’s the regular season team I’m talking about — one that isn’t recognizable compared to the Chiefs we’ve seen in the playoffs.

[Ebolapox]

hahaha, it's not the missouri city chiefs! (wait, that's some of our fanbase too)

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by Kiimo

he did forget WHAT IS THERE TO DO IN MISSOURI FLYOVER STATE HAVE YOU BEEN THERE I SAW IT FROM I-70 AS I DROVE THROUGH AND THERE WAS NOTHING GOING ON FROM MY VIEW ON THE HIGHWAY TEXAS BBQ IS BETTER

I feel like, even though not specifically said, all of that fits within the frame of the final stage described in the last paragraph.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Not only because it’s historically what Andy does, but because he told everyone Sunday night lol.

He said they had more plays in the Bills game plan than they’ve ever had, and didn’t have to use near as much as they expected to.

The funny thing is not even all Chiefs fans believe it... it's just part of the overarching "flip of the switch" come playoff time.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Johnny8

I actually think I've been really balanced here, so unsure where this is coming from. But yeah, is it irritating that all AA QBs are stereotyped as the same? Sure is. So when I see the same nonsense, I'm going to call it out, because that's what it is.

I can still have normal cross-talk and share objective opinions are also call out bullshit. Those two don't impact one another.

I get where you're coming from and understand how stereotypes of your QB can be annoying.

There are still analysts who try to act like Mahomes is all playground football with no ability to do anything but improvise and work outside structure, and that he'll get figured out. Some of these morons are even on TV and try to act like Josh Allen is BETTER than Mahomes (see: O'Hara, Shaun).

BUT

I don't think it's a stereotype when guys here who watch a lot of other football (Most of us) and nerd out looking at what teams are doing and not just outcomes (guilty, as are a few others) say "Jackson still is not outstanding at throwing outside the numbers in short and intermediate areas." It doesn't show up on his tape from this year.

I don't think it's a stereotype when we say "Jackson still is inconsistent with his mechanics and accuracy when he has to move and throw." He is and you can see it.

I don't think it's a stereotype, either, to compare Jackson to another dynamic dual threat QB like Jalen Hurts. 2023 Hurts had an absolutely phenomenal season and was dynamic in the run game and passing game. Yes, they are different styles of runners, with Hurts being more of a power runner with good speed (like Allen) and Jackson being more of a dynamic, explosive playmaker in space with make-you-miss abilities. But still. Dual threats. Big-time threats with their legs, who are able to be more effective as passers because of their running threats than they otherwise would.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The funny thing is not even all Chiefs fans believe it... it's just part of the overarching "flip of the switch" come playoff time.

Shit, I’m over regular season games for the most part myself. They’re fun, they’re entertaining and better than anything else I could watch on TV, but they just don’t move me emotionally anymore outside of a handful of games each year. I’m largely unbothered after losses, certainly after an hour or so.

So if I feel that way, I can only imagine how ready the team was to fast-forward to the games that actually determine if they’re going to forever write their name in history as a repeat Super Bowl champions. That’s all these guys have been thinking about re: football since last February.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The funny thing is not even all Chiefs fans believe it... it's just part of the overarching "flip of the switch" come playoff time.

Right. It's driven some by local sports media, who may or may not believe it but certainly are driving some engagement by going doom-and-gloom.

Other than 2018, when KC's talent was so overwhelming and the scheme with Mahomes at the helm and that talent was set up to just torch the most common defensive schemes prevalent at the time, the Chiefs have always had stuff in the wings waiting for the playoffs. More crisp execution. More aggression. Better performance in the red zone. Exotic looks they hadn't shown, and new wrinkles of looks they HAD shown.

And yet people continue to be surprised...

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

The blowout predictions are still a little mind-boggling even if you’re picking the Ravens.

In this season in which the Chiefs were just so vulnerable and not nearly as good as we are used to, they lost a whopping one (1) game by two scores. And it was the October game in Denver that was randomly cold as **** while Mahomes was battling the flu.

And that’s the regular season team I’m talking about — one that isn’t recognizable compared to the Chiefs we’ve seen in the playoffs.

Yeah, it's pretty wild. And that Denver game also required what, 5 Chiefs turnovers, including a muffed punt late while still down by a single score, that gave Denver the ball inside the 5? And a receiver who dropped a perfectly thrown pass in the end zone, on a miraculous play by Mahomes that still hit him in both hands, that would have tied it up?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Shit, I’m over regular season games for the most part myself. They’re fun, they’re entertaining and better than anything else I could watch on TV, but they just don’t move me emotionally anymore outside of a handful of games each year. I’m largely unbothered after losses, certainly after an hour or so.

So if I feel that way, I can only imagine how ready the team was to fast-forward to the games that actually determine if they’re going to forever write their name in history as a repeat Super Bowl champions. That’s all these guys have been thinking about re: football since last February.

Yep, Kelce's been pretty vocal about it in the past, how after the first SB, all the team wanted to do is get back to January. And with how much they were using Skyy and others this season, it was clear to me it's just one long preseason to save guys for when the games matter.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

In the range of outcomes for Sunday, even the most likely one, and the spread backs up this thought… the Baltimore Ravens are gonna have to make a stop against Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth quarter to win the game. Are you ready for that?

You can wish it weren’t true, but the odds of it are extremely high and that’s IF the Chiefs aren’t the ones leading.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

In a bit of a win/win or lose/lose regarding Mike Edwards.

On one hand, you’d love to have his experience and knack for playmaking in a game like this. On the other, Conner balled out and his speed could also prove very useful in a full time role Sunday.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Was there anything notable about those Bengals/Titans teams? They were fine teams, but that's it. They didn't go all the way, they didn't put up historic numbers during the regular season, and they weren't full of guys who will be remembered of all-time greats.

Compare to this Ravens team, which has the most victories over teams with winning records in NFL history--including the playoffs (proof: youtube.com/watch?v=vrAyCa9CDtc). They also have the most wins of 14+ points versus teams with winning records in NFL history (proof: twitter.com/FrontOfficeNFL/status/1741592576506069308). And they have at least three guys who are more likely than not to make the Hall of Fame (Harbaugh, Tucker, and Lamar) and two more who are young and already stack all pros (Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith).

And again, the Ravens as a franchise have more championship-level pedigree than the Titans, Bills, Bengals, and Eagles all put together.

All I'm saying is that if Ravens fans are confident, they have good reason to be. The only team with more of a right to be confident is... the Chiefs

Holy shit, this knuckle dragger is high as a kite on that purple drank!! Put the sizzurp down kid. Lamar a HOFer??

Your team hasn’t proved shit THIS postseason. Beat a team who drafted number 2 last year. So now you’re in here banging your chest, and straight talking ridiculousness! You say those other teams didn’t win the SB or make it to the SB. Neither has this version of the Ravens. Beating the Texans means shit. Most those teams didn’t make the SB, because Patrick vanquished them to Cancun. Same thing that’s gonna be happening on Sunday. We’re not worried about you, or your team. KC gonna come into your house, repeatedly punch your team in the mouth, and leave with another Lamar Hunt trophy.