***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by stumppy

No, I don't know of anyone who thinks that. But a vaccine will go a long ways towards getting us back to the way things were before CV.

I’ve seen tons of people on social media and even some people here that say we can get back to normal just as soon as there’s a vaccine. Once we have a vaccine (which isn’t guaranteed by the way) it will take months or even years to distribute and immunize even a majority let alone 90th percentile. And on top of that, there’s no guarantee that the vaccine will be 100% effective. If it’s like influenza, it won’t even be 50% effective.

A vaccine is an additional measure to control the virus. It won’t ever be “gone”. If people think we are just going wear masks and all this stuff forever we’ll that’s not gonna happen.

[O.city]

It won’t be like the flu vaccine. This isn’t mutating like influenza this far so it should be pretty solid at getting an immune response
Biggest issue is gonna be getting it mass produced and out

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

It won’t be like the flu vaccine. This isn’t mutating like influenza this far so it should be pretty solid at getting an immune response
Biggest issue is gonna be getting it mass produced and out

Yet. Emphasis on yet.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I’ve seen tons of people on social media and even some people here that say we can get back to normal just as soon as there’s a vaccine. Once we have a vaccine (which isn’t guaranteed by the way) it will take months or even years to distribute and immunize even a majority let alone 90th percentile. And on top of that, there’s no guarantee that the vaccine will be 100% effective. If it’s like influenza, it won’t even be 50% effective.

A vaccine is an additional measure to control the virus. It won’t ever be “gone”. If people think we are just going wear masks and all this stuff forever we’ll that’s not gonna happen.

Like I said, a vaccine will go a long ways to getting us back to where we were before CV.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Yet. Emphasis on yet.

Corona viruses don’t have the rate of mutations that influenza viruses do

They’re targeting specifically the spike protein as the antigen which is the most stable sequence iirc

I don’t think it will be an issue.

The bigger issue again will be production at first, then whether it’s needed again. Antigenic drift is possible though

[O.city]

Theoretically, you won’t need to vaccinate the majority at that point anyway. If you’ve already had it an recovered you’d go to the back of the line

Or if you’re dead you probably don’t need a vaccination

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Like I said, a vaccine will go a long ways to getting us back to where we were before CV.

Except it won’t. The mass hysteria around this thing isn’t going to subside until reported cases are near zero. People are fist fighting over not maintaining six feet and people have been shot for not wearing a mask

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by O.city

Theoretically, you won’t need to vaccinate the majority at that point anyway. If you’ve already had it an recovered you’d go to the back of the line

Or if you’re dead you probably don’t need a vaccination

**** you, I’m first in line.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Corona viruses don’t have the rate of mutations that influenza viruses do

They’re targeting specifically the spike protein as the antigen which is the most stable sequence iirc

I don’t think it will be an issue.

The bigger issue again will be production at first, then whether it’s needed again. Antigenic drift is possible though

But you’re also not considering the measles factor. It was like 12 years after they introduced the measles vaccine that they realized one shot wasn’t enough.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I’ve seen tons of people on social media and even some people here that say we can get back to normal just as soon as there’s a vaccine. Once we have a vaccine (which isn’t guaranteed by the way) it will take months or even years to distribute and immunize even a majority let alone 90th percentile. And on top of that, there’s no guarantee that the vaccine will be 100% effective. If it’s like influenza, it won’t even be 50% effective.

A vaccine is an additional measure to control the virus. It won’t ever be “gone”. If people think we are just going wear masks and all this stuff forever we’ll that’s not gonna happen.

Hard to predict the future vaccines have done a pretty decent job over the years and this being our first go at a coronavirus one who knows what the results will be SARS and MERS disappeared somehow maybe a vaccine could be what this one needs .

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

But you’re also not considering the measles factor. It was like 12 years after they introduced the measles vaccine that they realized one shot wasn’t enough.

Well that was what, 75 years ago? I’d think we’ve gotten a bit smarter.

We may end up needing a booster here I know there was some talk about that but last I saw the couple big vaccines in phase IIi were producing quite strong enough of a response it wasn’t likely to be needed

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Hard to predict the future vaccines have done a pretty decent job over the years and this being our first go at a coronavirus one who knows what the results will be SARS and MERS disappeared somehow maybe a vaccine could be what this one needs .

As long as you realize that what you said is a lot of hope at this point. There’s absolutely no guarantee a vaccine will solve this. It is guaranteed that we can’t go on like this forever. Suicide rates are up. All but the biggest of corporations are being financially ruined. People are injuring each other over not having a piece of paper over their mouth.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well that was what, 75 years ago? I’d think we’ve gotten a bit smarter.

We may end up needing a booster here I know there was some talk about that but last I saw the couple big vaccines in phase IIi were producing quite strong enough of a response it wasn’t likely to be needed

Early 70’s I think.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

As long as you realize that what you said is a lot of hope at this point. There’s absolutely no guarantee a vaccine will solve this. It is guaranteed that we can’t go on like this forever. Suicide rates are up. All but the biggest of corporations are being financially ruined. People are injuring each other over not having a piece of paper over their mouth.

It's just a different philosophy at this point. I think that there's a good chance that a vaccine will make things 80% better, so I'm comfortable with waiting a few more months to see how the research plays out. If you literally think it's not gonna help anything, then I can see why you'd want to just say **** it and get it overwith.

[O.city]

Vaccination won’t necessarily be the silver bullet

Paired with better therapeutics and the fact that a large amount of people have had it and will have immunity will get us past it

We definitely can’t go on like this forever. It’s why the hammer and the dance wasn’t ever gonna be feasible. Political capitol and such isn’t endless