Nate Taylor: Chiefs expected to franchise OBJ again [not happening]

[The Franchise]

Brown is technically the Chiefs’ top free agent, though for the second consecutive year, he might never reach the open market. Similar to last year, the Chiefs are expected to place the franchise tag on Brown, which will prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Such a move will allow both parties more time to negotiate a lucrative contract extension. If the parties cannot agree to a deal by the middle of July, Brown would once again be restricted to a one-year salary of $18.4 million, according to Over The Cap.

https://theathletic.com/4161606/2023...3&redirected=1

The Athletic's Nate Taylor writes the Chiefs are "expected" to place the franchise tag on LT Orlando Brown again.

Brown played on the tag last year, briefly threatening to not report to camp before showing up on time. Since coming over for the Ravens in a trade, Brown has been stellar if not exceptional, and would probably profile as one of the five best free agents on the market if he got there. Taylor also writes that Brown turned down a six-year, $139 million deal with a $30.25 million signing bonus last offseason.

Not really new news...but he won't be hitting the open market at least.

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

In a surprise twist, the Chiefs will not be franchise tagging left tackle Orlando Brown, per source. He’s set to be a free agent March 13. The player has been notified.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) March 6, 2023

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by O.city

Mahomes had the best season in nfl history playing qb according to basically every advanced metric

I guess with the contract you pretty much have to have him do that every year

Well, see here's the thing-

Yeah, you do. You do need him to play at that level, because you're paying him to.

But further- you can look at this season as an outlier, and I understand the thinking. Or you can see it as an EVOLUTION. Is there anything there that's not repeatable? I would argue that while this was statistically his best year in a lot of categories, it was his most EFFICIENT play. It's repeatable. It wasn't a bunch of hero ball and chuck and duck. WASP is not really repeatable. You run that play ten times, it probably fails 6. This version of Reid/Mahomes was more diverse, more patient, more efficient. I don't see that changing no matter who they bring in. And there's no reason barring catastrophic injury to think it won't continue to evolve even further.

Which leads me to your pessimism with the draft-you're looking at '21 and '22 as outliers. But what about '18 and '20, you say? Well, new GM in '18. '20 Covid offseason. The last two drafts have been great. Are they outliers, or are they a TREND?

I say it's a TREND, because of the complete organizational stability from the front office, through the scouting ranks, to the coaching staff. There are no question marks. The GM and coaching staff are in lockstep. Most teams that are this successful lose all of their coaches and front office people, and we have not lost much at all in the last 4 years. Poles and EB. That's it really.

These guys are dialed in, and they're not going backwards. Some moves won't work out, and Veach will pivot when that happens, as he always seems to.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, see here's the thing-

Yeah, you do. You do need him to play at that level, because you're paying him to.

But further- you can look at this season as an outlier, and I understand the thinking. Or you can see it as an EVOLUTION. Is there anything there that's not repeatable? I would argue that while this was statistically his best year in a lot of categories, it was his most EFFICIENT play. It's repeatable. It wasn't a bunch of hero ball and chuck and duck. WASP is not really repeatable. You run that play ten times, it probably fails 6. This version of Reid/Mahomes was more diverse, more patient, more efficient. I don't see that changing no matter who they bring in. And there's no reason barring catastrophic injury to think it won't continue to evolve even further.

Which leads me to your pessimism with the draft-you're looking at '21 and '22 as outliers. But what about '18 and '20, you say? Well, new GM in '18. '20 Covid offseason. The last two drafts have been great. Are they outliers, or are they a TREND?

I say it's a TREND, because of the complete organizational stability from the front office, through the scouting ranks, to the coaching staff. There are no question marks. The GM and coaching staff are in lockstep. Most teams that are this successful lose all of their coaches and front office people, and we have not lost much at all in the last 5 years. Poles and EB. That's it really.

These guys are dialed in, and they're not going backwards. Some moves won't work out, and Veach will pivot when that happens, as he always seems to.

I don’t know why everyone thinks a stud WR is going to turn mahomes into some kind of tunnel vision qb. He grew as a qb and he’s not going back. And we aren’t going back to this offense where we sprint 100 mph. There are plenty of great WR1s who can fit the new way Andy and mahomes will run this offense.

The chiefs seem to be behind tons of rumors about WRs and several seem plenty legit. From obj to DHop to hoping that Dotson or Jameson Williams could be in range. To offering tyreek $25m. So I really don’t get the thinking that they are set on not having a true WR1. Every indication is that they’re very interested but they’re not going to be rash or overpay.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

That offense stalled in 2021 because Pat was trying to push the ball down the field. Watch the game film in the AFCCG and you can see it. He's holding the ball, running around, trying to wait for the play to develop.

In 2022, Pat's actually trying to get rid of the ball early/on time (depending on how you read the play), but no one's open from the snap.

Right this second, the only reliable man-beater we have in the WR room is Toney. And when he was on the field the offense didn't struggle as much.

But of course, he was hurt a couple times, and also new, so his snaps were limited. We're all thinking he'll be more prepared and be on the field more this upcoming season. That's going to be huge. But if he gets dinged up, the offense could struggle until he comes back.

i mean, I'm not coming up with this stuff on my own. you can watch Kurt Warner's takes from mid-season, Jt Sullivan's, Chris Simms . . . it's all right there on tape.

I get it, I really do but Mahomes isn’t cheap. Last year is most likely the new reality with this QB and HC. They have to do more with less on offense. This means keep Mahomes upright with a solid run game and solid WRs.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Look at the curious case of Skyy Moore.

KC knew he wasn't going to leapfrog four veteran WR for snaps, so they tried him at PR. That didn't go so well (at least until the AFCCG). They telegraphed that this would be a learning year and barring injury, he wasn't going to play a ton. Still, by the end, he made some big plays, right?

Now look at Christian Watson. Boy, did he stink it up the first half of the season. And then, all of the sudden mid-year he's scoring TD's all over the place. Kid figured it out. It takes reps to do that. Now Watson got ahead of Moore, because he played like shit for half the year, but he played and worked through it, figured out the speed of the NFL and where he was supposed to be in the offense and now GB's got themselves a good WR.

There's no reason at all to think Moore won't make a huge jump in year two. I think Andy expects that. he's said as much.

Maybe we ought to figure he knows what he's doing at this point.

You're on fire, my friend.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, see here's the thing-

Yeah, you do. You do need him to play at that level, because you're paying him to.

But further- you can look at this season as an outlier, and I understand the thinking. Or you can see it as an EVOLUTION. Is there anything there that's not repeatable? I would argue that while this was statistically his best year in a lot of categories, it was his most EFFICIENT play. It's repeatable. It wasn't a bunch of hero ball and chuck and duck. WASP is not really repeatable. You run that play ten times, it probably fails 6. This version of Reid/Mahomes was more diverse, more patient, more efficient. I don't see that changing no matter who they bring in. And there's no reason barring catastrophic injury to think it won't continue to evolve even further.

Which leads me to your pessimism with the draft-you're looking at '21 and '22 as outliers. But what about '18 and '20, you say? Well, new GM in '18. '20 Covid offseason. The last two drafts have been great. Are they outliers, or are they a TREND?

I say it's a TREND, because of the complete organizational stability from the front office, through the scouting ranks, to the coaching staff. There are no question marks. The GM and coaching staff are in lockstep. Most teams that are this successful lose all of their coaches and front office people, and we have not lost much at all in the last 4 years. Poles and EB. That's it really.

These guys are dialed in, and they're not going backwards. Some moves won't work out, and Veach will pivot when that happens, as he always seems to.

A trend of continuing to draft like that would be great. It would be unprecedented but massively helpful.

And in terms of the efficiency numbers, yes, Pat will continue to play well I’m sure. I dunno if he will keep that level just because….well again, it would be going against everything we’ve ever seen in the league.

I think they end up making some moves and spending money this off-season, which I’m sure some won’t like.

But you’ve also kinda set yourself up both ways here “they’re dialed in but some things won’t work”

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Mahomes had the best season in nfl history playing qb according to basically every advanced metric

I guess with the contract you pretty much have to have him do that every year

Would you rather be where the Chiefs are or literally any other team in the NFL?

If I told you "If Mahomes has a season on par with the best seasons of his career, we'll win a championship" isn't that a bet you'd be willing to take every single time?

Because it's a HELL of a lot better bet than the 6-8 question marks that every OTHER team is gonna have to get right year in, year out.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by tredadda

I get it, I really do but Mahomes isn’t cheap. Last year is most likely the new reality with this QB and HC. They have to do more with less on offense. This means keep Mahomes upright with a solid run game and solid WRs.

Solid WRs. I guess what's solid and how many do we have? Right now we kind of have two. Though MVS is limited, and I think Chris Simms is right; he's about as good as he's going to get.

Then Toney, who hasn't played an entire season yet. I think he'll play most/all of next season, but I have not much besides my gut and faith in the Chiefs training staff to go on there.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Dude, I get that KC was number one in several offensive stats. For the year.

Kind of like BAL/TEN/SF/DAL/PHI/every NUMBER 1 DEFENSE THE CHIEFS PLAYED IN THE LAST 5 YEARS was the best defense, because no one looked beyond the totals.

How'd that turn out for them?

Season total stats can hide a lot of information. Doesn't change the fact that sometimes the offense stalled because everyone was covered. Repeatedly. JuJu disappeared several games when the defense had the horses to just man JuJu up. It's all in the A-22s. Don't take my word for it. Believe your eyes, not me.

Tuscaloosa fan...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Would you rather be where the Chiefs are or literally any other team in the NFL?

If I told you "If Mahomes has a season on par with the best seasons of his career, we'll win a championship" isn't that a bet you'd be willing to take every single time?

Because it's a HELL of a lot better bet than the 6-8 question marks that every OTHER team is gonna have to get right year in, year out.

Oh for sure.

But man….that’s a big ask to do every year.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by O.city

A trend of continuing to draft like that would be great. It would be unprecedented but massively helpful.

And in terms of the efficiency numbers, yes, Pat will continue to play well I’m sure. I dunno if he will keep that level just because….well again, it would be going against everything we’ve ever seen in the league.

I think they end up making some moves and spending money this off-season, which I’m sure some won’t like.

But you’ve also kinda set yourself up both ways here “they’re dialed in but some things won’t work”

Man, here's the thing. Andy Reid's history tells me that there is zero chance we have a less than top five offense no matter what (other than catastrophic injury to Mahomes). I mean ZERO.

You revamped your secondary and now have 3 veteran, cost controlled, quality corners. 4 if you count the hybrid Sneed. You've got 3 good LB'ers too. You need a run stuffing DT or two (not expensive) and really ONE more plus pass rusher (expensive in cap or draft capital) and that should be a top ten defense. Maybe top 5.

You give me Mahomes, Reid, and a top ten defense and I'll take my chances, thank you very much.

We're going to be fine. They'll sign some guys, it just won't be top of the market guys, they'll be role players. And it's going to be fine. We'll be right there in the mix at the end with a shot to win it all again.

[kccrow]

Jawaan Taylor at LT is meh imo. Would rather just sign Dillard at that point.

I have nothing against KC going up and getting a guy. If that means paying more than we did to get Pat Mahomes, so be it. It costs more to move further. Don't rightly care, LT is easily the 2nd most important position on the team. Gotta protect the QB you're paying half a billion to.

The way my eyes see it, you're going to need #10 to get Broderick Jones, #13 to get Anton Harrison, and #16 to get Darnell Wright. Pick your poison or sit back and take the scraps. I see Skoronski as an OG at this point. Steen might be as well. Neither came in at 33" arms. Usually, a bad situation to not hit that mark for a tackle. Maybe that changes if the Bears sign OBj in free agency and don't trade down and take Paris Johnson. Those guys probably shift down the ladder but then I don't see Wright making it past Jacksonville at 24.

The next tier is probably Matt Bergeron, Blake Freeland, Jaelyn Duncan, and Wanya Morris. Not sure how I feel about Morris at LT. Duncan had a pretty bad 2022 season but looked great in 2021. I dunno, would probably champion Freeland at that point.

Personally, if the Eagles are selling #10 I'd pay the premium to get Jones. I think he's going to be really good. For whatever that's worth...

[RunKC]

Kinda thinking we won’t be picking in the first rd in 2024. And really if they find a quality LT they can move up for, it won’t matter much

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by O.city

Oh for sure.

But man….that’s a big ask to do every year.

Well, yeah, it ain't going to work every year.

Odds are against anything they do working THIS year, as almost nobody repeats.

But this is the best way to make sure you've got a shot EVERY year. You don't do Rams shit with a Mahomes in his prime. That's dumb. You're going to waste chunks of his career.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Tuscaloosa fan...

Lol, sorry, but I'm so far out of the loop with CFB I don't even now what that means . . .smiley widget here

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Jawaan Taylor at LT is meh imo. Would rather just sign Dillard at that point.

I have nothing against KC going up and getting a guy. If that means paying more than we did to get Pat Mahomes, so be it. It costs more to move further. Don't rightly care, LT is easily the 2nd most important position on the team. Gotta protect the QB you're paying half a billion to.

The way my eyes see it, you're going to need #10 to get Broderick Jones, #13 to get Anton Harrison, and #16 to get Darnell Wright. Pick your poison or sit back and take the scraps. I see Skoronski as an OG at this point. Steen might be as well. Neither came in at 33" arms. Usually, a bad situation to not hit that mark for a tackle. Maybe that changes if the Bears sign OBj in free agency and don't trade down and take Paris Johnson. Those guys probably shift down the ladder but then I don't see Wright making it past Jacksonville at 24.

The next tier is probably Matt Bergeron, Blake Freeland, Jaelyn Duncan, and Wanya Morris. Not sure how I feel about Morris at LT. Duncan had a pretty bad 2022 season but looked great in 2021. I dunno, would probably champion Freeland at that point.

Personally, if the Eagles are selling #10 I'd pay the premium to get Jones. I think he's going to be really good. For whatever that's worth...

I've not seen Harrison anywhere near that high.