Taylor: 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Chiefs’ 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

By Nate Taylor

https://theathletic.com/3545850/2022...eight-rookies/

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — One of the hardest days in the NFL every year will occur Tuesday, the league’s mandatory roster cutdown deadline, the annual day when many players on the roster bubble leave a team’s training facility for the final time.

The Chiefs, yet again this year, know they are one of the league’s top Super Bowl contenders. After a traditional away-from-home training camp and a successful tour through the preseason, the Chiefs’ quantity of quality players will make the decisions leading up to Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline difficult. One decision to keep a player on the initial 53-man roster means another player, perhaps at another position, could be cut then join another team — as soon as this week — and become a contributor this season.

“It’s such a physical sport — and it’s such a long season,” general manager Brett Veach said Thursday on the Chiefs’ local TV broadcast during the team’s preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers. “We talk about it as a (personnel) staff all the time. When you look at your eight, ninth (offensive) lineman and you look at your fifth linebacker or your sixth receiver, those guys are really going to end up starting (or) playing valuable minutes throughout the course of the season.”

Similar to this time last year, the Chiefs have about 60 players who have value. The team appeared to still have about six roster spots available to be won when Thursday’s exhibition started. Following the game, three different players from our previous projection earlier this month have elevated themselves to be in position to earn a place on the Chiefs’ roster.

Below is our final 53-man roster projection, which included the reasons why some players, particularly a few veterans, earned the last roster spots over their younger teammates.

Note: Per usual, starters are designated in italics.

Spoiler!

OFFENSE (26)
Quarterbacks (2): Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne

This projection is going to mildly anger Chiefs fans. The reality, though, is that Henne, a 15-year veteran, was going to be a lock for the roster as long as he stayed healthy. His one-year, $2 million deal is fully guaranteed. One of the small troubling issues from the preseason is that Henne didn’t lead the Chiefs to points when he was on the field.

Meanwhile, Shane Buechele, a second-year player, was impressive in the preseason, as he finished with 31 completions on 51 attempts for 335 passing yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. The Chiefs might make a small gamble that Buechele, if he is cut, can return to the training facility in a few days as a member of the practice squad. But another team might claim him on waivers. Based on the preseason action, Buechele should probably be Mahomes’ primary backup.

All of this matters, of course, if Mahomes sustains an injury at any point this season. As for Mahomes, he enters his sixth season as arguably the league’s most talented quarterback, although his peers voted him as the NFL’s eight-best player.

Running backs (4): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, Ronald Jones

When it comes to the running backs, what I reported before training camp has remained true: The Chiefs want to have four running backs.

You could argue that last Thursday’s game was most pivotal for Jones, a five-year veteran who struggled in the preseason opener. Jones ran hard between the tackles against the Packers and finished with 43 rushing yards on eight carries. He also looked competent when catching a four-yard reception in the flat.

“There’s certainly value to having different skill levels and different players that can do different things,” Veach said Thursday of the team’s running back position. “You have Clyde and Jerick, who are so good in both the run and the pass. They’re a little smaller, and then you complement that with an Isiah Pacheco and a Ronald Jones, bigger backs that, once they square their shoulders, can really move the pile.”

Fullback (1): Michael Burton

Reid featured Burton early in the preseason, and one could argue that he has won the role of being the team’s best runner in short-yardage situations. He will also be a willing contributor on special teams.

Wide receivers (6): JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Daurice Fountain

No changes at this position. Watson and Fountain performed well in the preseason on offense and special teams, which made one of the most intriguing position battles at the start of camp become anticlimactic rather quickly.

“Everybody wants to make the team and you’re really just hoping and praying that you do, so it was a great feeling, especially with the receiver depth that we have,” Fountain said Thursday of earning the final receiving spot last year, which is likely to occur Tuesday. “It was a blessing. Hopefully the coaches think I did enough.”

Moore, the rookie who was taken in the second round, has progressed well throughout camp and the preseason. His 35-yard punt return against the Packers should secure his secondary role as the Chiefs’ primary punt returner.

Smith-Schuster didn’t record a reception in the preseason and he missed the final two games with a knee injury, so his role within the offense will likely be a mystery to the Arizona Cardinals leading up to the opener.

Tight ends (4): Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Jody Fortson, Noah Gray

The biggest swing on offense in this projection is that Bell remains on the initial roster instead of Buechele. Bell, an eight-year veteran, had surgery Tuesday to repair the hip flexor injury he suffered in the preseason opener. With him expected to be out for a few weeks, Bell could be placed on the injured-reserve list.

Kelce, a future Hall of Famer, will look to record at least 1,000 receiving yards for a seventh consecutive season, a feat that has never occurred for a tight end in the league’s history.

Offensive linemen (9): Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie, Nick Allegretti, Austin Reiter, Geron Christian, Prince Tega Wanogho

A surprise is that the depth at this position is not as strong as I anticipated at the start of camp. Roderick Johnson, a five-year veteran, was projected to be the backup left tackle. Instead, he struggled once the team started having padded practices and was released Saturday. This projection also doesn’t include rookie right tackle Darian Kinnard, who should return on the practice squad for a “redshirt year” so he can develop his technique at both tackle and guard. Wanogho, a second-year player, was solid in the final two preseason games to earn the final roster spot.

The Chiefs at least have reliable backups in Allegretti and Reiter, a center who played much of Thursday’s game at right guard. On the waiver wire, the Chiefs likely will look to claim another tackle. The good news for coach Andy Reid and Mahomes is that the Chiefs might have the league’s best starting offensive line.

DEFENSE (24)

Defensive linemen (9): Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Carlos Dunlap, George Karlaftis, Mike Danna, Tershawn Wharton, Danny Shelton, Khalen Saunders

Thursday’s game provided an opportunity for young defensive ends such as Joshua Kaindoh, Malik Herring and Azur Kamara to prove they are worthy of the last roster spot in this group. But the trio of defenders were not impressive enough against the Packers.

Honestly, the Chiefs still have more talented defensive tackles than defensive ends. Shelton, an eight-year veteran, played only a few snaps in the preseason, but he should be an imposing defender in the middle of the line. Much of the season will come down to how valuable Karlaftis, a rookie, and Dunlap, a 13-year veteran, are as part of the Chiefs’ pass rush. A first-round pick, Karlaftis was stellar in the preseason in showcasing his strength and athleticism.

The leader of the group is Jones, the seventh-year veteran who is the most-tenured member of the defense. He was voted by his peers as the league’s 39th-best player.

Linebacker (5): Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Elijah Lee, Darius Harris, Leo Chenal

As expected, Bolton and Gay were dominant in the preseason. The biggest winner from Thursday’s game was Harris, the third-year veteran who appears to be the backup middle linebacker. Harris finished the game with three tackles, including one behind the line of scrimmage.

“It felt good and I just got off to a hot start,” Harris said following Thursday’s game. “After that first tackle, I just built confidence and it came to me after that. Obviously I feel like I’ve put enough (good production) on film and hopefully I make the 53-man roster. It would definitely be an honor to make the cut and be on the active roster throughout the entire season.”

As it relates to Jermaine Carter Jr., the fifth-year veteran who signed with the Chiefs this offseason, can I ask you a question: Do you remember him having an impressive snap in the preseason? The answer, I believe, is no, which is alarming considering he entered training camp as a potential rotational defender. The other issue is that Carter’s one-year, $1 million contract is fully guaranteed. The reason he doesn’t make it in this projection is that he was outplayed by Lee, Harris and Chenal, a rookie.

Cornerbacks (6): L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Chris Lammons, Jaylen Watson

The players are the same as our previous projection, but McDuffie, a rookie who was selected in the draft’s first round, entered the league’s concussion protocol during Thursday’s game. If McDuffie is not available against the Cardinals, his spot would likely go to Williams, a rookie who was selected in the fourth round. On special teams, Williams and Lammons are talented enough to be stars as four-phase contributors.

Sneed will begin the season as the nickel cornerback with Fenton as the leading man on the perimeter. Watson, a seventh-round pick, was the most positive surprise for the defense this preseason.

Safeties (4): Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, Bryan Cook, Deon Bush

As expected, Reid and Thornhill are the starters with Cook, a rookie, in the third safety role. In the preseason, the play from these four defenders demonstrated the difference in athleticism and physicality compared to the safety position a year ago. Cook ended the preseason with an interception.

Special teams (3*)
Kicker (1): Harrison Butker
Punter (1): Tommy Townsend
Long snapper (1): James Winchester
Emergency kicker (1*): Justin Reid

The entire kicking battery appears to be in good form ahead of the season opener. Butker, a six-year veteran, wants to earn his first Pro Bowl selection. In pregame repetitions during the preseason, Butker made successful field-goal kicks of 71 and 70 yards. Butker’s career long is a 58-yard field goal, but a quality kick from 60 yards or more from him could be the difference in a victory this season.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

We should all take this moment to point and laugh at the 49ers for refusing to move the **** on from Garropolo and almost outright sabotaging poor Lance before he even gets the chance to start properly.

They know Lance isn't good. Either he shocks everybody including his coaches and plays well or he's replaced by week 6.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by -King-

They know Lance isn't good. Either he shocks everybody including his coaches and plays well or he's replaced by week 6.

From what I can tell he hasn’t been good preseason and they have a stout defense. Perfect scenario for a QB like Jimmy. Just like in 2019.

Weird they decided to hitch the wagon to Lance.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by -King-

What team is going to watch Kannards preseason tape and put them on their 53? I think he easily makes the practice squad.

If we release/cut him he can be signed to any team's PS. We are 28th, I think, on the waiver priority.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

From what I can tell he hasn’t been good preseason and they have a stout defense. Perfect scenario for a QB like Jimmy. Just like in 2019.

Weird they decided to hitch the wagon to Lance.

It never made sense to anyone but then. The idea of a gunslinger sounds good. But he barely had any experience. Definitely nothing that justifies trading the farm weeks before the draft.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by -King-

What team is going to watch Kannards preseason tape and put them on their 53? I think he easily makes the practice squad.

I asked the very same question earlier in this thread and didn't get a response. Nobody is putting that guy on their 53.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

If we release/cut him he can be signed to any team's PS. We are 28th, I think, on the waiver priority.

Any team that picks him up off waivers has to put him on their 53.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Niang is injured so writing him off right now would be stupid when he still has three years of low pay on his contract. Also those folks writing off Kinnard need to relax.. he was actually decent against the packers according chiefs media on twitter who watched the film so again letting a young guy with upside go would be naive. I highly doubt Prince gets snapped up if released and hopefully he can go back on the practice squad if needed.

I get this team has had success with doing the one-year 53-man roster stash with OL guys who have physical traits and a lot of potential but don't quite know how to put it together. That's how we wound up with LDT, who didn't exactly click the greatest in his first preseason. We've also had some players who just wasted our time, though, like Kahlil McKenzie.

I think if Prince is actually that good, it's worth having him on the team and rolling the dice that Kinnard won't get signed off of waivers before we can practice squad him. In LDT and McKenzie's case, who was the steady guy we were trying to figure out if we should keep? ****ing David Mims? If Prince is David Mims, then no, we should stash Kinnard. That doesn't seem to be the case here, though.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

I asked the very same question earlier in this thread and didn't get a response. Nobody is putting that guy on their 53.

that may be true but Kinnard is a lock to make the roster and team.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

that may be true but Kinnard is a lock to make the roster and team.

Lol no he's not.

He MIGHT make the roster, but he's far from a lock.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

that may be true but Kinnard is a lock to make the roster and team.

You may be right, but I certainly don't see him as a lock. From the OP, who are you removing to make him a "lock"?

[oldman]

I agree about keeping Prince over Kinnard. Kinnard may very well develop into a passable RT, but it's not this year. The other thing you have to look at is the waiver period is only 24 hours. After that, it doesn't matter where we stand in line.

That said, I think there still may be some new faces on the team before the 1st game.

[Wilson8]

Some contracts and how that could affect Chiefs roster decisions -

QB Chad Henne is either $2M (overthecap.com) or $3.265M (spotrac.com) of dead money if cut. All money guaranteed.
Chiefs try to trade Shane Buechele and if that does not work, they waive and try to sign to Practice Squad.

LB Jermaine Carter Jr. will cost $1.77M to cut or $735K of dead money to trade with a savings of $1.035M
Chiefs make an effort to trade but probably cut and have the $1.77M of dead money.

RB Ronald Jones II would cost $750K of dead money to cut and $250 to trade.
Unless a better RB option emerges for Chiefs, Jones will make 53-man roster.

DT Taylor Stallworth will cost $300K of dead money to release and they save $747K. Trading would save $1,047,500. Chiefs try to trade or release.

OT Darian Kinnard will cost $358,404 of dead money and they would save $436,197. A trade would result in the same cap numbers.
Kinnard will be waived and maybe signed to Practice Squad.

DE Joshua Kaindoh being waived would result in $374,508 of dead money and a savings of $575,328.
DE Malik Herring being waived would result in $16,667 of dead money and a savings of $696,666
Chiefs will make a decision on value of keeping either DE or look for other options.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I get this team has had success with doing the one-year 53-man roster stash with OL guys who have physical traits and a lot of potential but don't quite know how to put it together. That's how we wound up with LDT, who didn't exactly click the greatest in his first preseason. We've also had some players who just wasted our time, though, like Kahlil McKenzie.

I think if Prince is actually that good, it's worth having him on the team and rolling the dice that Kinnard won't get signed off of waivers before we can practice squad him. In LDT and McKenzie's case, who was the steady guy we were trying to figure out if we should keep? ****ing David Mims? If Prince is David Mims, then no, we should stash Kinnard. That doesn't seem to be the case here, though.

I like Prince but imo there's no point in keeping him and Christian as they are effectively the same level of player. Kinnard showed improvement in the packers game and that 4 year cost controlled contract has to count for something. How many tackles do we have under contract for more than one year? Only Kinnard? That has to be a factor too.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

From what I can tell he hasn’t been good preseason and they have a stout defense. Perfect scenario for a QB like Jimmy. Just like in 2019.

Weird they decided to hitch the wagon to Lance.

I read yesterday Jimmy signed a one year deal.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

that may be true but Kinnard is a lock to make the roster and team.

Wait, are you saying he’s a lock to make the 53? I’d like to hear that reasoning because I strongly disagree that he’s a lock.