The "IF no QB with the 1st pick" poll

[Ebolapox]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

John Elway was a sure thing. Peyton Manning was a sure thing. Ernie Accorsi felt that Eli Manning was a sure thing. Andrew Luck was a sure thing.

errrr, wrong.

elway I can't attest to--I was less than four months old.

manning was such a sure-thing that OVER HALF OF THE NFL GMS WOULD HAVE PICKED RYAN LEAF OVER HIM

eli and andrew luck were both GOOD coming out, but certainly not 'sure things.' as close as you can get, but NOT sure things.

[Ebolapox]

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

errrr, wrong.

elway I can't attest to--I was less than four months old.

manning was such a sure-thing that OVER HALF OF THE NFL GMS WOULD HAVE PICKED RYAN LEAF OVER HIM

eli and andrew luck were both GOOD coming out, but certainly not 'sure things.' as close as you can get, but NOT sure things.

hell, while we're on the topic... ignoring hindsight... was jamarcus russell a 'sure-thing?'

I mean... go look up what mel kiper and ALL OF THE REST OF THE PUNDITS were saying about him. HE WAS THE NEXT JOHN ELWAY.

if that's not a sure thing, I really don't know what is. if you're going to use hindsight, use it evenly-- jamarcus russell was as well-thought of as ANY QB coming out not named luck or manning. where is he right now? good question--he's trying to lose weight so some team won't try him at ****ing left tackle

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

hell, while we're on the topic... ignoring hindsight... was jamarcus russell a 'sure-thing?'

I mean... go look up what mel kiper and ALL OF THE REST OF THE PUNDITS were saying about him. HE WAS THE NEXT JOHN ELWAY.

if that's not a sure thing, I really don't know what is. if you're going to use hindsight, use it evenly-- jamarcus russell was as well-thought of as ANY QB coming out not named luck or manning. where is he right now? good question--he's trying to lose weight so some team won't try him at ****ing left tackle

I agree with everything except Russell. Your premise in general I agree with, just maybe not the example. I never thought Russel would pan out and a decent amount of others felt the same. Then again I was hoping for it since he was going to OAK.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

errrr, wrong.

elway I can't attest to--I was less than four months old.

Elway was drafted by the Yankees and the Colts. The guy was a stud. There was no way he going to fail.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

manning was such a sure-thing that OVER HALF OF THE NFL GMS WOULD HAVE PICKED RYAN LEAF OVER HIM

And everyone one of those GM's would have been fired, just like Beathard was for reaching on Leaf.

The stupidity of GM's doesn't negate the fact that there was absolutely NO WAY Peyton Manning was going to bust.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

eli and andrew luck were both GOOD coming out, but certainly not 'sure things.' as close as you can get, but NOT sure things.

Puh-leeese. Who in their right mind felt that Andrew Luck was anything other than the best QB available in the draft since Peyton Manning?

NO chance that Luck was a bust. None, zero, zilch.

[Ebolapox]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Elway was drafted by the Yankees and the Colts. The guy was a stud. There was no way he going to fail.




And everyone one of those GM's would have been fired, just like Beathard was for reaching on Leaf.

The stupidity of GM's doesn't negate the fact that there was absolutely NO WAY Peyton Manning was going to bust.



Puh-leeese. Who in their right mind felt that Andrew Luck was anything other than the best QB available in the draft since Peyton Manning?

NO chance that Luck was a bust. None, zero, zilch.

you're ignoring the real issue here--you're applying all of your analysis through the lens of HINDSIGHT, man. since none of us has a time machine, OF COURSE THERE WAS NO CHANCE THEY'D BUST

yeah--there was 99% of a chance they weren't going to bust... but in NO world is that EVER 100%. shit happens, man. do we consider percy snow a bust? he was a HELL of a linebacker in college... but, never reached his potential (due to a freak injury, but... SHIT HAPPENS).

hindsight is a bitch, and you remove all doubt when you look at this through that lens. however, DURING AND BEFORE THE DRAFT, hindsight is NOT available.

how does this apply to geno smith? WE CAN'T LOOK BACK IN HINDSIGHT BECAUSE WE AREN'T IN THE ****ING FUTURE.

take-home message? feel free to say that those guys were CAN'T MISS until you're blue in the face. I'll just sit back here and giggle at the fact that you don't realize the logical fallacy you're falling victim to.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

you're ignoring the real issue here--you're applying all of your analysis through the lens of HINDSIGHT, man. since none of us has a time machine, OF COURSE THERE WAS NO CHANCE THEY'D BUST

That's really not true. I'm not using hindsight.

I was a teenager in 1983, had been to countless Chiefs games and hell, even watched the USFL! There was no one like John Elway before or pretty much since.

Note I didn't mention Steve Young, even though he signed a $42 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Express. He was definitely a work in progress unlike Elway, who willed his team to three Super Bowls and won his final two.

Anyone that doubted Manning was an idiot. Anyone that followed him closely knew of and likely watched his father, an amazing QB that played in an era before free agency. Same with Luck. His father was an NFL QB, successful businessman and groomed his son to be an NFL QB, who played like an NFL QB at Stanford.

Sometimes, guys ARE sure things.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

yeah--there was 99% of a chance they weren't going to bust... but in NO world is that EVER 100%. shit happens, man. do we consider percy snow a bust? he was a HELL of a linebacker in college... but, never reached his potential (due to a freak injury, but... SHIT HAPPENS).

Percy Snow started kicking ass in the 11th game of his rookie season. That defense would have been even better had he not injured himself in a dopey moped accident in the following training camp.

But that said, he didn't fail because of ability, he failed due to a freak injury, so it doesn't really count in this discussion. Furthermore, he wasn't the #1 overall choice.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

hindsight is a bitch, and you remove all doubt when you look at this through that lens. however, DURING AND BEFORE THE DRAFT, hindsight is NOT available.

Again, I'm not using hindsight.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

how does this apply to geno smith? WE CAN'T LOOK BACK IN HINDSIGHT BECAUSE WE AREN'T IN THE ****ING FUTURE.

Who said anything about Eugene Smith?

Seriously, I think many people here are so infatuated with him, that they ****ing wet dream at night.

Originally Posted by Ebolapox

take-home message? feel free to say that those guys were CAN'T MISS until you're blue in the face. I'll just sit back here and giggle at the fact that you don't realize the logical fallacy you're falling victim to.

Agree to disagree.

It's not a fallacy, it's a fact. Now, maybe not everyone in the NFL or who watches the NFL felt that Elway, Manning and Luck were "Can't Miss" or "Sure Thing" players, but there was certainly a consensus about each of those guys that they WERE can't miss players.

Anyone who thought otherwise was ****ing stupid.