***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think we've gotten to the point that we can say NY is just an outlier. Something has happened there thats just different. So far atleast.

I said that more or less the entire time. For whatever reason(s) them and NJ are literally 3 times as worse as everyone else.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think we've gotten to the point that we can say NY is just an outlier. Something has happened there thats just different. So far atleast.

NYC was similar to Spain, France, Italy etc why is Toronto get it worse than Vancouver. At one point 12% of hospitalizations in Canada were patients under 40 , the numbers just seem all over right now.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

NYC was similar to Spain, France, Italy etc why is Toronto get it worse than Vancouver. At one point 12% of hospitalizations in Canada were patients under 40 , the numbers just seem all over right now.

It was always weird to me with China (based on what we know which is who knows) that Wuhan got spiked, yet Beijing didn't. Maybe they locked them all down that hard?

[KC Dan]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think we've gotten to the point that we can say NY is just an outlier. Something has happened there thats just different. So far atleast.

Subways running

[lewdog]

Little update on us. Of close to 200 residents and employees tested we had dozens of positive tests. I don’t know exact number. Of those positives around 50% are totally asymptotic. Does that seem likely?

Also this was jabbed and twisted for like 8 seconds. Eyes watering and I thought I was bleeding afterwards.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Little update on us. Of close to 200 residents and employees tested we had dozens of positive tests. I don’t know exact number. Of those positives around 50% are totally asymptotic. Does that seem likely?

Also this was jabbed and twisted for like 8 seconds. Eyes watering and I thought I was bleeding afterwards.

Asymptomatic cases are extremely common, yes.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Asymptomatic cases are extremely common, yes.

I wonder how many of these asymptomatic positives end up becoming symptomatic.

They say that incubation is 2 to 14 days (last I checked) with median of ~5. So, would a person show positive for COVD-19 on, say, day 3?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wonder how many of these asymptomatic positives end up becoming symptomatic.



They say that incubation is 2 to 14 days (last I checked) with median of ~5. So, would a person show positive for COVD-19 on, say, day 3?

Tough to say, but the limited antibody testing suggests that there are tons who never show symptoms at all.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Frankly, I wish more people would just get over it and argue in those terms. It's the "lives are priceless" BS that I don't really think is productive.

While it's harsh, those are the kinds of decisions we're really talking about here, and I wish we could just be more clear about it.

For the record, I personally don't think I'm willing to throw up my hands and accept that level of death, but I don't think you're a bad person for suggesting that it wouldn't be the end of the world.

I am not either. Is it worth it to anybody to kill your parents or grandparents because you want to go back to "normal." Jobs will come back, being dead is forever.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Tough to say, but the limited antibody testing suggests that there are tons who never show symptoms at all.

The antibodies tests I think have false positives to account for depending on sensitivity and specifity .

[ChiliConCarnage]

I wonder what’s wrong with the IHME models death figures? It’s still projecting 72k deaths by August 4th. We're clearly going to pass that in the next couple of days, let alone out to August.

It does have a shared range for uncertainty that goes up to 110k but still

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

I wonder what’s wrong with the IHME models death figures? It’s still projecting 72k deaths by August 4th. We're clearly going to pass that in the next couple of days, let alone out to August.

It does have a shared range for uncertainty that goes up to 110k but still

For states like MO that are re-opening they stop projecting because their model is about using social distancing.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am not either. Is it worth it to anybody to kill your parents or grandparents because you want to go back to "normal." Jobs will come back, being dead is forever.

Again just playing Devil’s advocate ....how many people that are “not worth” losing are worth shutting everything down? No one wants to lose anyone for any reason. It’s really an argument of the few vs. the many. I hate to say it but that is just how life is unfortunately and it sucks but it is what it is.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

I wonder what’s wrong with the IHME models death figures? It’s still projecting 72k deaths by August 4th. We're clearly going to pass that in the next couple of days, let alone out to August.

It does have a shared range for uncertainty that goes up to 110k but still

I would be more curious to see what is actually happening in hospitals in NYC rather than models , what frontline workers think . If the head of the ICU in NY says we good I think that would hold more weight

Decisions should be made regionally without political influence. Hard lol I know

[Discuss Thrower]

International Labour Organization reports 1.6 billion workers will lose their sources of income.