***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I really wish the world would figure out the difference between a mortality rate and CFR. But I'm kind of giving up on that battle.

The CFR of this is definitely less than the current mortality rate, that's a given. But we'll never know what that actually is unless we want to test a subset of the population or do a serum test for antibodies to see if people had it and beat it.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BWillie

What a ride upsetting the overall #1 seed in China. Nobody saw this coming. Trumps bracket is shot.

I want a slow-motion montage of people coughing and hacking up phlegm set to "one shining moment."

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Donger

I think everyone gets that the number is fluid, but it's what we have as I said earlier. You didn't run the numbers based on what you say we should be using. Why not?

Because the CFR and mortality rates both have nothing to do with active cases that have not yielded a recovery or a death. That's why.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The CFR of this is definitely less than the current mortality rate, that's a given. But we'll never know what that actually is unless we want to test a subset of the population or do a serum test for antibodies to see if people had it and beat it.

Right. My point is that everyone talks about the "mortality rate" - even reputable media. They're almost all actually referring to CFRs.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I get what you're saying, but I think it's silly to say 35% of the people who get this are going to die.

That's not what I'm saying at all. But when people just divide by deaths by total cases - that tells you nothing and they are doing it wrong. They aren't achieving what their goal is to do, but they think they are.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Because the CFR and mortality rates both have nothing to do with active cases that have not yielded a recovery or a death. That's why.

Right. So you can't run those numbers. But we do have total number of cases and deaths.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Donger

They look terrible in the vacuum bag they are in. We'll see tonight.

You haven't eaten them yet? You can't be human.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Right. My point is that everyone talks about the "mortality rate" - even reputable media. They're almost all actually referring to CFRs.

Agreed. But mostly they are just guessing. And most people think the CFR is just divide deaths by total cases right now - and it's not.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

You haven't eaten them yet? You can't be human.

They arrived Tuesday late and were frozen solid (thankfully).

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Donger

Right. So you can't run those numbers. But we do have total number of cases and deaths.

But people are incorrectly interpreting the data. They conclude that Country X has the same amount of cases as US, and we have less deaths, it must be because we have better health care or we are treating them better.

That might be the case. It might not. You have to look further than that. You need to also look at the percentage of total cases that are still active. Those in intensive care. Those recovered AND deaths. The charts of when the new cases were found.

If two countries have the same amount of cases, but yet one has ten times as many recovered cases. Your conclusion will be incorrect if you are just looking at cases and deaths.

The struggle with interpreting data is real and I've seen almost nobody that is doing it right.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by BWillie

What a ride upsetting the overall #1 seed in China. Nobody saw this coming. Trumps bracket is shot.

Bigger question is how far understated are China's numbers? I would imagine, at least, they had 500,000 to 600,000 cases. Take 3% of that to get a more likely death total as well.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

They arrived Tuesday late and were frozen solid (thankfully).

I have actually never had brisket let alone burnt ends, I have also never had a poutine before anyone calls me a racist.

[burt]

Originally Posted by Donger

Sorry, but if you think that deaths per million is the really important number compared to the others....

No I don't.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Bigger question is how far understated are China's numbers? I would imagine, at least, they had 500,000 to 600,000 cases. Take 3% of that to get a more likely death total as well.

Communism is frustrating. I wish there was a better way to confirm their data. As Trump said initially, not much you can really do except accept their numbers and hope they are true.

At this point, I would definitely lean towards them being very under reported and censoring negative results.

This would mean to me, and this is just a wild guess, that their true cases & mortality rates are both higher than reported.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I have actually never had brisket let alone burnt ends,

I'm so sorry for your exclusion.