So what ‘thing’ will Belichick try and take away from the Chiefs offense?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kcclone

Great for us then

It worked for a half. How else would you defend Mahomes?

[Fritz88]

Not worried a bit, looking forward to the SB match.

Chiefs have invested in so many weapons to pay off now. It’s about time.

[Sully]

If I'm the Patriots, I want 2 guys on Kelce, and a bracket on Hill. Make us beat them with anyone else.
They like to put their best CB on the other teams' #2 WR, and bracket the best guy, so I assume that will be the plan.

Screen game will be huge.

[Mecca]

Actually in the 1st game they showed the Chiefs a bunch of cover 0 and all out blitzes...good chance they fake that shit and drop out this time.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Actually in the 1st game they showed the Chiefs a bunch of cover 0 and all out blitzes...good chance they fake that shit and drop out this time.

They mixed it up pretty well, actually. Cover 0 (obviously) and mega-blitzes in the red-zone, to be sure. They also ran Cover 0 in predictable passing downs (2nd and long, 3rd and long, etc.).

But it looks like either Cover 2 or Quarters and Single Safety most of the time. The tried to disguise their coverage too. A Cover 0 pre-snap look with the safety dropping fast and hard at the snap. Also showed man on motion but played zone in the middle.

The way I see it, if this hadn't been Mahomes' 7th game of his career, that first half would have been very different for our offense. Kelce could have had a much better game if Mahomes had been a little more cool and calm. He seemed uncomfortable in the first half and didn't see Open Kelce and Wide Damn Open Watkins a few times. Broke the pocket way too early when he didn't have to.

Wally needs to have an answer for Bill's red-zone defense, though. Those bastards get nasty down there.

FAX

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by FAX

They mixed it up pretty well, actually. Cover 0 (obviously) and mega-blitzes in the red-zone, to be sure. They also ran Cover 0 in predictable passing downs (2nd and long, 3rd and long, etc.).

IIRC, they ran Cover 0 on that Kelce overthrow that would have a been a TD. Instead we settle for 3. I think there was another overthrow of Hill (??) on a different drive where we settled for 3.

Honestly, if they run that again, I expect Mahomes to not make the same mistake(s). Though, I don't think they'll risk it again...especially in the red zone. Maybe in the middle of the field but I think they'll zone it up inside the 10(ish).

[FAX]

Originally Posted by bobbything

IIRC, they ran Cover 0 on that Kelce overthrow that would have a been a TD. Instead we settle for 3. I think there was another overthrow of Hill (??) on a different drive where we settled for 3.

Honestly, if they run that again, I expect Mahomes to not make the same mistake(s). Though, I don't think they'll risk it again...especially in the red zone. Maybe in the middle of the field but I think they'll zone it up inside the 10(ish).

I just watched the All-22 of the first half again and saw (maybe) 2 Cover 0 schemes. There was one other Cover 0 "look" but the safety dropped out at the snap. Maybe people are seeing things differently, but when I see a deep safety, I don't think "Cover 0".

I've mentioned it before, but what killed us in that first half was the inability of the o-line to deal with their rush plan. They line up as though they're rushing 6 or 7, 3 drop out, and wind up rushing 3 (or sometimes 4). The problem was that almost all those rushers (the 3 or 4 guys) got into the backfield because the o-line was confused as hell and wound up blocking people who weren't coming (blocking air or each other, basically). That was a problem. There were other problems of course, but that was a key issue for us in that first half.

I'll bet they didn't blitz us more than 10 times all game.

FAX

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by FAX

They mixed it up pretty well, actually. Cover 0 (obviously) and mega-blitzes in the red-zone, to be sure. They also ran Cover 0 in predictable passing downs (2nd and long, 3rd and long, etc.).

But it looks like either Cover 2 or Quarters and Single Safety most of the time. The tried to disguise their coverage too. A Cover 0 pre-snap look with the safety dropping fast and hard at the snap. Also showed man on motion but played zone in the middle.

The way I see it, if this hadn't been Mahomes' 7th game of his career, that first half would have been very different for our offense. Kelce could have had a much better game if Mahomes had been a little more cool and calm. He seemed uncomfortable in the first half and didn't see Open Kelce and Wide Damn Open Watkins a few times. Broke the pocket way too early when he didn't have to.

Wally needs to have an answer for Bill's red-zone defense, though. Those bastards get nasty down there.

FAX

Well if the Cheatriots get away with tackling Kelce in the endzone I suspect it will be hard to score there.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Actually in the 1st game they showed the Chiefs a bunch of cover 0 and all out blitzes...good chance they fake that shit and drop out this time.

They also played cover 0 against Rivers too. I don't think they do it as much Sunday, BB isn't that kind of coach. He's going to change it all up.

[Shaid]

yeah, I expect some effort to make Mahomes roll left so he needs to constantly make the contorted throws. He's great at them but the more you have to do it, the more likely you are to make a mistake.

[DJ's left nut]

Gotta consider the combination of 'want to' and 'able to'.

Look - the Pats can get all gung-ho about 'taking away' Tyreek Hill all they want, but that's gonna be a Pyrrhic victory for them.

JC Jackson is a revelation and a hell of a find for them. But y'know, there's a lot of Charvarious Ward in him as well and if you asked me if I'd be comfortable telling Ward - "okay, Tyreek Hill is yours, go get 'em"...uh, no.

And so that leaves them sending Gilmore out there to cover him and that's where the Pyrrhic element comes into play. If they really want to take Gilmore, who's really capable of shutting down his entire side if they use him that way, and have him wear himself slick chasing Tyreek Hill all over the field --- okay. Have fun with that. But the jet actions, long crossers and downfield routes are going to take a lot of piss of out Gilmore. When you have some of the league's top corners talking about just not being able to keep their legs under them trying to shadow that guy, that means something.

I think BB will understand that the cost of trying to shut down Hill will just be too great. Instead he needs to bank on the fact that the biggest homerun plays to Hill are also the hardest ones to simply execute well. Play him as you would most other WRs and hope that Mahomes just misses.

Because if you throw a shitload of capital at trying to stop Hill, you're ceding far easier throws to Watkins and Kelce. Hell, Williams out of the backfield could go crazy. And all of those throws will be simple pitches and catches for 8 yards here, 14 yards there. Low degree of difficulty, high margin for error throws that will bleed them out.

If I'm the Patriots I think I do the opposite of what everyone else is saying - I MAKE them beat me with big plays and hope they can't. I look to shut down the underneath routes to Watkins and Kelce that Mahomes can make (literally) with his eyes closed. I go out there and hope that he simply misses on a few of those, get them behind the sticks, gets them punting and the offense can answer to the tune of a 10-14 point lead that gets that crowd real nervous, real fast.

If the Patriots win this game it will be because the Chiefs didn't execute at their best. If both teams play A games, the Chiefs will win it. So they have to operate under the assumption that the way to force a B game will be a combination of higher level throws and unforced errors.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think BB will understand that the cost of trying to shut down Hill will just be too great. Instead he needs to bank on the fact that the biggest homerun plays to Hill are also the hardest ones to simply execute well. Play him as you would most other WRs and hope that Mahomes just misses.

Because if you throw a shitload of capital at trying to stop Hill, you're ceding far easier throws to Watkins and Kelce. Hell, Williams out of the backfield could go crazy. And all of those throws will be simple pitches and catches for 8 yards here, 14 yards there. Low degree of difficulty, high margin for error throws that will bleed them out.

If I'm the Patriots I think I do the opposite of what everyone else is saying - I MAKE them beat me with big plays and hope they can't. I look to shut down the underneath routes to Watkins and Kelce that Mahomes can make (literally) with his eyes closed. I go out there and hope that he simply misses on a few of those, get them behind the sticks, gets them punting and the offense can answer to the tune of a 10-14 point lead that gets that crowd real nervous, real fast.

If the Patriots win this game it will be because the Chiefs didn't execute at their best. If both teams play A games, the Chiefs will win it. So they have to operate under the assumption that the way to force a B game will be a combination of higher level throws and unforced errors.

This is exactly how my thinking has evolved this week. Mahomes has been missing Hill lately. I think they gamble that he continues that -- and in a big game, if he misses Hill early, he might become a bit frustrated and miss him more, or try to go back to him too often looking for redemption.

But if Mahomes and Hill are clicking ... lights out.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

This is exactly how my thinking has evolved this week. Mahomes has been missing Hill lately. I think they gamble that he continues that -- and in a big game, if he misses Hill early, he might become a bit frustrated and miss him more, or try to go back to him too often looking for redemption.

But if Mahomes and Hill are clicking ... lights out.

Exactly.

Look - if the Chiefs play well, the Patriots ain't winning. They just aren't. It's a testament to how ungodly good of a coach Bill Belichick is that I'm still nervous. The chiefs are as good or better at every meaningful personnel group if Berry can get on the field. The Pats have an edge at ILB but if you just refer to 'DL' and 'LB', I'd take our group on both fronts. The secondaries are similarly mediocre with the Patriots having both the best and worst players in that group, IMO and the Chiefs having a little more depth.

Our WRs absolutely smoke theirs and our TE is better than theirs. I like our OL just a little more though I will acknowledge that the Patriots are much like the Colts - their whole is better than its parts. I like their RBs better than ours but really, that's just how they've been utilized more than anything. Williams and White are effectively the exact same player and Michel, while probably a little better than Ware, is going to be neutralized somewhat by the silent snap count impacting the OL's get-off.

The Chiefs are BETTER than the Patriots. They just are. So if the Patriots try to put together a gameplan that says "well we're just going to go out there and whup 'em" - they're doing it wrong. They need to do some triage here and say "well hell, let's hope that the rotting leg here doesn't kill the patient and we'll work on everything else..."

Dammit I wish Bill Belichick wasn't their coach...

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Exactly.

Look - if the Chiefs play well, the Patriots ain't winning. They just aren't. It's a testament to how ungodly good of a coach Bill Belichick is that I'm still nervous. The chiefs are as good or better at every meaningful personnel group if Berry can get on the field. The Pats have an edge at ILB but if you just refer to 'DL' and 'LB', I'd take our group on both fronts. The secondaries are similarly mediocre with the Patriots having both the best and worst players in that group, IMO and the Chiefs having a little more depth.

Our WRs absolutely smoke theirs and our TE is better than theirs. I like our OL just a little more though I will acknowledge that the Patriots are much like the Colts - their whole is better than its parts. I like their RBs better than ours but really, that's just how they've been utilized more than anything. Williams and White are effectively the exact same player and Michel, while probably a little better than Ware, is going to be neutralized somewhat by the silent snap count impacting the OL's get-off.

The Chiefs are BETTER than the Patriots. They just are. So if the Patriots try to put together a gameplan that says "well we're just going to go out there and whup 'em" - they're doing it wrong. They need to do some triage here and say "well hell, let's hope that the rotting leg here doesn't kill the patient and we'll work on everything else..."

Dammit I wish Bill Belichick wasn't their coach...

I feel like Damien Williams might be a big part of this game. I foresee Bill doubling Kelce and playing cover 2/cover 3 to take away the big play. I think there will be a lot
Of eyes on those guys.

And when that happens I think Andy will take advantage of it by disguising and running plays like this:

Damien Williams is left open and gains 32 for the @Chiefs! #ChiefsKingdom

📺: @nflnetwork + @NFLonFOX
📱+💻: https://t.co/DJUityQHC9 pic.twitter.com/IckwVx34JA

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2018

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Gotta consider the combination of 'want to' and 'able to'.

Look - the Pats can get all gung-ho about 'taking away' Tyreek Hill all they want, but that's gonna be a Pyrrhic victory for them.

JC Jackson is a revelation and a hell of a find for them. But y'know, there's a lot of Charvarious Ward in him as well and if you asked me if I'd be comfortable telling Ward - "okay, Tyreek Hill is yours, go get 'em"...uh, no.

And so that leaves them sending Gilmore out there to cover him and that's where the Pyrrhic element comes into play. If they really want to take Gilmore, who's really capable of shutting down his entire side if they use him that way, and have him wear himself slick chasing Tyreek Hill all over the field --- okay. Have fun with that. But the jet actions, long crossers and downfield routes are going to take a lot of piss of out Gilmore. When you have some of the league's top corners talking about just not being able to keep their legs under them trying to shadow that guy, that means something.

I think BB will understand that the cost of trying to shut down Hill will just be too great. Instead he needs to bank on the fact that the biggest homerun plays to Hill are also the hardest ones to simply execute well. Play him as you would most other WRs and hope that Mahomes just misses.

Because if you throw a shitload of capital at trying to stop Hill, you're ceding far easier throws to Watkins and Kelce. Hell, Williams out of the backfield could go crazy. And all of those throws will be simple pitches and catches for 8 yards here, 14 yards there. Low degree of difficulty, high margin for error throws that will bleed them out.

If I'm the Patriots I think I do the opposite of what everyone else is saying - I MAKE them beat me with big plays and hope they can't. I look to shut down the underneath routes to Watkins and Kelce that Mahomes can make (literally) with his eyes closed. I go out there and hope that he simply misses on a few of those, get them behind the sticks, gets them punting and the offense can answer to the tune of a 10-14 point lead that gets that crowd real nervous, real fast.

If the Patriots win this game it will be because the Chiefs didn't execute at their best. If both teams play A games, the Chiefs will win it. So they have to operate under the assumption that the way to force a B game will be a combination of higher level throws and unforced errors.

This is what I'd do if I was BB. We'll see what happens.

Regarding Mahomes on deep balls - dumbass Fouts actually had some good advice on this one - Mahomes need to put more loft under his deep balls, to let his receiver track it and add a little wiggle room.

Seems like he's throwing these 40-50 yard ropes that just have to be perfect to hit the receiver in stride. With a little loft the receiver might have to come back a little and get tackled. But at least he catches it. Or if it's a little overthrown Tyreek can turn on the afterburners and maybe catch up to it. That is a massive luxury to have - a receiver who can get a few steps on a DB w/o even running full speed. We need to take advantage of it.