Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[DJ's left nut]

If we're gonna try to force Carpenter in at 3b, I'm not completely convinced that Jose Martinez can't be a .850 OPS hitter at 1b. His frame has a ton of raw power and his approach is among the best on the team. He's going to fall into funks because he's gigantic and that's a lot of moving parts, but Hosmer's just as bad in that regard because he's never been a 'quiet' hitter. He's going to be streaky as all hell also.

And Martinez, with a little practice, will provide the biggest damn catch radius in all of baseball at 1b. He's a gigantic human being.

Hosmer's a little safer bet and he's LH so he'll have the platoon advantage more often, but there's a real chance that he gets $250+ million on the open market. No thanks - if you're not going to get a superstar, don't just spend money on mediocre.

Hosmer's not a superstar. He's a fine player who's defensive skills are vastly overrated and who's swing gets too long for long stretches pretty much annually. He's going to be terrible for 6 weeks every year. The only question is whether or not he has enough hot streaks in between to get to 3.5 Wins or if he's just going to be a shade above replacement level.

I suspect the latter will happen as often as the former. That's not a guy you throw $250 million and a first round pick at (with an opt out after 3-4 years, I'm sure; Boras client). You price enforce if he hovers around $18 million and 5 years (he won't) and if the market never comes together, you circle back.

If it does, you save your Machado money for, y'know, Machado. Or you suck it up and absorb the Stanton deal.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If we're gonna try to force Carpenter in at 3b, I'm not completely convinced that Jose Martinez can't be a .850 OPS hitter at 1b. His frame has a ton of raw power and his approach is among the best on the team. He's going to fall into funks because he's gigantic and that's a lot of moving parts, but Hosmer's just as bad in that regard because he's never been a 'quiet' hitter. He's going to be streaky as all hell also.

And Martinez, with a little practice, will provide the biggest damn catch radius in all of baseball at 1b. He's a gigantic human being.

Hosmer's a little safer bet and he's LH so he'll have the platoon advantage more often, but there's a real chance that he gets $250+ million on the open market. No thanks - if you're not going to get a superstar, don't just spend money on mediocre.

Hosmer's not a superstar. He's a fine player who's defensive skills are vastly overrated and who's swing gets too long for long stretches pretty much annually. He's going to be terrible for 6 weeks every year. The only question is whether or not he has enough hot streaks in between to get to 3.5 Wins or if he's just going to be a shade above replacement level.

I suspect the latter will happen as often as the former. That's not a guy you throw $250 million and a first round pick at (with an opt out after 3-4 years, I'm sure; Boras client). You price enforce if he hovers around $18 million and 5 years (he won't) and if the market never comes together, you circle back.

If it does, you save your Machado money for, y'know, Machado. Or you suck it up and absorb the Stanton deal.

Yeah I would far prefer Stanton or machado, or the golden goose of Bryce Harper.

But I'm going on the normal assumption that they won't do that so I'm looking around

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think they actually need 2 big bats. I'm hesitant in Hosmer at first but would be interested if he gets free from KC.

I'd imagine they're gonna have to trade for a big bat if they want one and I'm not sure who that would be

I agree. We need two bats. One we can buy, the other we will have to trade for and give up some good starting pitching.

3B/1B/RF targets should give us some flexibility on trade or buy.

[bdj23]

KC sports radio is about to have aneurysm on the thought of Hosmer going to STL.

[thegame214]

Originally Posted by BDj23

KC sports radio is about to have aneurysm on the thought of Hosmer going to STL.

They are definitely gonna be aggressive in getting him

[BigRedChief]

Bernie on our bulletproof manager:

The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to give Matheny some help to try and make him smarter and better. In less than two years they’ve booted most of the coaches, and hired a bunch of new coaches: Mike Shildt, Mike Maddux, Bryan Eversgerd, Oliver Marmol and Willie McGee. And the Cards sweet-talked third-base coach Jose Oquendo into returning from exile to sharpen the fundamental baseball that turned slovenly under Matheny’s watch.

What’s the expression?

It takes a village to raise a baseball manager.

Meanwhile …

Let’s compare some situations, shall we?

1. JOHN FARRELL AND MIKE MATHENY

Farrell led Boston to a World Series championship in 2013, and he badly out-managed Matheny in that Fall Classic. The Red Sox won the tough AL East in 2016, and again in 201 7 … with 93 victories each season. Over the last two seasons only Cleveland won more games than Boston in the AL.

The Cardinals? Well, they missed making the playoffs in 2016 and 2017 … the first time they’d slipped into a two-year rut since 2007 and 2008.

Farrell: FIRED.

Matheny: No worries; three-year contract extension following the 2016 campaign … a just reward for having the win total drop by 14 from the season before and the failure to qualify for the postseason.

2. DUSTY BAKER AND MIKE MATHENY

Washington had never won consecutive NL East division titles until hiring Baker before the 2016 season. With Baker using his considerable people skills to smooth clubhouse animus, the Nationals won their division two years in a row, stacking up 95 and 97 victories respectively. The two-year total (192) was only four wins less than Cleveland’s MLB-best 196.

The Cardinals, coming off a 100-win campaign in 2015, dropped to 86 wins in 2016 and managed only 83 victories to finish in third place in 2017.

Baker: FIRED.

Matheny: The Beloved Leader of Men is all good.

3. JOE GIRARDI AND MIKE MATHENY

The retired Yankees’ catcher became the Bombers’ manager in 2008, won the World Series in 2009, captured three AL East titles, made it to the postseason five times, never did worse than post 84 wins in a season. This season a young New York team stalked the Red Sox, finished with 91 wins, made the playoffs, and nearly toppled the heavily favored Houston Astros before succumbing in Game 7 of the AL Championship Series. During Girardi’s term as manager, the Yankees led the majors with 910 regular-season wins. And many considered his work in 2017 to be the finest of Girardi’s career.

Girardi: FIRED.

Matheny: Nothing to see here. Bill DeWitt Jr. is pleased with his manager.

4. TERRY COLLINS AND MIKE MATHENY

After the Cubs kicked the Cardinals’ arses in the 2015 NLDS, the Cubs took on the New York Mets in the 2015 NL Championship Series. And in a true upset, Collins managed the Mets to a four-game sweep of the Cubs. The Mets reached the World Series for the first time since 1999 (but lost to Kansas City) then followed through by claiming an NL wild card spot in 2016.

Cardinals … evicted by the Cubs in the 2015, no postseason in 2016.

Collins: GONE.

Matheny: Has the job security of a U.S. Supreme Court justice.

JOHN MALLEE AND JOHN MABRY

Mallee was the Cubs’ hitting coach in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Over that three-season period the Cubs were No. 5 in the majors in runs scored. They beat up on the Cardinals pitching staff to win the 2015 NLDS and advance to the NLCS. In 2016, the Cubs were third in MLB in runs, won 103 games and dumped the Cardinals out of first place in the NL Central, and proceeded to win the first World Series for the franchise sine 1908. The Cubs took the final two games in Cleveland by scoring 17 runs. This season the Cubs were 2nd in the NL in runs, won 92 games and a second consecutive NL Central title, and competed in the NLCS for the third consecutive season.

The Cardinals: With Mabry as batting coach, the team ranked 13th in the majors in runs from 2015 through 2017. The Cardinals struggled offensively in 2015 finishing 24th in the majors in runs. After rebounding to do well offensively in 2016, the Cardinals slumped to No. 13 in runs scored this season. In head-to-head matchups between the Cubs and Cardinals over the last three seasons, the Cubs won 35 games and lost 26 … in large part because the Mabry offense batted .226, slugged .376, hit into 41 double plays, struck out in 25.4 percent of its plate appearances and averaged only 3.9 runs per game.

Mallee: FIRED. “At some point, you want to send a new message,” Maddon told reporters.

Mabry: The only Matheny associate who has been in place continuously since Matheny became the manager in 2012, Mabry survived the coaching-staff purge of 2017. Was there ever any doubt about that?

[BigRedChief]

ST. LOUIS • Unsure how much he'd be able to pitch next season and unable to work out a palatable deal for them, the Cardinals released former All-Star closer Trevor Rosenthal on Monday and made the righthander a free agent, though he'll spend much of the coming year recovering from elbow surgery.

There is no way in hell there is not more to this story. Maybe they are so pissed at Meathead burning him out like all his relievers, maybe his agent told them to forget signing him, he was one of the selfish players in the locker room. Etc. etc.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

ST. LOUIS • Unsure how much he'd be able to pitch next season and unable to work out a palatable deal for them, the Cardinals released former All-Star closer Trevor Rosenthal on Monday and made the righthander a free agent, though he'll spend much of the coming year recovering from elbow surgery.

There is no way in hell there is not more to this story. Maybe they are so pissed at Meathead burning him out like all his relievers, maybe his agent told them to forget signing him, he was one of the selfish players in the locker room. Etc. etc.

They weren't going to give him a QO, so why waste money on a guy who was going to be in rehab all year and take up a spot on the 40 man, costing them a player in the Rule 5 draft.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

They weren't going to give him a QO, so why waste money on a guy who was going to be in rehab all year and take up a spot on the 40 man, costing them a player in the Rule 5 draft.

If you are going to move on, then move on now. You need to protect other players in the minors and change the locker room chemistry at the MLB level anyway. Makes sense.

[VAChief]

Heard they dangled a young pitching prospect to the Marlins for Stanton (I'm assuming as a package). What would it take? Flaherty/Grichuck/Gyorko? Gyorko might be a good fit for them if they really want to get rid of Prado. Grichuk is a cost controlled power source that would fit in right. Flaherty is a top 100 prospect, although if they want Alcantara or Weaver instead that would be fine.

I hate that contract, but if the Marlins chipped in 50 million on the back end it looks more reasonable (maybe pay 10 million/yr the last 5 of the contract). That would put him at 18/19 mil a year on the back end, which still is a downer, but less so with expected salary inflation.

He is a risk, but the upside could be what we need to build around offensively.

[oldandslow]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

They weren't going to give him a QO, so why waste money on a guy who was going to be in rehab all year and take up a spot on the 40 man, costing them a player in the Rule 5 draft.

Yep, its the right move.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by VAChief

Heard they dangled a young pitching prospect to the Marlins for Stanton (I'm assuming as a package). What would it take? Flaherty/Grichuck/Gyorko? Gyorko might be a good fit for them if they really want to get rid of Prado. Grichuk is a cost controlled power source that would fit in right. Flaherty is a top 100 prospect, although if they want Alcantara or Weaver instead that would be fine.

I hate that contract, but if the Marlins chipped in 50 million on the back end it looks more reasonable (maybe pay 10 million/yr the last 5 of the contract). That would put him at 18/19 mil a year on the back end, which still is a downer, but less so with expected salary inflation.

He is a risk, but the upside could be what we need to build around offensively.

Where did you hear this? Blog? Reputable in the past source? Not challenging, just curious.

I dont think Stanton comes here. It's going to be his choice. He's basically a free agent that cant leave because of the no trade clause. LA makes the most sense.

That said, we are getting an additional $60 million this year from the new TV contract. $20 million next year when Waino's contract is up. I'd like for them to take on the whole contract and give up less prospects. Just write off the dead money at the end of the contract to save prospects. We fell out of the top 10 in payroll this year. Dewitt has the money and still not dig into his own pockets.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Where did you hear this? Blog? Reputable in the past source? Not challenging, just curious.

I dont think Stanton comes here. It's going to be his choice. He's basically a free agent that cant leave because of the no trade clause. LA makes the most sense.

That said, we are getting an additional $60 million this year from the new TV contract. $20 million next year when Waino's contract is up. I'd like for them to take on the whole contract and give up less prospects. Just write off the dead money at the end of the contract to save prospects. We fell out of the top 10 in payroll this year. Dewitt has the money and still not dig into his own pockets.

We've all seen this show before, by the time the 2018 season rolls around they'll add some back of the bus pieces and tell everyone they were >< this close to getting a star.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Where did you hear this? Blog? Reputable in the past source? Not challenging, just curious.

I dont think Stanton comes here. It's going to be his choice. He's basically a free agent that cant leave because of the no trade clause. LA makes the most sense.

That said, we are getting an additional $60 million this year from the new TV contract. $20 million next year when Waino's contract is up. I'd like for them to take on the whole contract and give up less prospects. Just write off the dead money at the end of the contract to save prospects. We fell out of the top 10 in payroll this year. Dewitt has the money and still not dig into his own pockets.

It was third hand information reportedly from Peter Gammons (see link below). Just said it was "dangled" not that there was interest. He can veto any trade and may not want to be here. The value per year doesn't scare me its the duration.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...o-stanton.html

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

ST. LOUIS • Unsure how much he'd be able to pitch next season and unable to work out a palatable deal for them, the Cardinals released former All-Star closer Trevor Rosenthal on Monday and made the righthander a free agent, though he'll spend much of the coming year recovering from elbow surgery.

There is no way in hell there is not more to this story. Maybe they are so pissed at Meathead burning him out like all his relievers, maybe his agent told them to forget signing him, he was one of the selfish players in the locker room. Etc. etc.

Because he's arbitration eligible and was going to get in excess of $7 million in arb. So they could either offer tender him and pay him $7-8 million to pitch 2-3 months (of limited effectiveness) or they could simply move on.

He could've been placed on the 60 day DL to free up the 40 man spot, but that's ultimately not the biggest issue. The biggest issue is the money. They probably cut him as a bit of a favor to Boras (who they work with a lot) to allow him to get out and establish his market value. I wouldn't be shocked if they end up letting him see what's out there; almost certainly something like a 1 year, $2 million deal with something like a $12 million team option for 2018 and a $2 million buyout. If the Cardinals are okay with what the market puts together for him, they may bring him back.

But I expect they'll end up signing someone like Holland for way too much and way too long instead. The inevitable Holland/Davis contract is going to piss me off something terrible. Davis is damaged and Holland just isn't that good anymore now that he's throwing 3 mph less than he was when he was elite (and may also be damaged).

Meanwhile both would come with draft pick penalties that far outsize the contributions of late inning relievers. Paying retail for a closer is a good way for a mediocre team to stay mediocre. And when the Nats gave up effectively nothing to get both Madson AND Doolittle, it just pisses me off that the Cardinals would be willing to essentially trade a 1st round pick for the privilege of giving an older reliever more money over longer term who's simply not as good.

This front office shows how little creativity they have every single year. But hey, good thing they didn't get Lynn or Rosenthal traded last year when they had teams sniffing around on them. That extra comp B pick you get for Lynn should really ease the sting there.

This is a dumb organization, fellas.