***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Mecca

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...ida-story.html

It's just the flu, they always have makeshift morgues am I right?

From your link:

In normal times, city morgues can normally handle between 800 and 900 bodies at a time, city Medical Examiner spokeswoman Aja Worthy-Davis said.

So far, the morgues aren’t close to hitting that capacity, she said. But as the coronavirus death toll rises, city officials are preparing for the worst.

precautionary and also, those who die of the Chinese Coronavirus obviously have to be handled differently than other bodies...

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Donger

Population density of the USA = 87/square mile
Population density of Italy = 518/square mile

Whoa, this data has me convinced now. I guess we'll see 20,000 deaths in this country soon.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

1027 deaths x 40 = 40k deaths. That's pretty likely at this point.

I'm not talking about static number of deaths, I was specifically referring to how many deaths per 1MM total population.

To put that in perspective Italy has 124 deaths per 1MM citizens, we have 3 per 1MM. Obviously that will go up but....

At Italy's rate of 124 per 1MM we would have to have 2.6MM people die.

That how much higher Italy's death rate is compared to the US.

Make more sense now?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I'm not talking about static number of deaths, I was specifically referring to how many deaths per 1MM total population.

I suppose the fact that you aren't even clear about what you're referring to is part of why I don't put much stock into your analysis.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Considering 80% feel little to nothing? OK

Where is this coming from though? If we aren't testing the asymptomatic population then how do we know? We need tangible numbers. Otherwise your 80% is just arbitrary.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Whoa, this data has me convinced now. I guess we'll see 20,000 deaths in this country soon.

You do realize that we're already at 1,000, yes?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by penguinz

No it isn't. They have a higher population density than the US does. When it comes to disease transmission density is more important than total polulation.

We have very high population density in a few cities which is skewing the data as far as the entire country is concerned.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Where is this coming from though? If we aren't testing the asymptomatic population then how do we know? We need tangible numbers. Otherwise your 80% is just arbitrary.

Iceland's study suggests it might be around 50%.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...ding-covid-19/

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I suppose the fact that you aren't even clear about what you're referring to is part of why I don't put much stock into your analysis.

There is nothing unclear in what I posted originally -

Originally Posted by Marcellus

A better way of looking at it is the US is averaging 3 deaths /1MM total population, Italy is at ****ing 124/ 1MM.

We aren't going to ever see a 40X climb in deaths. That would be 2.6MM people dead by comparison.

And this isn't "my analysis" its from the numbers located here in the far right column.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Just trying to explain why comparing Italy to the US is ridiculous.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I suppose the fact that you aren't even clear about what you're referring to is part of why I don't put much stock into your analysis.

That my friends is gonna leave a mark.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Mecca

That my friends is gonna leave a mark.

No, it won't.

[petegz28]

Recovery numbers are starting to soar...

At this point yesterday we were 70-30 deaths to recovery

Now we are roughly 65-35 recoveries to deaths

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Donger

You do realize that we're already at 1,000, yes?

19K deaths in the next week seems unlikely.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We have officially passed Italy in total cases but as many have stated we are faring far, far better.

Part of that is they just have an older population, but have you stopped to think about why they have more deaths? We are lagging behind them on when the majority of cases have been found. Much more of their cases have a result.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

We aren't going to ever see a 40X climb in deaths. That would be 2.6MM people dead by comparison.

These two statements aren't consistent. You're comparing death rates - not deaths.

(You also edited your post to add the last sentence after I had already replied.)