***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Shows 1,297 so far via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100 more than the numbers posted by that dude. It was probably accurate as of that tweet... but the day isnt over...

Yes, but I can't find where that site was starting from.

So hard to tell.

[LiveSteam]

OMG ^^^ There he is

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by cdcox

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by TLO

So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.

I think an interesting comparison is a look at the rate of infection when comparing Kansas and Missouri. Kansas implemented social distancing (and other measures) much earlier than Mizzou. Kansas actually had cases before Missouri (and the first death between the two states), but the trajectory of the two states are wildly different. Kansas, as of today, is at 168 cases, and Missouri is currently at 502 cases. Sixty two percent of the cases in Kansas are in the KC metro area (Johnson County, Wyandotte, and Leavenworth Counties).

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Yes, but I can't find where that site was starting from.

So hard to tell.

Doesn’t matter, we are talking total deaths so far. We are up to 1300 now.

And if you take the total from yesterday (since they are gmt +0) you get the starting point for them.

1027 was there starting point for this website, finished with 1295 (+268) which was higher than yesterday’s rate of 247, which was higher than the 225 deaths the day before.

[SnakeXJones]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Where's Snake Plissken when you need him?

[BigRedChief]

Is this a fair analysis?

The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations.
We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain. pic.twitter.com/cZhK9afPFr

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 26, 2020

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

The problem with the US is we have 50 states with all different rules reacting at different times. A uniform set of rules would help. Why hasn’t the US grounded domestic flights yet?

— Jeff Levy (@Jeffrey_Levy) March 27, 2020

We really need a national shutdown like yesterday all the states having their own rules isn't helping any one in the long term.

Freedom isn’t free

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Doesn’t matter, we are talking total deaths so far. We are up to 1300 now.

And if you take the total from yesterday (since they are gmt +0) you get the starting point for them.

1027 was there starting point for this website, finished with 1295 (+268) which was higher than yesterday’s rate of 247, which was higher than the 225 deaths the day before.

well....shit

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

I think an interesting comparison is a look at the rate of infection when comparing Kansas and Missouri. Kansas implemented social distancing (and other measures) much earlier than Mizzou. Kansas actually had cases before Missouri (and the first death between the two states), but the trajectory of the two states are wildly different. Kansas, as of today, is at 168 cases, and Missouri is currently at 502 cases. Sixty two percent of the cases in Kansas are in the KC metro area (Johnson County, Wyandotte, and Leavenworth Counties).

Missouri has 2 large urban centers and Kansas has zero. That's got to have something to do with the difference.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Is this a fair analysis?

The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations.
We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain. pic.twitter.com/cZhK9afPFr

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 26, 2020

Wrong

People like you keep screaming about tests per capita, now do the same for the rest. Bunch of confirmation bias

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by cdcox

The 500 to 800K cases are heavily weighted to early-stage cases because of the exponential growth of this thing. There is a time lag -- around 7 days -- between an early infection and a serious case. I think your 2.5% serious cases is likely a significant under estimate.

To determine the serious case fraction it would be better to look at a place where they are doing more testing and the epidemic was more mature -- like South Korea.

Analyzing approximately 19,000 cases of REPORTED infection (again, totals rates with asymptomatic infection will be higher) in Spain they found:

0 to 10 — 129 cases (.68%), 34 hospitalized (26.36%), 1 in ICU (.78%), 0 death (0%)
11 to 19 — 221 cases (1.17%), 15 hospitalized (6.79%), 0 in ICU (0%), 1 death (.55%)
20 to 29 — 1,285 (6.78%), 183 hospitalized (14.24%), 8 in ICU (.62%), 4 death (.31%)
30 to 49 — 5,127 (27.04%), 1,028 hospitalized (20.05%), 55 in ICU (1.07%), 12 death (.23%)
50 to 69 — 6,045 (31.89%), 2,166 hospitalized (35.83%), 221 in ICU (3.66%), 83 death (1.37%)
70+ — 6,152 (32.45%), 3,388 hospitalized (55.07%), 199 in ICU (3.24%), 705 death (11.46%)

Totals: 35.94% hospitalized, 2.55% in ICU, 4.25% death

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Wrong

People like you keep screaming about tests per capita, now do the same for the rest. Bunch of confirmation bias

She has an ax to grind.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31...ency-response/

[DaFace]

Anyone heard from OTWP today?

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Is this a fair analysis?

The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations.
We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain. pic.twitter.com/cZhK9afPFr

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 26, 2020

I’d like to see this based on population.

China is either lying, an outlier, or lower because they take you away in a box if you go outside.