***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Titty Meat]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...untries-2020-3

Interesting stats here. I would like to see which countries quickly enacted a stay in place and how much of a difference that has made.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Almost a million people in NY rode the subway today.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...iders.amp.html

I understand the difficulties it presents shutting down the subway system, but if they don’t (or at minimum limiting it to only health care and grocery workers) NY is goi g to get exponentially worse.

Tough situation and I don't know what the answer is honestly. In my opinion no landlord in NYC should have the ability to evict someone right now. Does anyone know if they can?

The people riding the subway obviously would rather take the risk of getting the CoronVirus then be homeless. I feel horrible for them and its got to be a tough situation.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Tough situation and I don't know what the answer is honestly. In my opinion no landlord in NYC should have the ability to evict someone right now. Does anyone know if they can?

The people riding the subway obviously would rather take the risk of getting the CoronVirus then be homeless. I feel horrible for them and its got to be a tough situation.

I've ridden the subways there. If we're talking about Manhattan, it's not that huge. You could cut the number of stops by 90 percent and just convert them to express trains, and possibly cut 75 percent of riders. It's not that far. Manhattan is only about 6 or 7 miles long if you're going from one end to the other, which means that most people probably aren't going that far. People can walk three miles.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by TLO

Also - this website is very interesting, but the data/projections has changed wildly from yesterday to today for many states.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Thanks for posting this TLO! It really eased my mind!

Link below explains how they just updated the model incorporating recent US data which would explain the changes. I have a severely asthmatic daughter and have been worried about ventilator and ICU capacity (too many hyperbolic articles). These data (U of Washington) are very encouraging for my state. Unfortunately not so for our friends in NY and NJ. It's going to be a difficult few weeks. For the nation, this points to early June for some normalization, earlier in some places. The total deaths are consistent with what Fauci recently quoted, which seemed low.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[Pushead2]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Tough situation and I don't know what the answer is honestly. In my opinion no landlord in NYC should have the ability to evict someone right now. Does anyone know if they can?

The people riding the subway obviously would rather take the risk of getting the CoronVirus then be homeless. I feel horrible for them and its got to be a tough situation.

As of now, in a rent controlled building, there's no eviction for 90 days.

https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/26/2119...orium-covid-19

[2112]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I've ridden the subways there. If we're talking about Manhattan, it's not that huge. You could cut the number of stops by 90 percent and just convert them to express trains, and possibly cut 75 percent of riders. It's not that far. Manhattan is only about 6 or 7 miles long if you're going from one end to the other, which means that most people probably aren't going that far. People can walk three miles.

A majority of the people working in Manhattan usually live in the outer boroughs because it’s so expensive to live in Manhattan. The D train for example goes from Coney Island (Brooklyn) , through Manhattan and all the way past Yankee stadium in the Bronx.

I agree with the express idea, but the mayor always appears to be 3 weeks behind in his thinking.

[Pushead2]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I've ridden the subways there. If we're talking about Manhattan, it's not that huge. You could cut the number of stops by 90 percent and just convert them to express trains, and possibly cut 75 percent of riders. It's not that far. Manhattan is only about 6 or 7 miles long if you're going from one end to the other, which means that most people probably aren't going that far. People can walk three miles.

I mentioned this to the misses that all trains in the city should go the express route, but that won't work for Queens, BK & BX as they're too spread out.

I know of a few trains that have stopped service on the weekdays and overall subway & bus service have been cut 25%. LIRR I think was reduced 35%-40%.

It's tough right now. I'm fortunate enough to be working from home, but I also live in northeast Queens, so I commute everywhere by car.

We're not taking any chances and making sure we're extra careful.

[Mecca]

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I’m sure there are a lot of deaths at the first of this outbreak that occurred because of the virus and the person was never tested for the coronavirus.

Last year I think there were 50k deaths from pneumonia. I would wager that figure will be many multiples of that in 2020 due to untested individuals passing away.

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by cdcox

At the current growth rate (16%) the number of cases would still double every five days. Once that curve reaches near zero, if we have adequate testing to quickly identify new cases, and if we can do comprehensive contact tracking, and if we had a social safety net to isolate the infected and quarantine the exposed, we could open most things up. This is where South Korea is. We could have gatherings up to 100 or so, but still no sports, concerts or other mass gatherings. Deviating from any of this, we will be right back where we are now.

The above situation would change with some combination of the following:
a) vaccine
b) evidence of significant herd immunity with limited mutations
c) a therapeutic that greatly reduced viral load

On the Johns Hopkins site, the Italy graph is finally starting to flatten a bit, which is encouraging. The US slope is still freaking scary though and I think there will be some huge blowups in states that haven't yet instituted stay at home orders (mainly Florida).

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Kansas has handled this about as poorly as any state around here. Iowa had locked down restaurants AT LEAST a week prior to KS.

Riiiiiight

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?

People who think being at home is the worst punishment ever.

[RedRaider56]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

My buddy was running in nkc and saw parents letting kids play on the equipment. It wasn't sealed off. I really don't understand why people aren't getting how serious this is. Locally I've seen equipment sealed off with police tape.

Drove through a large subdivision, not far from my house the other day, and there must have been 20 kids playing basketball together. I'm thinking WTF? Do parents not have any idea of what shelter in place means or do they think their kids are immune to catching it

[wazu]

Originally Posted by RedRaider56

Drove through a large subdivision, not far from my house the other day, and there must have been 20 kids playing basketball together. I'm thinking WTF? Do parents not have any idea of what shelter in place means or do they think their kids are immune to catching it

Eh, good for them.

[Mr. Plow]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Not true. Kansas was one of most pro-active states regarding Covid-19. It is part of the reason why we've (knock on wood) have been able to flatten the curve as much as we have. Our governor got a lot of flack for the steps she took. By and large, the state (so far) has been spared the worst of it. Most of the cases in KS (roughly 2/3) are in JoCo/Wyandotte/Leavenworth which borders MO (which totally botched their response). The past three days KS has held steady on the number of new cases. Kansas has done, by and large, a pretty outstanding job so far.

If I'm remembering correctly, KS was the first or one of the first states to shut down schools.