Let’s talk about the Miami Dolphins

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I just perused Fin Heaven. That's a nice forum and community.

Their "what do we do" thread about the Chiefs talked a lot about cover 0 and blitzing. I don't think they watched the first half against Tampa or are very aware of how good Mahomes is when teams blitz him.

Lot of respect for KC overall.

I'd love to see Pat's reaction if Miami showed a bunch of cover 0 or 1.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I just perused Fin Heaven. That's a nice forum and community.

Their "what do we do" thread about the Chiefs talked a lot about cover 0 and blitzing. I don't think they watched the first half against Tampa or are very aware of how good Mahomes is when teams blitz him.

Lot of respect for KC overall.

No way. Their defense needs to Belichick their way through this game. Take away everything deep and try to make us go 15 plays every drive. Limit the game to as few possessions as possible. Their offense has not really been that explosive since Tua took over.

Their defense has some talent though. That'll be the interesting matchup. Chiefs offense is the best in the league at not turning it over, and the Dolphins have been great at forcing turnovers and have forced at least one in every single game.

Their special teams is also supposed to be excellent. Not just scoring points, but they do very well in return yards/not allowing return yards. If the Dolphins are in this game, they've slowed the game down, forced the Chiefs into a couple turnovers and probably made a big special teams play or two.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I just perused Fin Heaven. That's a nice forum and community.

Their "what do we do" thread about the Chiefs talked a lot about cover 0 and blitzing. I don't think they watched the first half against Tampa or are very aware of how good Mahomes is when teams blitz him.

Lot of respect for KC overall.

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

Yeah, I'm impressed by that community. It's one of the better ones I've visited the past few years.

Not many "shallow" fanboi takes over there. That's cool.

I still think KC will cruise - and if we see a lot of cover 0/blitzing early, we could see a repeat of the initial bombing we saw against Tampa. Press man against Hill with cover 0 is a great way to give up several big plays early.

[InChiefsHeaven]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah, I'm impressed by that community. It's one of the better ones I've visited the past few years.

Not many "shallow" fanboi takes over there. That's cool.

I still think KC will cruise - and if we see a lot of cover 0/blitzing early, we could see a repeat of the initial bombing we saw against Tampa. Press man against Hill with cover 0 is a great way to give up several big plays early.

Yeah, apparently none of those fans watched us dismantle TB in the first half. But I guarantee their coaches did...they won't be so stupid as to run their D like that against the Chiefs.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

About blitz vs. zone, I posted this the other day. It bears repeating:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...egit-contender

And he has become virtually indefensible against any scheme or strategy aimed at slowing him down, ranking first in QBR against zone coverage, the blitz, no blitz, pressure, no pressure, outside of the pocket, in the third quarter, in the fourth quarter and with or without motion, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

About blitz vs. zone, I posted this the other day. It bears repeating:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...egit-contender

yeah....it's splitting hairs really.....

EDIT: I think the only thing zone really does is makes the O be more patient, and slows the drive downs. this increases the opportunity for a mistake / penalty to stall the drive.....but yeah, doesn't really impact Mahomes at all...in fact, probably makes it slightly easier as his guys know how to find the holes

[reaper7534]

Like most team forums, we have our fair share of delusional fans that seem to think we can stop KC from scoring. If we did somehow slow down your passing attack, the run game is going to eat us up. We are dreadful against the run. Even average teams that run the ball with any consistency kills us.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by reaper7534

Like most team forums, we have our fair share of delusional fans that seem to think we can stop KC from scoring. If we did somehow slow down your passing attack, the run game is going to eat us up. We are dreadful against the run. Even average teams that run the ball with any consistency kills us.

Compared to Ravens/Steelers/Titans/Texans/Broncos/Raiders forums, it’s a low percentage. I’m sure it would be lower than a Chargers fan forum, if one existed, too.

I suspect KC will run more against light boxes if Edwards-Helaire is able to play than it did against Denver.

I could see Flores and co. Being confident Jones and Howard will hold up better on islands than the Tampa CB did, but suspect they won’t be as stubborn with it as Tampa was ... if they do go that route.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

Mahomes is literally the highest rated QB against EVERY tactic. Zone, man, blitz, no blitz, he's the best in the league against all of it.

So pick your poison.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

I made this point in another thread: The Chiefs have been killing teams with clock eating time of possession drives and holding the ball themselves, effectively keeping Pat ON the field.

I didn't go look at all their games, but if you look at what was billed as the "biggest" games: Ravens they were +6 in TOP....they DESTROYED the Bills in TOP by like 14 mins, 2nd Raiders Game +6, Bucs game +13 mins. Any time a big game has come up, it is the Chiefs that dominated the TOP and limited their opponents, giving their competition less drives to score, because they know the Chiefs offense is going to score on 5-7 drives every game regardless. Less drives for the opponents only increases the odds that they cannot keep up, it doesn't make it better.....it's also a function of trying to eliminate the long ball (except for TB of course), which means that Pat is shredding them on the underneath stuff when he needs to....pick your poison!

While there is no sound recipe for beating the Chiefs, if you look at their history since Pat took over, it's actually the opposite: with exception to the Colts, each team that won against the Chiefs did so by outscoring them and forcing a ton of mistakes. Exactly once in two years was a team able to win by "slowing" it down (Indy last year)....The only team to beat him that didn't have to score 30 (other than the Colts) was the Chargers in 2018, who had to score 29 to do it

So, the implication here is that you have to put up 30 points and force a boatload of mistakes to beat the Chiefs, and the "slow the game down" has (a) proven not to work; (b) is just some media rhetoric that everyone for some reason seems to believe; and (c) fat chance that the Dolphins are going to be able to replicate it (not impossible by any means, but very unlikely)

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I made this point in another thread: The Chiefs have been killing teams with clock eating time of possession drives and holding the ball themselves, effectively keeping Pat ON the field.

I didn't go look at all their games, but if you look at what was billed as the "biggest" games: Ravens they were +6 in TOP....they DESTROYED the Bills in TOP by like 14 mins, 2nd Raiders Game +6, Bucs game +13 mins. Any time a big game has come up, it is the Chiefs that dominated the TOP and limited their opponents, giving their competition less drives to score, because they know the Chiefs offense is going to score on 5-7 drives every game regardless. Less drives for the opponents only increases the odds that they cannot keep up, it doesn't make it better.....it's also a function of trying to eliminate the long ball (except for TB of course), which means that Pat is shredding them on the underneath stuff when he needs to....pick your poison!

While there is no sound recipe for beating the Chiefs, if you look at their history since Pat took over, it's actually the opposite: with exception to the Colts, each team that won against the Chiefs did so by outscoring them and forcing a ton of mistakes. Exactly once in two years was a team able to win by "slowing" it down (Indy last year)....The only team to beat him that didn't have to score 30 (other than the Colts) was the Chargers in 2018, who had to score 29 to do it

So, the implication here is that you have to put up 30 points and force a boatload of mistakes to beat the Chiefs, and the "slow the game down" has (a) proven not to work; (b) is just some media rhetoric that everyone for some reason seems to believe; and (c) fat chance that the Dolphins are going to be able to replicate it (not impossible by any means, but very unlikely)

I don't disagree exactly; but the problem with just trying to outshoot the Chiefs is that you've got to have the horses to do so.

I mean, The Dolphins for example do not have the skill position talent to try to air it out and win a shootout. They just don't, and if they try, they're going to lose by 50.

I know the tendency is to look at the '18 Patriots and Rams games, but those were also stellar offenses.

And our defense was laughably bad at that.

I don't see any offense at the moment that can try to win a shootout with KC. Maybe GB on a good day?

No, your best bet right now is to run the ball, play keep away, and be able to rush 4 and get to Patrick. And offensively you need to pretty much be perfect.

[ROYC75]

Chiefs (11-1) at Dolphins (8-4)
Opening line: Chiefs -7.5

One reason you might not want to bet against Miami in this spot because the Dolphins are 9-3 ATS on the season, which is the best mark in the NFL (The Steelers could tie that mark on Monday if they cover against Washington). The Dolphins are also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 games as an underdog, including winning and covering in their past three. The Dolphins also seem to do pretty well in December at home, going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 December home games. As for the Chiefs, you probably don't want to bet on an upset here and that's because the Chiefs are 18-2 straight up in the past 20 games where they were favored by a touchdown or more. However, they're just 9-10-1 ATS in those games.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by ROYC75

Chiefs (11-1) at Dolphins (8-4)
Opening line: Chiefs -7.5

One reason you might not want to bet against Miami in this spot because the Dolphins are 9-3 ATS on the season, which is the best mark in the NFL (The Steelers could tie that mark on Monday if they cover against Washington). The Dolphins are also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 games as an underdog, including winning and covering in their past three. The Dolphins also seem to do pretty well in December at home, going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 December home games. As for the Chiefs, you probably don't want to bet on an upset here and that's because the Chiefs are 18-2 straight up in the past 20 games where they were favored by a touchdown or more. However, they're just 9-10-1 ATS in those games.

I don't give a shit about the spread