***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

My point was that accepting that this is a difficult problem that's going to take time, . . . an unknown amount of time that doesn't even have solid metrics for progress let alone resolution, is a very different imposition than 'stay put for x, and we promise y' which was the basis for criticizing our national sense of shared sacrifice.

Think of that experiment with kids and Oreos, or was it m&ms? . . . think it was marshmallows... Where you made a bargain where they could eat one now, or two in 5 minutes. Even then there was a psychological differentiation regarding deferred gratification.

Now make it a starving kid, and say they can have one marshmallow now, . . . or maybe someday later in the week, someone might drop by with two, . . we hope. . . The differentiation would be off the charts.

I get what you are saying but without delving into the politics that is why it is important to have a unified plan and message.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I get what you are saying but without delving into the politics that is why it is important to have a unified plan and message.

I don't think that particular problem is so much political.
A big part of a lack of a unified plan is because the plan isn't clear yet, because the obstacles still aren't clearly defined, and a unified plan ahead of a clear understanding of the obstacles is an invitation to an eventual loss of authority when the unforeseen destroys initial plans.
The second big part of the lack of a unified plan is social media in an open society means everyone gets a veto, and a chance to offer their interpretation of and assessment of said hypothesized plan.

Unless you are envisioning a political environment where the future is defined by declaration and free expression is eliminated, in addition to current restrictions, it's not a political matter. It's a matter of the arrow of time and human nature.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

I don't think that particular problem is so much political.
A big part of a lack of a unified plan is because the plan isn't clear yet, because the obstacles still aren't clearly defined, and a unified plan ahead of a clear understanding of the obstacles is an invitation to an eventual loss of authority when the unforeseen destroys initial plans.
The second big part of the lack of a unified plan is social media in an open society means everyone gets a veto, and a chance to offer their interpretation of and assessment of said hypothesized plan.

Unless you are envisioning a political environment where the future is defined by declaration and free expression is eliminated, in addition to current restrictions, it's not a political matter. It's a matter of the arrow of time and human nature.

I believe to have this discussion involves politics and that is all I can say because I don't want to get bounced from this thread.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I believe to have this discussion involves politics and that is all I can say because I don't want to get bounced from this thread.

I guess we'll just stick with the apparently approved passive-aggressive 'We all know why everyone but us is an asshole, but I don't want to get political' line that pops up every 50 posts or so. [not accusing you specifically]

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

What we’re the counts yesterday? I can’t find the daily data for mo

They haven't updated the page where I look at previous days numbers. I'll post it when they update it. I did find this.

Buchanan County
As of Sun, May 3, 2020, 7:06 PM EDT
CONFIRMED CASES
229
+301.7%Since last week

Thanks Triumph!

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

I guess we'll just stick with the apparently approved passive-aggressive 'We all know why everyone but us is an asshole, but I don't want to get political' line that pops up every 50 posts or so. [not accusing you specifically]

I am not trying to be passive aggressive and would glad to tell you what I think elsewhere but not here because I would get bounced

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I think people are getting bored and want out of the house for sure. The states that have beaches, parks etc open are getting huge crowds and no social distancing.

And yes it is frustrating not to have any answers but that is because this is a highly contagious and deadly novel virus that we are slowly trying to figure it out.

One advantage to states doing their own thing is it should provide some good data points that are specific to the US. (As opposed to countries we aren't going to replicate.) About what does or doesn't work.

I'm glad to be in a state that is not going down the road of quickly opening things up. But I do realize the lockdown/social distancing doesn't effect everyone equally. Even with the ability to work from home, I would have been far more annoyed to be stuck at home ten or fifteen years ago when I had a more active lifestyle.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am not trying to be passive aggressive and would glad to tell you what I think elsewhere but not here because I would get bounced

Is this thing on?

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

[not accusing you specifically]

[Kidd Lex]

I don’t know what to make of posts like this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/...598505472?s=21

[TLO]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

I don’t know what to make of posts like this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/...598505472?s=21

Twitter is best avoided, IMO.

Reading into that person a bit more they seem to be pushing a political agenda.

[TLO]

We passed 68k deaths today. I'd say the IHME model took a swing, and missed by about a mile. Current projections (as of April 29th) have us as 72k deaths by August.

Good try model, better luck next time.

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/benpershing/stat...027560961?s=21

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

I don’t know what to make of posts like this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/...598505472?s=21

I am not on Twitter or Facebook or any other social media at first I was worried I might be missing out , but now I see it as a blessing.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

I don’t know what to make of posts like this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/...598505472?s=21

If you read what the doctors who have dealt with this have said... that's not really that surprising.This thing behaves in all kinds of weird ways.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by tk13

If you read what the doctors who have dealt with this have said... that's not really that surprising.This thing behaves in all kinds of weird ways.

One thing that has not been fully appreciated is the significant morbidity that will accompany those that get this bug and survive.