Life Inflation Watch Thread - Holy Guacamole - Page 9

BIG_DADDY · 08-05-2012, 04:45 PM

I guess some of that liquidity is hitting the system now. Just went grocery shopping and stopped at the Fish Market. After that I went to Target to pick up a foam roller. $3 avocado, really? $43 a pound for King Crab up $5lb. in just the last week. $30.76 a pound for Halibut. Target had a foam roller for $26.95 plus tax for a piece of friggen foam. Hello Amazon. Went to SF the other day and got two martini’s. The damage, $30 plus tax and tip and some other fee they hitting customers up for these days to pay for their employees health care, all for a couple splashes of vodka. The black market is really going to start flourishing. I already source and buy all of my food directly in Southern Oregon and bring it back down with me. It’s all cash only, even the butcher. I would like to have those kinds of contacts here but it is a lot harder. Southern Oregon is a unique place. So what’s it like where you live and where are you seeing inflation and how are you dealing with it? Unfortunately I think this is just the very beginning especially when it comes to quality food.

**Bwana** · 08-06-2012, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Beef economics and the prices at retail are rather complex. Calves are born on grass not in feedlots and calf production is dispersed across the country. Under normal conditions those calves are kept on the farm on grass till weaning (350-400#). If the producer has grass he will evaluate prices for that weight compared to futures on 500-700 pounders and may hold them till heavier weights. They sell them to what are called backgrounders. Backgrounders are not cow/calf. They run cattle on grass till reaching weight to go into a feedlot.

What is happening now is the weaned calves are getting sold at depressed prices compared to last spring because the grass stocks are virtually nil in the main drought areas. Also, pasture cattle are dependent on water. Water is in the form of ponds...they are drying up. So what we call lightweight cattle are moving into the feedlots.

Lightweights require more corn and hay and mineral in the feedlot since they come in light. As this flows, the feedlots will begin to kill lighter weight fat cattle. When they start killing lighter cattle the supply of finished meat in the supermarket will go down. Prices at that point will rise.

Compare timelines on chicken and pork to beef and you can see why those meats react faster to cost of production changes. Chicken from egg to table is a matter of weeks, Hogs from birth to breakfast is months. Beef is over a year.

Total cows(breeding females) is down and will drop further causing more inflationary pressure on meat. Some say we could see $10 corn. That will be a huge factor on beef but even more on chicken and hogs. Example of this is its always been a rule of thumb that to feed a pig from 40 pounds to butcher weight of 220 it will require roughly 10 bushels of corn and whatever is needed in soybean meal and mineral. a corn move from $5 to $10, and beans moving from $12 to $20 will roughly double the cost to raise a pig. Producers can influence their selling price rapidly by breeding fewer sows.

Drought plays a major role on decisions here forward. We will run out of hay if we dont get fall rains to get grass growing. That is impacting us now when you see producers sell cows. Grain prices and range conditions will hit backgrounders and feedlots hard.

Consumers have an opportunity now to buy low cost beef in supermarkets because we ar killing a lot of cattle to make room for the light cattle coming in and we have a temporary glut of meat(beef)

Dunno if this helps but there it is...AgEcon 101 sorta

One other thing to consider is that little sign on the gas pump when you're filling up your car. "This product may contain up to 10% ethanol by volume." Pertaining to this topic, think about that for a minute.

**Saulbadguy** · 08-06-2012, 07:30 AM

This has been a post on this board for the past 5 years, usually around the summertime.

"PACK YOUR FREEZERS NOW!!!!!11 1omgogmlevelnty"

HonestChieffan · 08-06-2012, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bwana

One other thing to consider is that little sign on the gas pump when you're filling up your car. "This product may contain up to 10% ethanol by volume." Pertaining to this topic, think about that for a minute.

No argument on that. Be aware however it likely would make a small dent in corn price if they suspended the regs requiring ethanol. Reason is 1) world stocks of corn inventory will likely be at all time lows. Short supplies drive the price more than anything.

Secondly when a bushel of corn is used to make ethanol, the corn that is left is now fed to cattle as a feed ingredient. So its not a direct loss to feed industry, it just gets used in a different way. Keep in mind cattle production cost is impacted by corn price hut it is a low % of total cost when you understand they are on grass only for most of the time and even in feedlot they are fed massive amounts of hay in addition to the corn that is fed.

That said, there are few supporters anywhere to keep forcing the ethanol use even in the ag community. The gas sucks, farmers and ranchers have the same opinion of the sucko gas and we have all spent way more than we will ever know on engine repairs on everything from chain saws to water pumps to weedeaters and more. But the bottom line will be if we did away with ethanol, how many additional barrels of oil will we need and what are the economics of that? And if we did do away with the ethanol requirement it would likely not impact gas prices much at all.

Ace Gunner · 08-06-2012, 08:00 AM

Is corn the best source for ethanol?

Corn is better used for re-fueling people and animals than cars and trucks, according to Greg Stephanopoulos, W.H. Dow Professor of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology. “Corn’s production is energy-intensive and its conversion to biofuels is inefficient,” he said. “Cellulosic biomass feedstocks are better renewable resources for biofuels.”

In the United States, some states now require gasoline to be blended with up to 10 percent ethanol. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022. Most of this increase is expected to be ethanol-produced right now through the fermentation of either starch-based food products such as corn kernels or sugar-based food products such as sugar cane.

Second-generation biofuels are made from a wider variety of nonfood sources, such as cellulose, algae and recovered waste products. Cellulosic ethanol produced from native prairie perennial switchgrass, plus agricultural forestry and municipal residues such as wood chips and paper sludge, has the greatest potential to become a viable primary transportation sector energy carrier, experts agree.

Among switchgrass’s benefits are essentially zero net emissions of greenhouse gases and improved fertility from the carbon that switchgrass replaces in the soil as it grows. In future scenarios, farmers could keep soil fertile for by rotating switchgrass with food crops. – Deborah Halber

http://engineering.mit.edu/live/news...ce-for-ethanol

_________________________________________________________

I'll add corn is perhaps the most soil - intensive crop farmers can grow.

**Donger** · 08-06-2012, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saulbadguy

This has been a post on this board for the past 5 years, usually around the summertime.

"PACK YOUR FREEZERS NOW!!!!!11 1omgogmlevelnty"

Yeah, but one day they'll be right! You'll see!

**Donger** · 08-06-2012, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefsfootballfan

Is corn the best source for ethanol?

Corn is better used for re-fueling people and animals than cars and trucks, according to Greg Stephanopoulos, W.H. Dow Professor of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology. “Corn’s production is energy-intensive and its conversion to biofuels is inefficient,” he said. “Cellulosic biomass feedstocks are better renewable resources for biofuels.”

In the United States, some states now require gasoline to be blended with up to 10 percent ethanol. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022. Most of this increase is expected to be ethanol-produced right now through the fermentation of either starch-based food products such as corn kernels or sugar-based food products such as sugar cane.

Second-generation biofuels are made from a wider variety of nonfood sources, such as cellulose, algae and recovered waste products. Cellulosic ethanol produced from native prairie perennial switchgrass, plus agricultural forestry and municipal residues such as wood chips and paper sludge, has the greatest potential to become a viable primary transportation sector energy carrier, experts agree.

Among switchgrass’s benefits are essentially zero net emissions of greenhouse gases and improved fertility from the carbon that switchgrass replaces in the soil as it grows. In future scenarios, farmers could keep soil fertile for by rotating switchgrass with food crops. – Deborah Halber

http://engineering.mit.edu/live/news...ce-for-ethanol

_________________________________________________________

I'll add corn is perhaps the most soil - intensive crop farmers can grow.

Unfortunately, sugar cane doesn't tend to grow very well in the contiguous USA, as I understand it.

R8RFAN · 08-06-2012, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

Unfortunately, sugar cane doesn't tend to grow very well in the contiguous USA, as I understand it.

Hemp does

Ace Gunner · 08-06-2012, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

Unfortunately, sugar cane doesn't tend to grow very well in the contiguous USA, as I understand it.

Fortunately, in the real world, corn & sugar cane are not the only choice and are certainly not best choice for energy resources.

**Donger** · 08-06-2012, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfly Jimmy Snuka

Hemp does

And?

Ace Gunner · 08-06-2012, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfly Jimmy Snuka

Hemp does

boom goes the dynamite.

R8RFAN · 08-06-2012, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

And?

You can get like 4 harvests per year from it and take care alot of the energy needs of America....

They could even make it where you would have to smoke a lb of it to get a buzz if they wanted.

**Donger** · 08-06-2012, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfly Jimmy Snuka

You can get like 4 harvests per year from it and take care alot of the energy needs of America....

They could even make it where you would have to smoke a lb of it to get a buzz if they wanted.

If we planted the entire land area of the United States with hemp, it would only take the place of about 25% of the crude we consume every year.

Ace Gunner · 08-06-2012, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

If we planted the entire land area of the United States with hemp, it would only take the place of about 25% of the crude we consume every year.

link?

**Saulbadguy** · 08-06-2012, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

If we planted the entire land area of the United States with hemp, it would only take the place of about 25% of the crude we consume every year.

Oh boy. Here we go.

**Donger** · 08-06-2012, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefsfootballfan

link?

It was in one of the pot legalization threads recently.

08-05-2012, 04:45 PM
BIG_DADDY THE RED MENACE Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Texas Casino cash: $4958410	Inflation Watch Thread - Holy Guacamole I guess some of that liquidity is hitting the system now. Just went grocery shopping and stopped at the Fish Market. After that I went to Target to pick up a foam roller. $3 avocado, really? $43 a pound for King Crab up $5lb. in just the last week. $30.76 a pound for Halibut. Target had a foam roller for $26.95 plus tax for a piece of friggen foam. Hello Amazon. Went to SF the other day and got two martini’s. The damage, $30 plus tax and tip and some other fee they hitting customers up for these days to pay for their employees health care, all for a couple splashes of vodka. The black market is really going to start flourishing. I already source and buy all of my food directly in Southern Oregon and bring it back down with me. It’s all cash only, even the butcher. I would like to have those kinds of contacts here but it is a lot harder. Southern Oregon is a unique place. So what’s it like where you live and where are you seeing inflation and how are you dealing with it? Unfortunately I think this is just the very beginning especially when it comes to quality food.
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08-06-2012, 07:30 AM	#122
Saulbadguy When a nightmare becomes real Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $2326966	This has been a post on this board for the past 5 years, usually around the summertime. "PACK YOUR FREEZERS NOW!!!!!11 1omgogmlevelnty" __________________ http://www.goemaw.com
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08-06-2012, 08:00 AM	#124
Ace Gunner First Overall Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: kcmo Casino cash: $10007271	Is corn the best source for ethanol? Corn is better used for re-fueling people and animals than cars and trucks, according to Greg Stephanopoulos, W.H. Dow Professor of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology. “Corn’s production is energy-intensive and its conversion to biofuels is inefficient,” he said. “Cellulosic biomass feedstocks are better renewable resources for biofuels.” In the United States, some states now require gasoline to be blended with up to 10 percent ethanol. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022. Most of this increase is expected to be ethanol-produced right now through the fermentation of either starch-based food products such as corn kernels or sugar-based food products such as sugar cane. Second-generation biofuels are made from a wider variety of nonfood sources, such as cellulose, algae and recovered waste products. Cellulosic ethanol produced from native prairie perennial switchgrass, plus agricultural forestry and municipal residues such as wood chips and paper sludge, has the greatest potential to become a viable primary transportation sector energy carrier, experts agree. Among switchgrass’s benefits are essentially zero net emissions of greenhouse gases and improved fertility from the carbon that switchgrass replaces in the soil as it grows. In future scenarios, farmers could keep soil fertile for by rotating switchgrass with food crops. – Deborah Halber http://engineering.mit.edu/live/news...ce-for-ethanol _________________________________________________________ I'll add corn is perhaps the most soil - intensive crop farmers can grow. __________________ The Greatest
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