***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think we know that's not nearly the case based off the data we have or else hospitalizations would be much higher and we wouldn't have 20X the number of known infections walking around asymptomatic.

I think people are taking some pretty extreme liberties with what underlying conditions increase mortality with covid, it seems they are probably fairly specific and coupled with age. There is likely a combination of conditions that make a really bad scenario.

Asthma, obesity, copd, renal disease, cancer , hypertension , liver disease, lung disease, diabetes, immunodeficiency. You don’t think that is a large portion of the population?

It does not have to kill you to cause harm.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

When's the last time 26,000 Americans died in a month outside of NYC/NJ?Probably 2017-2018 flu season.

When's the last time more people under the age of 65 and healthy died of a contagion in a month during flu season? Most likely 2009, 2015-16, and 2017-2018

Here's a good resource...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

Horrible comparison...

Was social distancing being put into place when these deaths happened during the flu season?

[Monticore]

If people took influenza more seriously. There would be less deaths, we have a vaccine and over 50% don’t get it .

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Monticore

If people took influenza more seriously. There would be less deaths

But it's just the flu bro.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

Yes you linked the 2017-18 flu and h1n1, but they did not have deaths broken down by AGE. That's probably because the figures were only estimates for those illnesses.

You are making a claim about comparing the risk of mortality for a certain age bracket. THAT is what is not backed up.

It's not that hard...

Current #s

1,022,000 confirmed cases
57,000 deaths
90% with underlying conditions per my CDC link
5700 healthy deaths
Now lets assume they are all under 65...
5700/1,022,000=.0055 or .5%
This would be the actual current CFR. We know from several antibody test, including NYC, that the denominator is at least 9 times higher than confirmed cases at 2.7 million...

5700/9,000,000=.0006 or .006%

https://www.livescience.com/covid-an...york-test.html

[TLO]

New York's death toll is under 250 today if you trust worldomoters

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

It's not that hard...

Current #s

1,022,000 confirmed cases
57,000 deaths
90% with underlying conditions per my CDC link
5700 healthy deaths
Now lets assume they are all under 65...
5700/1,022,000=.0055 or .5%
This would be the actual current CFR. We know from several antibody test, including NYC, that the denominator is at least 9 times higher than confirmed cases at 2.7 million...

5700/9,000,000=.0006 or .006%

https://www.livescience.com/covid-an...york-test.html

Did you leave out the age brackets deliberately, or accidentally?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by TLO

New York's death toll is under 250 today if you trust worldomoters

And only 2300 new cases.


But NJ jumped way up in deaths. Almost 400

[Donger]

No need for this to be political, but I thought people should see it:

President Trump is expected to sign a five-page executive order under the Defense Production Act today that compels meat processing plants to remain open, CNN has learned.

Trump is expected to sign the order after some companies, like Tyson, were considering only keeping 20% of their facilities open. The vast majority of processing plans could have shut down, which would have reduced processing capacity in the country by as much as 80%, an official familiar says.

By signing the order, Trump will declare these plants as a part of critical infrastructure in the US.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Donger

No need for this to be political, but I thought people should see it:

President Trump is expected to sign a five-page executive order under the Defense Production Act today that compels meat processing plants to remain open, CNN has learned.

Trump is expected to sign the order after some companies, like Tyson, were considering only keeping 20% of their facilities open. The vast majority of processing plans could have shut down, which would have reduced processing capacity in the country by as much as 80%, an official familiar says.

By signing the order, Trump will declare these plants as a part of critical infrastructure in the US.

Wrap those MFing workers in giant plastic bags and keep em at work

[Donger]

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at least 335 people across the state died of coronavirus yesterday.

"This is the worst news," Cuomo said of reporting the daily death count. "Every day, I think maybe today's the day the nightmare will be over, but it's not."

Monday's death total is down slightly from the 337 people who died on Sunday.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Did you leave out the age brackets deliberately, or accidentally?

What are you saying? Based on the CDC report 5700 have died that didn't have underlying health conditions. Some of these most likely were older than 65, but I still included those in the calculation of this being less deadly than the flu for those 65 and healthy or under... If you really want to look at deaths by age, I don't think you will find the numbers you think.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Horrible comparison...

Was social distancing being put into place when these deaths happened during the flu season?

It's not a horrible comparison. We can use policy as much as we can to isolate those in high risk group, and let everyone else open up. Sweden will most likely be proven to have the right approach in the long run, especially if there is another wave.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

What are you saying? Based on the CDC report 5700 have died that didn't have underlying health conditions. Some of these most likely were older than 65, but I still included those in the calculation of this being less deadly than the flu for those 65 and healthy or under... If you really want to look at deaths by age, I don't think you will find the numbers you think.

This is what I've been trying to tell you, you are making this statement continually that "this is less deadly than the flu for those under 65" with absolutely no data broken down that way.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

What are you saying? Based on the CDC report 5700 have died that didn't have underlying health conditions. Some of these most likely were older than 65, but I still included those in the calculation of this being less deadly than the flu for those 65 and healthy or under... If you really want to look at deaths by age, I don't think you will find the numbers you think.

You didn't include any ages or age bracket data in that post.