***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

So has anyone looked at the numbers to see how much population growth we’re still estimated to have even if there are hundreds of thousands of deaths from this? It’s almost like the universe knows what it is doing.

Locking people in with nothing to do will help with that too.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by notorious

So now a million are going to be dead in 3 weeks.


Sorry, I don't believe it.

I’m guessing his timeline is more over the rest of this year and until a vaccine is developed

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I don’t know how to change it.lol

1. Go to User CP ==> Edit Options
2. Scroll Down to "Thread Display Options"
3. Select dropdown from "Number of Posts to Show Per Page"

This is going to change your life.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Locking people in with nothing to do will help with that too.

There will be more children born, but the deaths of the husband through suicide or stabbing will counteract come of it.

There's only so much shit a person can take from their significant other in confined spaces.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’m guessing his timeline is more over the rest of this year and until a vaccine is developed

Fauci didn't say a million dead. Nor did he mention a timeline. He said millions of cases and 100 to 200,000 dead. I presume he means over the entire course of the outbreak.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’m guessing his timeline is more over the rest of this year and until a vaccine is developed

25 days from 1 to 1,000 also means 25 days from 1,000 to 1,000,000 (April 19th).

I should have just ignored him.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Donger

Fauci didn't say a million dead. Nor did he mention a timeline. He said millions of cases and 100 to 200,000 dead. I presume he means over the entire course of the outbreak.

It was Lone, Dong. You prob have him on ignore.

I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER THAN TO RESPOND TO THE IDIOTIC POST.

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by petegz28

the recovery number has been growing in chunks lately. And it is because it takes longer to deem someone recovered. It will continue to grow and outpace deaths over the coming weeks.

Plus, the mortality rate will be higher earlier on with a lot of breakouts in nursing homes. Probably a super high rate of death there compared to the 1-2% expected. However, unless hospitals can catch up with what they need, that rate could jump up later on.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by notorious

It was Lone, Dong. You prob have him on ignore.

I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER THAN TO RESPOND TO THE IDIOTIC POST.

Oh. No, I don't have him or anyone else on ignore.

Good to see his prediction, though. *marks calendar for April 19*

[Loneiguana]

Originally Posted by notorious

It was Lone, Dong. You prob have him on ignore.

I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER THAN TO RESPOND TO THE IDIOTIC POST.

The problem wasnt that you responded, it's that you took a hypothetical used to show why we are taking this seriously, as it is showing expontional growth, as a will happen.

Coronavirus seems to show a fairly consistent pattern when it hits countries. It grows until countries lock down like big chunks of the US did a week ago, at which point cases keep growing exponentially for ~2 weeks. Then the growth levels off, and then the new diagnosed cases cases finally level off about 30 days after quarantines start.

So we're probably going to see a few more doublings for the next week. About a week from now you'll probably see the new case rate go linear.

That pattern may be a little smudged in the US since the US is large, and different parts of the countries are getting hit and then locking down at different times.

You are demonstrated why americans are so horrible at processing the data of this virus.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by wazu

1. Go to User CP ==> Edit Options
2. Scroll Down to "Thread Display Options"
3. Select dropdown from "Number of Posts to Show Per Page"

This is going to change your life.

Thanks

[Loneiguana]

Originally Posted by Donger

Oh. No, I don't have him or anyone else on ignore.

Good to see his prediction, though. *marks calendar for April 19*

Showing the math on exponential growth isnt a prediction. Dont buy into stupidity.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Loneiguana

Showing the math on exponential growth isnt a prediction. Dont buy into stupidity.

Great, so what's your prediction?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Fauci didn't say a million dead. Nor did he mention a timeline. He said millions of cases and 100 to 200,000 dead. I presume he means over the entire course of the outbreak.

Thats the way I took what he said too.

[Loneiguana]

Originally Posted by Donger

Great, so what's your prediction?

What's yours?