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Old 01-16-2019, 09:10 AM   #1
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I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:22 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
I've resigned myself to the fact that they aren't likely to dip a foot into the big name free agency pool. Maybe a toe, but they've just got too many guys that are gonna get broken off in house.

The only way I can see it is if they are able to get something done with Houston and Berry money wise to save some, but hell, i'm not really even sure if that's possible.

You've also got Schwartz who could ask for a raise.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:48 AM   #3
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I've resigned myself to the fact that they aren't likely to dip a foot into the big name free agency pool. Maybe a toe, but they've just got too many guys that are gonna get broken off in house.

The only way I can see it is if they are able to get something done with Houston and Berry money wise to save some, but hell, i'm not really even sure if that's possible.

You've also got Schwartz who could ask for a raise.
Hard to ask for a raise when you're still 2 years away from FA. If they wanted to give him a 2 year extension to keep him around for 4 years and in so doing give him a signing bonus that creates a year 1 cash bump, it could be done in a largely cap neutral fashion and take care of him for a little while longer. He'd have more money in pocket and we'd have long-term stability there. So you give him a 2 year, $22 million extension w/ a $8 million signing bonus maybe? So that would yield a 4 year, $43 million deal (when his current 2 remaining years at $13 million are added in). You could give him a base salary of $2 million in year 1 then 6, 7 and 8 years 3-4.

So in year 1 he'd get $10 million in salary and signing bonus with a cap hit of $6.8 million (2 million in pro-rated bonus, 2 million in base and 2.8 in accelerated bonus off his previous deal). Years 2-4 would be at 8, 9 and 10 respectively in cap. His cash payments in year 2 would be a slight bump from 6.5 to 7 and his cap figure would be effectively unchanged that year. His next two years would see slightly below market salaries but if we were to guarantee the salary for years 2 and 3, that would provide him incentive to take it.

It's doable and if you were interested, now would be the time given that there's still some risk of age/injury related decline. That said, he just had the best year of his career and he may be more inclined to simply bet on himself.

It's just damn hard for a player to hold out these days with the penalties associated with it. Especially when they don't play a high profile position and have 2 more years left on the deal.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:52 AM   #4
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Hard to ask for a raise when you're still 2 years away from FA. If they wanted to give him a 2 year extension to keep him around for 4 years and in so doing give him a signing bonus that creates a year 1 cash bump, it could be done in a largely cap neutral fashion and take care of him for a little while longer. He'd have more money in pocket and we'd have long-term stability there. So you give him a 2 year, $22 million extension w/ a $8 million signing bonus maybe? So that would yield a 4 year, $43 million deal (when his current 2 remaining years at $13 million are added in). You could give him a base salary of $2 million in year 1 then 6, 7 and 8 years 3-4.

So in year 1 he'd get $10 million in salary and signing bonus with a cap hit of $6.8 million (2 million in pro-rated bonus, 2 million in base and 2.8 in accelerated bonus off his previous deal). Years 2-4 would be at 8, 9 and 10 respectively in cap. His cash payments in year 2 would be a slight bump from 6.5 to 7 and his cap figure would be effectively unchanged that year. His next two years would see slightly below market salaries but if we were to guarantee the salary for years 2 and 3, that would provide him incentive to take it.

It's doable and if you were interested, now would be the time given that there's still some risk of age/injury related decline. That said, he just had the best year of his career and he may be more inclined to simply bet on himself.

It's just damn hard for a player to hold out these days with the penalties associated with it. Especially when they don't play a high profile position and have 2 more years left on the deal.
True.

Just based on his social media and his wifes and his brothers, I think he really likes in in KC. Especially now with Mahomes, he seems to really like being with Andy. He's a leader on the offense for sure so I wouldn't be upset keeping him around. He's a stud.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:55 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
I don't think we have a chance at the younger guys, but someone like Earl Thomas who is a bit older I think we could have a decent chance at.

There are a lot of even older vets out there in FA who we could attract on the cheap. Some productive vets to bolster our defense in the short term could be a good play while we develop our draft picks and make them really earn starting jobs.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:52 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
What makes me feel better is Andy being able to find damn near anybody on offense and making them fit into his scheme nicely. We’ve seen it so many times. Albert Wilson, Cam Erving, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter. Even Bryan Witzmann was decent for awhile.

Really need to keep finding these value players like Ward and Lucas on the defensive side.

We just need to quit failing miserably in high picks like Kareem Hunt, Tanoh Kpassagnon and KeiVarae Russell. Not saying to draft all stars, but just getting a decent return on these guys is so valuable. A complimentary player like Conley, Robinson and Nelson is worth a lot, especially with depth.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:47 PM   #7
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What makes me feel better is Andy being able to find damn near anybody on offense and making them fit into his scheme nicely. We’ve seen it so many times. Albert Wilson, Cam Erving, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter. Even Bryan Witzmann was decent for awhile.

Really need to keep finding these value players like Ward and Lucas on the defensive side.

We just need to quit failing miserably in high picks like Kareem Hunt, Tanoh Kpassagnon and KeiVarae Russell. Not saying to draft all stars, but just getting a decent return on these guys is so valuable. A complimentary player like Conley, Robinson and Nelson is worth a lot, especially with depth.
And soon enough, Breeland Speaks...

I don't have a problem with a flame out on a 3rd rounder and it's hard to really hold Hunt against anyone. But to speak to a different conversation regarding trade-ups - we missed Josh Jackson by one pick. Boy how nice would having him with a season under his belt be in 2019?

Those last couple of 2nd rounders are just abysmally bad picks, IMO. And that has to be the last of those we see for a bit because you can only whiff on so many of those before you have to go into FA to fill holes. And once you do that, you can't keep as many of the Hill/Jones types around anymore.
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Old 01-20-2019, 08:10 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
If we win today, we'll have done so while putting a pile of whatsit on the field on defense all season, the last two games notwithstanding.

No, we don't want to do that to Mahomes for the rest of his career, but it probably behooves us to get those extensions done and hope Veach is damn good at drafting defense.

We can get to the Super Bowl with a great passrush and offensive weapons out the ass. So let's try to stick to that formula as much as possible when add new players in the future. Robbing our pass rush or sacrificing the murderer's row of WRs and playmakers on offense all so we can START to rebuild our run defense will likely result in a transition year in which we don't do anything at an elite level, and we still won't be guaranteed to one day produce that effective run defense. It's dangerous.

Our effective changes are just going to have to come through a change in defensive coaching. Simplifying the scheme so young players can make a greater impact earlier in their careers and putting the pieces we DO have in better positions to play well. That's going to have to be the main source of defensive improvement.
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