***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Part of it is because the rate of infection in the past week has been much higher here. The survivability or mortality of that group won’t be known until next week. The 100,000 cases we’re going to have by next weekend is going to yield deaths the week after that.

When all is said and done our rate of survivability is likely to be similar to other countries, the extent of how much the infection overwhelms resources (the key problem in Italy right now) notwithstanding.

If we don’t overwhelm the healthcare communities like Italy, however, the mortality rate here should be lower.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Donger

Speaking of growth:

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...5#post14865925

Did you mean globally or nationally?

Nationally.

Obviously after the data yesterday it’s trailing and the slowing down of infection is going to bring the overall number down as well. NY has done a great job of reducing the rate of growth.

Continues to be a battle against the rate of spread and access to ventilators that reduce the death rate in those hospitalized. Those are the two things we can (somewhat) control.

And FTR I hope I continue to be high in those estimates.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by lewdog

If we don’t overwhelm the healthcare communities like Italy, however, the mortality rate here should be lower.

Absolutely it will be.

Italy is even worse then the worst reporting. A lot of people are just dying in line at this point.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Nationally.

Obviously after the data yesterday it’s trailing and the slowing down of infection is going to bring the overall number down as well. NY has done a great job of reducing the rate of growth.

Continues to be a battle against the rate of spread and access to ventilators that reduce the death rate in those hospitalized. Those are the two things we can (somewhat) control.

And FTR I hope I continue to be high in those estimates.

Thanks for the clarification. I'm glad that didn't come to fruition in that time frame.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Yup not much to report. We already knew cases would go way up for the next few weeks. The story here as pointed out is our lower CFR.

why is the question? If we know the answer, then we can duplicate it more, stop doing whatever isn’t working, is it as simple as better facilities, Doctors, healthcare staff?

Example from my personal experience as a Respiratory Therapist:

I took 34 hours of science based college courses with labs at Missouri State. I did an additional year of college focused on Respiratory Therapy courses in KC at MCCC. While I did that year I did a medical residency at 7 local hospitals working 40 hours a week for free learning and experiencing real world ICU and ER issues.

I heard this week that most Respiratory Therapists in the European Union are trained for 6 months only. That includes book and lecture courses and real life hospital time experience. Some only have experience at one hospital when the graduate.

Respiratory Therapists run the ventilators keeping people alive. Integral part of any ER and trauma team. Who do you think is going to have a better chance to make a positive impact on patients? The ones educated here or the ones educated in the European Union?

[Hammock Parties]

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK revises to 20K or fewer https://t.co/V5bp18WObY #data #science

— Jason Scott Arnold (@jasonsarnold) March 26, 2020

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK revises to 20K or fewer https://t.co/V5bp18WObY #data #science

— Jason Scott Arnold (@jasonsarnold) March 26, 2020

Q

[Bwana]

Knew this was coming.

https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ne...ce-on-covid-19

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Donger

Thanks for the clarification. I'm glad that didn't come to fruition in that time frame.

Me too.

The numbers are going to start getting large very quickly but we have done a better than expected job keeping the rate down.

My big fear — and there isn’t enough data to support it yet — is that places with smaller health care capacity are going to get overwhelmed rapidly. NYC can take some steps and the feds can help. When you have 50 NYCs (on a per capita basis) happening this could get really ugly very quickly.

I have no knowledge that localities can’t support their own outbreaks but watching the numbers grow everywhere is discouraging.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Knew this was coming.

https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ne...ce-on-covid-19

Montana seems like a place that would be last to do this.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Knew this was coming.

https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ne...ce-on-covid-19

Really?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Knew this was coming.

https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ne...ce-on-covid-19

Wow! Going to refrain from commenting as what I want to write belongs in D.C.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Q

Great post. We passed stupid 100 miles back. At least they recognize it.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Knew this was coming.

https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ne...ce-on-covid-19

curious, you think the citizens of Montana will coroperate more or less with the order than those in Cali or NY?

[oaklandhater]

Top CDC official warns New York's coronavirus outbreak is just a preview

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...reak-is-just-a

Along with hard-hit New York, with some 30,000 confirmed cases, the epidemic is spreading more broadly. New Jersey has reported more than 4,400 cases. California, Michigan and Washington have all confirmed more than 2,000 cases, and Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania had all recorded more than 1,000 cases, according to state health laboratories compiled by The COVID Tracking Project, a group led by the journalist Alexis Madrigal.