Chiefs The whole key to the offseason right here - Page 6

Chris Meck · 02-21-2019, 06:42 PM

I brought this up in another thread, but I feel like it may warrant it's own.

IF you cut Houston, it costs you $7 million, (5.6 if you wait till June 2 but you kinda can't wait that long to free up the cash)

If you tag and keep Ford, it's going to cost you like $16 million.

So you've got $23 million conservatively wrapped up in one position: RDE.

IF you keep Houston at $21 million, and tag and trade Ford's $16 million,

you have $21 million in that RDE position. PLUS you get the pick for Ford, which will be I think a decent #2 and perhaps a low #1.

With the extra high pick, you draft a RDE somewhere in your 4 picks in the top 64, along with a CB, and a S.

You'll have enough for one, maybe two impact FA's and be set for next year, when you can cut Houston for only $1.5 dead cap.

I think we've been looking at this wrong; it's a net savings to keep HOUSTON and let FORD go. He's also the better all-around player.

Chris Meck · 02-21-2019, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

With the new coaching staff on defense, I expect the run defense to be much improved with or without Ford. With that in mind, for me, I keep him because he’s such a dangerous pass rusher.

I agree. I just argue that snap for snap, Houston's just as dangerous and a better run defender.

both are equal injury risks, I think.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 02-21-2019, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

With the new coaching staff on defense, I expect the run defense to be much improved with or without Ford. With that in mind, for me, I keep him because he’s such a dangerous pass rusher.

Pass rushers don't fall off trees. Spags will be sending him in to destroy QB's. And Houston is strong as an OX and built to stop the run. I hope he restructures.

Edit: Has this already been said?

pugsnotdrugs19 · 02-21-2019, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Pass rushers don't fall off trees. Spags will be sending him in to destroy QB's. And Houston is strong as an OX and built to stop the run. I hope he restructures.

Edit: Has this already been said?

I think we’d all love to see Houston restructure and stay, but word is that’s not going to happen.

He can’t be kept at $21M.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 02-21-2019, 10:18 PM

I’d say they keep Ford, cut Houston, sign a veteran insurance policy such as Shane Ray, and draft an edge rusher early if the opportunity is right.

If not, again, you sign a veteran to protect against it such as Ray or someone else.

**Iowanian** · 02-21-2019, 10:38 PM

Ford has been healthy and productive one season...one. His contract year. He's a liability against the run too. Fords r
Trade value wouldn't be higher than this year.

Houston has injury concerns as well and hasn t performed to his contract since he got paid.

I don't care hat the Chiefs do with either one....renegotiate, re-sign or trade for the best deal. Don't care.

bigbucks24 · 02-21-2019, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Panthers or browns at 16 and 17 respectively. Maybe?

I'm just looking at possible needs along with a spot we could seriously have a shot at getting to without giving up too much.

What would you guys think about trading for Collins? If they Giants tag him, the Chiefs could trade their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick and their 3rd next year for him and then give him a huge contract.

Because that is what some of you are expecting others team to do with Ford. The 16th pick is work 1000 points. That is the same as the deal I just proposed for the Chiefs. I think chief fans are a little overly-optimistic about the realistic return for ford. I personally don't think they are getting a 1st for him and I doubt they get a 2nd for him. All of this is really about speculating that you get a high round draft pick for him. What if they tag him and he signs and then the best offer is a 3rd?

**SAUTO** · 02-21-2019, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbucks24

What would you guys think about trading for Collins? If they Giants tag him, the Chiefs could trade their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick and their 3rd next year for him and then give him a huge contract.

Because that is what some of you are expecting others team to do with Ford. The 16th pick is work 1000 points. That is the same as the deal I just proposed for the Chiefs. I think chief fans are a little overly-optimistic about the realistic return for ford. I personally don't think they are getting a 1st for him and I doubt they get a 2nd for him. All of this is really about speculating that you get a high round draft pick for him. What if they tag him and he signs and then the best offer is a 3rd?

read through first maybe.

I don't think ford is worth the 16 or 17 by himself.

**BossChief** · 02-21-2019, 10:50 PM

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

**SAUTO** · 02-21-2019, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

I could get down with this

bigbucks24 · 02-21-2019, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAUTO

read through first maybe.

I don't think ford is worth the 16 or 17 by himself.

And Sauto, I wasn't aiming that post at you. I just think some people are pretty optimistic about the return for Ford and are going to be disappointed. I can't imagine a fanbase being excited to trade a 1st or high 2nd for Ford and then turn around and give him a record deal.

arrwheader · 02-21-2019, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

they're welcome to try. If there's not takers, they're on the hook for the franchise tag number. It's either an attractive player or it's not.

Pretty sure they can hit him with a transition tag which allows other teams to match the offer of the tag to get him if not the team he’s with is stuck with it.

If they tag him out right and trade him he will negotiate a new deal most likely but don’t think the Chiefs are on the hook for shit.

Chris Meck · 02-21-2019, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbucks24

What would you guys think about trading for Collins? If they Giants tag him, the Chiefs could trade their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick and their 3rd next year for him and then give him a huge contract.

Because that is what some of you are expecting others team to do with Ford. The 16th pick is work 1000 points. That is the same as the deal I just proposed for the Chiefs. I think chief fans are a little overly-optimistic about the realistic return for ford. I personally don't think they are getting a 1st for him and I doubt they get a 2nd for him. All of this is really about speculating that you get a high round draft pick for him. What if they tag him and he signs and then the best offer is a 3rd?

uhh, no. Nobody said anything like that. My estimate is a #2 which is pretty reasonable. It's possible you might snag a late #1. Some package of picks to swap might bring something higher. He'll be a hot commodity, injury history or no for teams with cap room.

But nobody's talking about a premium player plus 1, 2, 3 for him, you're being facetious.

Chief Northman · 02-21-2019, 11:13 PM

Here's the trouble from my POV:

- As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not.
- Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit.
- I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT:
i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency.
ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade.
iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged.

This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).

Chris Meck · 02-21-2019, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

that'd be dope but I doubt you can do all of that.

Chris Meck · 02-21-2019, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Here's the trouble from my POV:

- As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not.
- Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit.
- I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT:
i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency.
ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade.
iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged.

This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).

that's fair, but-Ford's tag money comes off as soon as a trade gets done.
He's the most talented pure pass rusher available. he's going to be sought after. I think it more likely that teams are competing to nab him than ignoring and waiting.

You have some cap money early-until you get all your own guys done and draftees signed. They literally have enough money right at the start of FA to sign a Landon Collins; you just have other bills you need to pay so you can't unless there's cap relief elsewhere. You've got plenty of time before those bills are due. You've got $25 million or so right now; you just need a bunch of that before camp. you could sign a couple of guys and wait on some other things, like extending players.

You can shop, talk, and negotiate with players; you don't have to wait for Ford's deal to be done to do anything but sign on the dotted line if it's more than you've got at that moment under the cap.
Again, I think that'll be sooner than later as long as he clear's a team's physical. Hell, if you have questions, a team with cap room can play him on the tag themselves and see if he's worth re-signing next year.

Cutting Houston almost pays for Ford as long as you don't consider the $7
million in dead cap money. It's literally cheaper to pay Houston and tag-and-trade Ford-and if you count NEXT YEAR's cap, it's a LOT cheaper. Which Veach has to take into account.

Keeping Ford and cutting Houston costs $24 million on this year's cap.
Keeping Houston and trading Ford costs $21 million plus whatever pick you get from Ford.

And next year, you can cut Houston for $1.5 million against the cap. Next year, if you re-sign Ford it's going to be more like Houston's $21 million IF HE BALLS OUT. If he doesn't, it was all for naught.

I get what you're saying, I just think it's literally the better fiscal move. And I think the team is better with a well rounded player there.

02-21-2019, 06:42 PM
Chris Meck MVP Join Date: May 2001 Location: midtown KC Casino cash: $1814910	The whole key to the offseason right here I brought this up in another thread, but I feel like it may warrant it's own. IF you cut Houston, it costs you $7 million, (5.6 if you wait till June 2 but you kinda can't wait that long to free up the cash) If you tag and keep Ford, it's going to cost you like $16 million. So you've got $23 million conservatively wrapped up in one position: RDE. IF you keep Houston at $21 million, and tag and trade Ford's $16 million, you have $21 million in that RDE position. PLUS you get the pick for Ford, which will be I think a decent #2 and perhaps a low #1. With the extra high pick, you draft a RDE somewhere in your 4 picks in the top 64, along with a CB, and a S. You'll have enough for one, maybe two impact FA's and be set for next year, when you can cut Houston for only $1.5 dead cap. I think we've been looking at this wrong; it's a net savings to keep HOUSTON and let FORD go. He's also the better all-around player.
Posts: 17,564

02-21-2019, 10:18 PM	#79
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $9119447	I’d say they keep Ford, cut Houston, sign a veteran insurance policy such as Shane Ray, and draft an edge rusher early if the opportunity is right. If not, again, you sign a veteran to protect against it such as Ray or someone else.
Posts: 26,377	1 0

02-21-2019, 10:38 PM	#80
Iowanian Supporter Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Utopia Casino cash: $4698454	Ford has been healthy and productive one season...one. His contract year. He's a liability against the run too. Fords r Trade value wouldn't be higher than this year. Houston has injury concerns as well and hasn t performed to his contract since he got paid. I don't care hat the Chiefs do with either one....renegotiate, re-sign or trade for the best deal. Don't care.
Posts: 61,545	1 0

02-21-2019, 10:50 PM	#83
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $1754088	Cut Murray Berry Sorenson Ragland Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s Trade Houston and a third for a second Sign Earl Thomas Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey Shane Ray Trey Flowers Extend Hill Jones __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,145

02-21-2019, 11:13 PM	#88
Chief Northman MVP Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Canada Casino cash: $6890890	Here's the trouble from my POV: - As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not. - Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit. - I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT: i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency. ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade. iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged. This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).
Posts: 8,150