***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

US passed 500,000 test mark today

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

The US processed 101,000 tests today. Of which 83,000 were negative.

1/5 of the tests in the US done in a day? Damn, I hope that means we are getting ahead of it.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

curious, you think the citizens of Montana will coroperate more or less with the order than those in Cali or NY?

It's hard to say, but we're about to find out. My guess is for the most part yes.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan

1/5 of the tests in the US done in a day? Damn, I hope that means we are getting ahead of it.

It sticks out to me that of 100,000 people that needed a test roughly only 20% of them tested positive..

[lewdog]

Arizona still not giving shelter in place orders.

Dumb.

[cdcox]

Here is a survey of experts and where they think things are headed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...still-unclear/

The median best prediction of the experts is 248,000 deaths in the US in 2020, up from an estimate of 200,000 deaths made by the same panel a week ago. Maybe things won't get this bad, but I think mentally people should think in those terms to prepare themselves and to take this seriously.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bwana

I'm surprise it took this long. The good thing is, a guy can still get out and fish and ATV without dodging the law, which is just as well. I'm not sure if people have figured out that the liquor store are going to be closed yet, but when they do, watch out. I saw this coming a week ago so I stocked up when there was nobody in the stores. Tomorrow is going to be a body wash with people flocking in trying to get the last minute bottle.

Ontario is deeming the Booz stores as essential which I thought was weird.

[TLO]

Check this out..

‘Lifesaving’ ventilator device developed by Prisma Health gets emergency FDA approval

A team of doctors at Prisma Health has developed a device that allows a single ventilator to be used on up to four patients, potentially saving thousands of lives in the midst of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

On Wednesday, March 25, Prisma Health officials announced that the device, dubbed the VESper™, or ventilation expansion splitter, had received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

“We believe the device can be lifesaving,” said Peter Tilkemeier, chair of the Department of Medicine at Prisma Health-Upstate.

Produced using 3D printing technology, the device is developed with material already used in existing medical devices and produced at minimal cost.

Upstate Business Journal: Greenville-based laboratory named first SC commercial laboratory validated for COVID-19 testing

Prisma Health experts are now working with national COVID-19 teams that have no more ventilator capacity and can initiate emergency use of the prototype.

Emergency use authorization can offer critical care patients access to a medical device that hasn’t gone through normal FDA approval, Tilkemeier said at a news conference late Wednesday. It’s only used when no comparable or satisfactory alternative options are available.

Hospitals around the country are already facing a critical shortage of ventilators, which help patients breathe and can mean the difference between life or death for those suffering from the most severe respiratory effects of the novel coronavirus.

Nationally, more than 65,285 cases of the virus have been reported, and at least 926 people have died, according to a John Hopkins University database tracking the spread of the outbreak.

It was a Prisma Health emergency room physician who first came up with the idea of using a single machine on multiple people, according to Marjorie Jenkins, chief academic officer for Prisma Health-Upstate and dean of the University of South Carolina School of Medicine Greenville.

Prisma coronavirus ventilator
The VESper™ device being tested on medical manikins at Prisma Health’s Healthcare Simulation Center. -Provided
Working collaboratively with her husband, a software engineer, and a Prisma Health pulmonologist, the trio began developing specifications for a “Y” splitter tubing that could be easily produced on a 3-D printer.

“Immediately, we realized we had an opportunity to impact patient outcomes all over the country, and potentially beyond the U.S.,” Jenkins said.

Physicians used Prisma Health’s Healthcare Simulation Center to begin testing the VESper™ device with medical manikins, allowing for the simulation of multiple clinical scenarios. The device was able to deliver the appropriate breathing parameters without difficulty, officials said.

With Jenkins’ help, the team was able to secure FDA approval within a matter of days.

“It truly has taken a village to develop this device,” Jenkins said.

Anyone can download the source code and printing specifications for the device. Hospitals can apply by registering on Prisma Health’s website. The health system is also collaborating with other companies such as HP Inc. and its Digital Manufacturing Network to quickly scale 3D production and distribution to COVID-19 “hot spots” designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Specifications for the device can even be shared globally, Tilkemeier said.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by TLO

It sticks out to me that of 100,000 people that needed a test roughly only 20% of them tested positive..

I don’t know what the false negative rate is, I have been trying to find it.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Ontario is deeming the Booz stores as essential which I thought was weird.

Really?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Really?

KC is same.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I don’t know what the false negative rate is, I have been trying to find it.

For one type of test:

It has conducted validation studies that compared its test with PCR, using samples from 114 infected patients and 126 uninfected controls. The test scored highly in terms of specificity. “We had a true negative rate of 100% — zero false positives,” says Gunther Burgard, medical director at Pharmact. Its sensitivity was lower, however, as the IgM response does not offer a strong initial signal. During the early stage of the infection (days 4–10), the IgM component of the test provides a sensitivity of just 70%. This rises rapidly to 92.3% between days 11 and 24, and the IgG component of the test offers a sensitivity of 98.6% during this phase of the infection. Overall, the test has a false negative rate of 13%, Burgard says.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Really?

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/what-s-es...open-1.4865668

Number 4 but looking at the list pretty much everything deemed essential, we are going to get kicked in the teeth when it hits us hard.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Here is a survey of experts and where they think things are headed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...still-unclear/

The median best prediction of the experts is 248,000 deaths in the US in 2020, up from an estimate of 200,000 deaths made by the same panel a week ago. Maybe things won't get this bad, but I think mentally people should think in those terms to prepare themselves and to take this seriously.

Yeah and in the UK they said 250,000 deaths to less than 20k.

Nobody seems to know anything. I appreciate the people trying to project this stuff, but they legitimately have no idea

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Arizona still not giving shelter in place orders.

Dumb.

I have thought about this before but since there is around 500 cases in AZ according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html what is the number that a state should put in a shelter in place order?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by cdcox

For one type of test:

It has conducted validation studies that compared its test with PCR, using samples from 114 infected patients and 126 uninfected controls. The test scored highly in terms of specificity. “We had a true negative rate of 100% — zero false positives,” says Gunther Burgard, medical director at Pharmact. Its sensitivity was lower, however, as the IgM response does not offer a strong initial signal. During the early stage of the infection (days 4–10), the IgM component of the test provides a sensitivity of just 70%. This rises rapidly to 92.3% between days 11 and 24, and the IgG component of the test offers a sensitivity of 98.6% during this phase of the infection. Overall, the test has a false negative rate of 13%, Burgard says.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2

Thanks.