The team is not set up great for 2021.

staylor26 · 05-12-2020, 02:32 PM

Young talent that could develop into quality starters:

CEH
Hardman
Gay
Thornhill
Saunders
Niang
Sneed
Rankin

And to a lesser extent:

Fenton
Keyes
Speaks
Danna

Plus another 1,2,3,4,4,5,5,6 next year?

With this core likely still together:

Mahomes
Hill
Kelce
Fisher
Schwartz
Clark
Jones
Mathieu
Ward
Nnadi

It’s not nearly as bad as you are making it seem because it’s still very early in a lot of those guys development or we haven’t seen them at all. At this point, you have to have faith in your coaching staff on both sides of the ball to develop all of that young talent and Veach to continue to fine guys like Breeland, Pennel, Wis, Wilson etc.

DJ's left nut · 05-12-2020, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

Young talent that could develop into quality starters:

CEH
Hardman
Gay
Thornhill
Saunders
Niang
Sneed
Rankin

And to a lesser extent:

Fenton
Keyes
Speaks
Danna

Plus another 1,2,3,4,4,5,5,6 next year?

With this core likely still together:

Mahomes
Hill
Kelce
Fisher
Schwartz
Clark
Jones
Mathieu
Ward
Nnadi

It’s not nearly as bad as you are making it seem because it’s still very early in a lot of those guys development or we haven’t seen them at all. At this point, you have to have faith in your coaching staff on both sides of the ball to develop all of that young talent and Veach to continue to fine guys like Breeland, Pennel, Wis, Wilson etc.

There is something to be said for 2020 being a 'bridge' year and we have to remember that this is something we'll see every 3-4 seasons.

We just have to constantly remind ourselves that Pat Mahomes is likely to helm 3 or 4 different 'baseline' iterations of teams. The window on this team - we'll call it Mahomes 1.0 - is probably 2-3 more seasons. The team with Kelce, Hill, Fisher, Schwartz and HB is his first 'window'.

3-4 seasons from now would you be surprised at all if Hill's the only guy left from that group? It's not a given, but it's a possibility. Clark's likely nearing the end of his dominant phase and Jones could be as well.

As fans we're just not accustomed to a 10 year throughput from a dominant offensive player. As such, we focus on how this iteration stays together. But the bottom line is that Manning, Brady, Favre, Rodgers, Marino - all those 'greats' who dominated for a decade did so with vastly different teams at various points throughout their career. So, too, will Mahomes.

That's why I argue so strenuously against drafting for need. EVERYTHING is a need by the end of a rookie contract. Niang appears to be a luxury item right now but if he proves to be a starting caliber tackle, by that 4th year of his deal he'll be starting at tackle somewhere on this roster. Safety and TE are the guys who we struggle to see as need positions in the next 4 years but history tells us that HB and Kelce will be nearing their endpoints as premier options in the next 2-3 seasons as well. Maybe they're outliers like TG and Ed Reed...but you can't build a team based on that.

In other words, you read the OP, shrug your shoulders and go "Yeah - and...?"

That's just the way of it in the NFL. Adapt or die.

kccrow · 05-12-2020, 07:44 PM

My long-winded thoughts...

Here's a look at the roster and where guys will be at in the 2021 offseason in terms of years remaining (1 being last year of deal for 2021 season)...

QB1 Patrick Mahomes (presumable 4+)
QB2 Chad Henne (1)
QB3 Jordan Ta'amu (1, ERFA deal would make it 2) - solid shot a 3rd is carried with roster expansion

QB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd QBs are available every year and in the draft in the mid-rounds.

RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4)
RB2 ?
RB3 ?
RB4 Darwin Thompson (2) - If he makes the team

RB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd RBs are always cheap and available, even UDFAs. RB Darrell Williams is possible to bring back on RFA deal, depends on what he is in 2020.

FB is not much of a concern. I think it's a foregone conclusion KC moves on from Sherman by then, but a low cost option will be around.

WR1 Tyreek Hill (2)
WR2 ?
WRS Mecole Hardman (2)
WR4 Byron Pringle (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Pringle with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game.
WR5 ?
WR6 ?

WR is an obvious problem, especially if an UDFA like Lipscomb doesn't work out and give you a couple extra cheap years.

TE1 Travis Kelce (1)
TE2 ?
TE3 ?

TE is something I think KC will need to address next draft. They need a longer-term option behind Kelce. Even if, and I'm sure they do, extend Kelce a few more seasons, he may start becoming more injury plagued much like Gronk became. They need something there. It's possible for KC to bring back TE Deon Yelder on a RFA deal if he pans out in 2020 but I won't hold my breath.

LT Eric Fisher (1)
LG Martinas Rankin (1) - At age 25, if he's working out, he'll get extended.
OC Nick Allegretti/OG (2)
RG Lucas Niang/OT (3)
RT Mitchell Schwartz (1) - Probably drafted Niang as his successor
OG Andrew Wylie (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Wylie with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game.
OT Jackson Barton (ERFA deal) - They kept him around so we'll see what transpires, but he's cheap and KC could need bodies.

OT will certainly be something to think about, although I think Fisher gets extended a couple years and Niang takes over at RT for Schwartz.

IOL I'm kind of penciling guys in here and will probably continue to be mostly the plug and play it's been with low-key dumpster diving. However, now that LDT has a void year, I'd guess at least one mid-round pick goes here.

DE1 Frank Clark (3)
DE2 Alex Okafor (1)
DE3 Breeland Speaks (1, RFA candidate to make it 2) - Is he a DE or DT or potential fail?
DE4 Mike Danna (3) - If he can make the team
DE5 Demone Harris (ERFA deal) - Veach tends to give guys a shot on ERFA deals if they've been contributors

DE will be a need if Danna doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will). Is Tanoh worth bringing back? Okafor has never been much more than a marginal base end and Speaks is nothing at this point.

DT1 Chris Jones (assumption of long-term deal)
DT2 Derrick Nnadi (1)
DT3 Khalen Saunders (2)
DT4 ?

DT is a position, depending on Jones, that could use more depth or a starter. We'll see. Also, will Veach extend Nnadi? He's a hell of a plug in there so I'd lean towards yes but if not it creates a huge void for 2022.

SLB ?
MLB Anthony Hitchens (2) - Should be replaced but....
WLB Willie Gay (3)
LB4 Dorian O'Daniel (1) - Not good, could get cut either way
LB5 ?

SLB will definitely be something KC needs to address in the next draft if they aren't intent on extending Wilson, but I'd be all in on brining back Wilson for a couple more years. There is not depth and Hitchens should be replaced. Need more here. They could bring back Niemann on a RFA deal but that's too much for him.

CB1 Charvarius Ward (RFA deal, certainly, but will he get extension off of it)
CB2 L'Jarius Sneed (3) - lofty expectations
CBS Rashad Fenton (2)
CB4 Thakarius Keyes (3) - If he can make the team
CB5 ?

CB has been a constant need through Veach's tenure that he's continued to apply band-aids to. I expect nothing more at this point. I'm expecting they retain Ward long-term, but you never know. It would certainly take the sting out of it. What will come of Sneed, Keyes, Hill, and Davis is yet to be determined but it's a nice class to mull over.

SS Tyrann Mathieu (1)
FS Juan Thornhill (2)
S3 Armani Watts (1)
S4 ?
S5 ?

Finding Mathieu's successor in the next draft would help, and they certainly need depth.

K Harrison Butker (4)
P Tommy Townsend (2) - Assuming he wins the job
LS James Winchester (1) - At age 32, probably will sign another deal

Right now, I'd consider priorities along the lines of:

1. LB
2. IOL
3. WR
4. DE
5. CB
6. TE
7. S
8. DT
9. RB
10. OT

The good is that KC should come away with 4th and 5th round comps next year and may get a pick for Mark Fields trade to Minnesota (unsure of conditions). Anyhow, KC is primed to likely have at least 8 draft picks and those extra mid rounders could secure some depth along the OL and at S.

In terms of cap, KC is penciled in with a guess of $34 million. Take $16 at least for Jones and I don't really think Patrick will cost the team "that much" more once he gets the long-term deal, so I'll guess $5 more. That leaves you at $13. Not much to get things done. You probably go after the bargain positions in FA, including a reserve S, reserve TE, reserve RB, FB, rotational DT and maybe a cheap CB like Veach goes after.

That probably puts your draft positions at IOL x 2, LB, DE, WR x 2, S, and a value pick defensively.

I dunno, that's my thoughts. I don't really think it's all that bad but I'm not about to expect much of a splash in FA either.

05-12-2020, 02:32 PM	#1
staylor26 In Search of a Life Join Date: Oct 2007 Casino cash: $1569040	Young talent that could develop into quality starters: CEH Hardman Gay Thornhill Saunders Niang Sneed Rankin And to a lesser extent: Fenton Keyes Speaks Danna Plus another 1,2,3,4,4,5,5,6 next year? With this core likely still together: Mahomes Hill Kelce Fisher Schwartz Clark Jones Mathieu Ward Nnadi It’s not nearly as bad as you are making it seem because it’s still very early in a lot of those guys development or we haven’t seen them at all. At this point, you have to have faith in your coaching staff on both sides of the ball to develop all of that young talent and Veach to continue to fine guys like Breeland, Pennel, Wis, Wilson etc.
Posts: 49,032	1 0

05-12-2020, 07:44 PM	#3
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3057078	My long-winded thoughts... Here's a look at the roster and where guys will be at in the 2021 offseason in terms of years remaining (1 being last year of deal for 2021 season)... QB1 Patrick Mahomes (presumable 4+) QB2 Chad Henne (1) QB3 Jordan Ta'amu (1, ERFA deal would make it 2) - solid shot a 3rd is carried with roster expansion QB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd QBs are available every year and in the draft in the mid-rounds. RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4) RB2 ? RB3 ? RB4 Darwin Thompson (2) - If he makes the team RB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd RBs are always cheap and available, even UDFAs. RB Darrell Williams is possible to bring back on RFA deal, depends on what he is in 2020. FB is not much of a concern. I think it's a foregone conclusion KC moves on from Sherman by then, but a low cost option will be around. WR1 Tyreek Hill (2) WR2 ? WRS Mecole Hardman (2) WR4 Byron Pringle (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Pringle with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game. WR5 ? WR6 ? WR is an obvious problem, especially if an UDFA like Lipscomb doesn't work out and give you a couple extra cheap years. TE1 Travis Kelce (1) TE2 ? TE3 ? TE is something I think KC will need to address next draft. They need a longer-term option behind Kelce. Even if, and I'm sure they do, extend Kelce a few more seasons, he may start becoming more injury plagued much like Gronk became. They need something there. It's possible for KC to bring back TE Deon Yelder on a RFA deal if he pans out in 2020 but I won't hold my breath. LT Eric Fisher (1) LG Martinas Rankin (1) - At age 25, if he's working out, he'll get extended. OC Nick Allegretti/OG (2) RG Lucas Niang/OT (3) RT Mitchell Schwartz (1) - Probably drafted Niang as his successor OG Andrew Wylie (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Wylie with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game. OT Jackson Barton (ERFA deal) - They kept him around so we'll see what transpires, but he's cheap and KC could need bodies. OT will certainly be something to think about, although I think Fisher gets extended a couple years and Niang takes over at RT for Schwartz. IOL I'm kind of penciling guys in here and will probably continue to be mostly the plug and play it's been with low-key dumpster diving. However, now that LDT has a void year, I'd guess at least one mid-round pick goes here. DE1 Frank Clark (3) DE2 Alex Okafor (1) DE3 Breeland Speaks (1, RFA candidate to make it 2) - Is he a DE or DT or potential fail? DE4 Mike Danna (3) - If he can make the team DE5 Demone Harris (ERFA deal) - Veach tends to give guys a shot on ERFA deals if they've been contributors DE will be a need if Danna doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will). Is Tanoh worth bringing back? Okafor has never been much more than a marginal base end and Speaks is nothing at this point. DT1 Chris Jones (assumption of long-term deal) DT2 Derrick Nnadi (1) DT3 Khalen Saunders (2) DT4 ? DT is a position, depending on Jones, that could use more depth or a starter. We'll see. Also, will Veach extend Nnadi? He's a hell of a plug in there so I'd lean towards yes but if not it creates a huge void for 2022. SLB ? MLB Anthony Hitchens (2) - Should be replaced but.... WLB Willie Gay (3) LB4 Dorian O'Daniel (1) - Not good, could get cut either way LB5 ? SLB will definitely be something KC needs to address in the next draft if they aren't intent on extending Wilson, but I'd be all in on brining back Wilson for a couple more years. There is not depth and Hitchens should be replaced. Need more here. They could bring back Niemann on a RFA deal but that's too much for him. CB1 Charvarius Ward (RFA deal, certainly, but will he get extension off of it) CB2 L'Jarius Sneed (3) - lofty expectations CBS Rashad Fenton (2) CB4 Thakarius Keyes (3) - If he can make the team CB5 ? CB has been a constant need through Veach's tenure that he's continued to apply band-aids to. I expect nothing more at this point. I'm expecting they retain Ward long-term, but you never know. It would certainly take the sting out of it. What will come of Sneed, Keyes, Hill, and Davis is yet to be determined but it's a nice class to mull over. SS Tyrann Mathieu (1) FS Juan Thornhill (2) S3 Armani Watts (1) S4 ? S5 ? Finding Mathieu's successor in the next draft would help, and they certainly need depth. K Harrison Butker (4) P Tommy Townsend (2) - Assuming he wins the job LS James Winchester (1) - At age 32, probably will sign another deal Right now, I'd consider priorities along the lines of: 1. LB 2. IOL 3. WR 4. DE 5. CB 6. TE 7. S 8. DT 9. RB 10. OT The good is that KC should come away with 4th and 5th round comps next year and may get a pick for Mark Fields trade to Minnesota (unsure of conditions). Anyhow, KC is primed to likely have at least 8 draft picks and those extra mid rounders could secure some depth along the OL and at S. In terms of cap, KC is penciled in with a guess of $34 million. Take $16 at least for Jones and I don't really think Patrick will cost the team "that much" more once he gets the long-term deal, so I'll guess $5 more. That leaves you at $13. Not much to get things done. You probably go after the bargain positions in FA, including a reserve S, reserve TE, reserve RB, FB, rotational DT and maybe a cheap CB like Veach goes after. That probably puts your draft positions at IOL x 2, LB, DE, WR x 2, S, and a value pick defensively. I dunno, that's my thoughts. I don't really think it's all that bad but I'm not about to expect much of a splash in FA either.
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