Are the Bills overhyped?

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Update: Yes, the Bills were overhyped.

Will the next edition prove to be overhyped too? Stay tuned…

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

At the risk of repeating myself - it's just an odds thing.

Look at what they play vs. what we play. They just have an easier road by FAR. And with that in mind, it improves their chances at the 1 seed, the bye, HFA and the ability to rest some guys to get healthy into the playoffs. The 'stacked AFC' largely doesn't concern them because they don't have any real threats in the East and they get a soft NFC North while the AFC West has to take on the NFC West.

In some ways, because of how insulated they are from the teeth of the conference, the 'intense' AFC field is an advantage for them because those teams will largely cannibalize each other.

I got downvoted into oblivion a few days ago bc I picked the Bills to go to the SB.

They are just loaded man. Their defense is as good as it gets. Best safety duo in the league, Tre White coming back, 1st rd corner, Edmunds and Milano at LB. Now they added Von Miller to their DL that had a promising rookie DE and Ed Oliver is a quality DT.

They just don’t have many holes. And sure injuries could derail them just like any team but on paper they are looking great.

And their division is garbage. They are going 5-1 at worst.

[Chris Meck]

No, they're not over-hyped, they're real damned good and will be tough to beat.

Next question.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

At the risk of repeating myself - it's just an odds thing.

Look at what they play vs. what we play. They just have an easier road by FAR. And with that in mind, it improves their chances at the 1 seed, the bye, HFA and the ability to rest some guys to get healthy into the playoffs. The 'stacked AFC' largely doesn't concern them because they don't have any real threats in the East and they get a soft NFC North while the AFC West has to take on the NFC West.

In some ways, because of how insulated they are from the teeth of the conference, the 'intense' AFC field is an advantage for them because those teams will largely cannibalize each other.

I get that. But a 2-4 start (losses to Rams, @Dolphins, @ Ravens, @Chiefs) to start the season could change that outlook a LOT. And shoot, they have the Packers week 7. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them start 2-5

Their schedule isn't as light as it was last year, and they still managed to bumble their way to 6 losses. Which is actually where I've got them this year.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Next question.

ARE YOU GAY?

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I get that. But a 2-4 start (losses to Rams, @Dolphins, @ Ravens, @Chiefs) to start the season could change that outlook a LOT. And shoot, they have the Packers week 7. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them start 2-5

Their schedule isn't as light as it was last year, and they still managed to bumble their way to 6 losses. Which is actually where I've got them this year.

They're a damn good team. Right up there with the Chiefs in the AFC. That said, kind of agree with what Duncan said. They have a paper thin division schedule, but a difficult start overall. If they get through that first 7 games 5-2 or 6-1, then, yeah, they're a powerhouse. But I could easily see 4-3, 3-4 or even (worst case scenario) 2-5.

They may very well roll the first 2 months, but I'll need to see it to believe it.

[ChiefsCountry]

More stupid shit people believe that Josh Allen is better than Mahomes

Career I’d want going forward... #NFL

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) September 8, 2022

[TomBarndtsTwin]

I mean, we were the BIG favorites in the AFC starting last year, but we had a pretty difficult early schedule and started 3-4.

So let's temper the ridiculous hyperbole about the Bills until we see how they navigate their first 7 games . . . . . . .

[KChiefs1]

Everyone is picking the Bills. Awesome!


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[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Exactly. The Bills have to try and not win the AFC East.

They win the AFC East by default.


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[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Very good coach is debatable the decision to kick it into the end zone at the end of the game is questionable . If Reid was on their sideline and McDermott on our side I would be we lose that game.

Reid is a Hall of Famer. McDermott is not.

But he's still a good coach. Wanna quibble with 'very' good and I won't get too spun up about it, but he's a quality head coach who runs a good ship. It's not always about tactics - it's about running a cohesive organization that's on the same page. McDermott is a good 'CEO' coach in that he has his guys on the same page and puts people in a position to succeed.

There are maybe 5-6 coaches - 8 tops? - I'd take over McDermott. He's part of their success and not a limiting factor.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

More stupid shit people believe that Josh Allen is better than Mahomes

Career I’d want going forward... #NFL

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) September 8, 2022

Meh.

This is merely a POTM poll.

Last thing people remember about Josh is sad face on the sideline after not getting his chance in OT after back and forth with Mahomes.

Last thing people remember about Burrow is coming up just a little shy of a Lombardi, courtesy of Aaron Donald.


So that's why you see the results you do in that poll. Neither Allen or Burrow have come close to achieving what Mahomes has so far in his short NFL career. They're both great QB's and I'm not taking anything away from them, but that is the reality.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I get that. But a 2-4 start (losses to Rams, @Dolphins, @ Ravens, @Chiefs) to start the season could change that outlook a LOT. And shoot, they have the Packers week 7. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them start 2-5

Their schedule isn't as light as it was last year, and they still managed to bumble their way to 6 losses. Which is actually where I've got them this year.

2-5 wouldn't shock you?

I mean it's not impossible, but it'd surprise the hell out of me. We're giving them that "well if everything goes WRONG" sort of analysis that we gave the Chiefs in the bad old days.

They could just as easily come out of that at 5-2 and having taken on the bulk of their schedule. In fact, I'd give 2 to 1 odds at 5-2 over 2-5. At that point they're set up extremely well for 13-4 season.

And again, there's just nobody else in the AFC with that kind of upside because the damn conference is just so freakin' hard.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

No, they're not over-hyped, they're real damned good and will be tough to beat.

Next question.

17-0?


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[the steam]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Very good coach is debatable the decision to kick it into the end zone at the end of the game is questionable . If Reid was on their sideline and McDermott on our side I would be we lose that game.

That was literally one of the biggest coaching blunders in NFL history. Right there with Pete Carrol blowing the SB by refusing to run the ball

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

2-5 wouldn't shock you?

I mean it's not impossible, but it'd surprise the hell out of me. We're giving them that "well if everything goes WRONG" sort of analysis that we gave the Chiefs in the bad old days.

They could just as easily come out of that at 5-2 and having taken on the bulk of their schedule. In fact, I'd give 2 to 1 odds at 5-2 over 2-5. At that point they're set up extremely well for 13-4 season.

And again, there's just nobody else in the AFC with that kind of upside because the damn conference is just so freakin' hard.

It wouldn't shock me in that I think there's about a 1/10 chance something like that happens.

I expect Buffalo to lose tonight. I expect the Chiefs to beat them.

Beyond that?

@ Dolphins - Bills likely win (around 3.5/5 chance), but the Dolphins have a TON of speed at WR, a brand-new scheme the Bills have yet to see up close, and a good secondary defensively. Also, Tre White will still be on PUP for this one, leaving Waddle and Hill matched up against a green secondary.

@ Ravens - Baltimore is due for a rebound, has a QB who can give Buffalo problems, it's on the Road, Ravens' secondary is deep and good. I think this is a coin toss.

Packers - Another coin toss for me. Green Bay's secondary is high-quality, especially CB1 and CB2. They can defend the run and get after the passer. And then there's Aaron Rodgers and a really good OL.

Worst-case scenario is certainly 2-5. I'd put that at about 10 percent likelihood.

I just don't think their schedule is as big of a cake walk as it was last year (when they went 11-6), I think Tre White being out will matter more early (when the schedule is hardest), and I think people are overestimating the upgrade from Jerry Hughes to Von Miller.

Yes, Miller is the name. But he also tallied 30 pressures in 764 snaps last year. Hughes popped 26 in 558 snaps.

Again. The Bills are really good. But their road is tougher and the upgrades could easily be smaller than perceived.