***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[wazu]

Actually found this:

"The authors of the smaller study also found that 30 (81%) of 37 patients requiring mechanical ventilation had died by 28 days."

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

Obviously a very small sample size, but it's some data. Was suspecting that not having a ventilator probably doesn't make much difference if you are so sick that you actually need to go on a ventilator.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by wazu

Actually found this:

"The authors of the smaller study also found that 30 (81%) of 37 patients requiring mechanical ventilation had died by 28 days."

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

Obviously a very small sample size, but it's some data. Was suspecting that not having a ventilator probably doesn't make much difference if you are so sick that you actually need to go on a ventilator.

Seems logical

[RINGLEADER]

Been saying this since January -- if C19 is as easy to pass around as it seems and if you can pass it along while being asymptomatic and if you can be asymptomatic for up to two weeks before and four weeks after you are symptomatic then it is next to impossible to contain at this point.

As far as what the medical system can support in terms of sick people we will reach a breaking point fairly quickly (a few months) unless it burns out because of summer or some change occurs that makes it less likely to cause hospitalization.

This is all just math at this point. If it exponentially expands as it has in other countries then it's hard times ahead. If it can be curbed like China claims they've done or if summer slows it then the spread will be curtailed. I doubt China is having the level of success they claim since there is little that can be done to stop community spread (but for some reason they've miraculously stopped it) but maybe taking draconian measures can work. Unfortunately, pulling people out of homes and sticking them into boxes to be shipped to quarantine centers isn't likely to happen here.

I do think the virus stands a great chance of being slowed when summer arrives and since it is really breaking out so late in what would typically be a flu season then we may dodge the bullet above. SARS/MERS was resilient to this seasonal change so the similarities may unfortunately not follow the typical flu, but if it does then we'll hopefully get another six months of runway to get closer to a vaccine. Until then, expect life to change in some reasonable ways while we try to cope with the stress this puts on the health care system, commerce, and life in general.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I'm gonna guess we get all our ventilators from China and they aren't shipping us any new ones right now.

Everything from meds to masks (and the underlying components in both) come mainly from China. I know it's hard to rationalize good out of this but all things considered, while extremely bad, this could have been something closer to SARS which would have been history-changing. Hopefully there will be some fundamental changes related to the outsourcing of such things as a result of this -- and maybe, just maybe, we'll be in better position to handle the next pandemic which could very well be much, much worse than what this one may end up being.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by SupDock

What do you mean we lost safer vaccines?

The vaccine court removed liability from the pharmaceutical industry eliminating the motivation to continue to develop safer and more efficient methods for creating antibodies.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I'm gonna guess we get all our ventilators from China and they aren't shipping us any new ones right now.

we have thousands of ventilators in reserve. The issue is you won’t have the Respiratory Therapists to run them and the hospital beds available. I wrote about this earlier in the thread. Maybe you can get people like me to volunteer for the good of the community that could run the ventilators but my licsense expired a long time ago.

[Donger]

FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said Saturday that 1,583 patients have been tested by the CDC but that the government doesn't know how many patients received tests from the 2,361 specimens collected by state and local labs.

Each day the number of tests is rising, and the numbers are soon expected to dramatically jump, he said.

Federal officials say 2.1 million tests will be shipped out by Monday, with a further goal of 4 million tests to be shipped by the end of next week.

[stumppy]

There are scumbags and then there are real scumbags.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/televan...us-1202876625/

Televangelist Jim Bakker Ordered By Attorney General To Stop Selling Fake Cure For Coronavirus

Whatever televangelist Jim Bakker is selling, the New York Attorney General ain’t buying.
Lisa Landau, Chief of the Health Care Bureau, gave The Jim Bakker Show 10 days to comply with a cease-and-desist letter that tells him to stop touting an alleged cure for the coronavirus. The letter was sent Thursday to Bakker’s office and cited a Feb. 12 episode of his show that claimed a Silver Solution sold on his website would be a preventative against the coronavirus...……………..

[TribalElder]

have we cured this piece of shit sickness yet

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by TribalElder

have we cured this piece of shit sickness yet

medical professionals say 12-18 months for a best case scenerio for a vaccine.

The President says just a couple of months or soon. So there’s that.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

The vaccine court removed liability from the pharmaceutical industry eliminating the motivation to continue to develop safer and more efficient methods for creating antibodies.

This implies that vaccines don't undergo improvements. This just isn't true.

If every person who felt damaged by a vaccine could sue the manufacturer, my thought is that no one would develop vaccines in today's climate.

[suzzer99]

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

medical professionals say 12-18 months for a best case scenerio for a vaccine.

The President says just a couple of months or soon. So there’s that.

scenario, . . .

so there's that.

[TLO]

What's going on with the therapeutic trials of medications? I thought we might have some more information by now.

I want to know how Remdesivir is doing in particular. Anyone know how any of these trials are going?