**** Official 2015 Fantasy Baseball Thread ****

[Discuss Thrower]

It's about that time marthafockers.


I need help. Too much money is on the line to finish in the bottom half like I did last year.

Five keepers off my 2014 team, but I'm only guaranteed to keep three of them.

Twelve team head to head categories (offensively I can't remember exactly, but pitching was Wins, Saves, Quality Starts, Ks, ERA and WHIP. Best teams had saves in spades but this might change with having two new teams this year)

My guys I'll have available who I'd like feedback on:

Kershaw (Would be the #1 overall pick if I kept him)
Greinke (6th round)
Garrett Richards
Drew Smyly
Scott Kazmir

Anthony Rizzo
Sal Perez
Alex Gordon
Matt Adams (13th round)
Jorge Soler
Nelson Cruz (11th round)
Brian Dozier
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cespedes
Ryan Zimmerman

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

It's about that time marthafockers.


I need help. Too much money is on the line to finish in the bottom half like I did last year.

Five keepers off my 2014 team, but I'm only guaranteed to keep three of them.

Twelve team head to head categories (offensively I can't remember exactly, but pitching was Wins, Saves, Quality Starts, Ks, ERA and WHIP. Best teams had saves in spades but this might change with having two new teams this year)

My guys I'll have available who I'd like feedback on:

Kershaw (Would be the #1 overall pick if I kept him)
Greinke (6th round)
Garrett Richards
Drew Smyly
Scott Kazmir

Anthony Rizzo
Sal Perez
Alex Gordon
Matt Adams (13th round)
Jorge Soler
Nelson Cruz (11th round)
Brian Dozier
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cespedes
Ryan Zimmerman

I would lean towards keeping Kershaw, because who are you going to get with your first-round pick who is better? Unless you end up with a top 3 pick in round 1, you're not guaranteed to be better off.

Rizzo is a must keep, IMO. What round pick is he?

Greinke would probably be my third choice, unless you have a crazy late pick on Zimmerman or Cespedes or Dozier.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I would lean towards keeping Kershaw, because who are you going to get with your first-round pick who is better? Unless you end up with a top 3 pick in round 1, you're not guaranteed to be better off.

Rizzo is a must keep, IMO. What round pick is he?

Greinke would probably be my third choice, unless you have a crazy late pick on Zimmerman or Cespedes or Dozier.

I picked up Rizzo in FA.. which should reset his KV to the lowest round. Dozier will be a 19th round, Zimmerman a 4th rounder, Greinke a 5th.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I picked up Rizzo in FA.. which should reset his KV to the lowest round. Dozier will be a 19th round, Zimmerman a 4th rounder, Greinke a 5th.

I'd probably go Kershaw/Dozier/Rizzo, then.

That's great value at the bottom of the draft.

[Discuss Thrower]

What about the two guys who are worth keeping but won't get sniped by the two new owners..

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

What about the two guys who are worth keeping but won't get sniped by the two new owners..

Greinke and Zimmerman?

They're solid value but are not amazing value at those draft slots. Both are pretty in line with the ADP of the player.

My take on keepers is all about value. Find the keepers that give you the most surplus value and go with them.

Example:

In my psycho league (of which I'm now the commish), we get 9 keepers in a $300 auction format.

I have 6 no brainers.

Trout - $16
Harper - $13
Carlos Gonzalez - $24 (this is a big pick for me this year, BTW. Has some risk but he's falling WAY down ADPs)
Sale - $12
Price - $28
Jose Fernandez - $8

After that, I've got some great OF value and a strong C in
Revere - $8
Pollock - $5
Travis d'Arnaud - $7

We start 5 OF, so even though I'm nervous about leaving all my IF slots uncovered (and could use a Jean Seguara at $17 instead of Pollock or Revere), I'm going with the areas that give me the most surplus value.

Dozier is going to perform like a top 40-50 pick, and you're getting him somewhere in the 220s. Rizzo is going to perform like a top 30, and you're getting him somewhere in the 240-250 range.

Those are HUGE advantages for you in the rest of the draft. You've already got a big piece of what you need to win (extreme value in the late rounds).

[cookster50]

Nelly Cruz should be kept.

[Discuss Thrower]

I don't think that's good value for Cruz...

And I wanna keep Soler

[Discuss Thrower]

Also, I should point out that you have to star 5 OFs and 2 UTIL on offense...

[Hootie]

Alright, Duncan ... who is going to be the 'Wade Davis' SP turned reliever with SP eligibility of 2015 ?!

I have a league that has 7 starting pitching slots, 2 specifically SP and the rest P that counts holds with a 1450 inning pitched limit.

It's a HUGE advantage to get setup guys like Andrew Miller and Wade Davis with SP eligibility that get holds while helping you in ERA/WHIP and K's.

Wade Davis was AWESOME for me last year. I had him for the entire season and I set the league record in holds.

[Nzoner]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Alright, Duncan ... who is going to be the 'Wade Davis' SP turned reliever with SP eligibility of 2015 ?!

I have a league that has 7 starting pitching slots, 2 specifically SP and the rest P that counts holds with a 1450 inning pitched limit.

It's a HUGE advantage to get setup guys like Andrew Miller and Wade Davis with SP eligibility that get holds while helping you in ERA/WHIP and K's.

Wade Davis was AWESOME for me last year. I had him for the entire season and I set the league record in holds.

Do you play Fanduel for baseball as well?

I'm asking because I've never played fantasy baseball and left $65 in my account thinking I might experiment with it this season and wanted to know your thoughts.

[Hootie]

I sure do

it's a crapshoot

basically, it's all about the starting pitcher ... you need to land about 17-20 out of your SP (a guy that gets a lot of K's) and then litter your lineup with splits guys (everyone used to ride Tank against lefties last year etc...)

and then when games are at Coors field EVERYONE just stacks the **** out of Rockies/opponents

you have to stay on top of weather and I like to look at wind to see which parks have wind blowing out etc

it's pretty much a joke, really

people tend to end up having a lot of similarities in their lineups

rotogrinders really dumbs everything down for everyone

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Alright, Duncan ... who is going to be the 'Wade Davis' SP turned reliever with SP eligibility of 2015 ?!

I have a league that has 7 starting pitching slots, 2 specifically SP and the rest P that counts holds with a 1450 inning pitched limit.

It's a HUGE advantage to get setup guys like Andrew Miller and Wade Davis with SP eligibility that get holds while helping you in ERA/WHIP and K's.

Wade Davis was AWESOME for me last year. I had him for the entire season and I set the league record in holds.

That's a good question.

I would look at Aaron Sanchez of Toronto. There's a decent chance he is the closer in Toronto, but he should have SP eligibility in most leagues based on his role in the minors last season.

[duncan_idaho]

I just posted my keepers in my 14-team, $300 auction league (15 hitters, 9 pitchers, 10 bench). I had some tough calls and had to lean on Baseball Prospectus - Flags Fly Forever to make the final choices.

I kept:

C - Travis d'Arnaud ($7 - two-catcher league)
OF - Trout (16)
OF - Harper (13)
OF - Carlos Gonzalez (24)
OF - AJ Pollock (5)
OF - Ben Revere (8)

P - Sale (12)
P - Price (28)
P - Jose Fernandez (8)

Had some tough guys to let go... Adrian Gonzalez (38), Jean Segura (13) and Chris Owings (7) were the hardest choices. I'm going to have to be aggressive on draft day chasing infielders.

I also am planning right now to spend large on one ace type (it looks like King Felix will get released, and he's the top target). I like the idea of using some of my surplus value to stack my pitching staff. Offensively, I want to spread my cash around quite a bit. I have the star power already... just need to spread out my money and be solid in a lot of places rather than excellent in one.

I want to spend about $30 on one hitter (Pujols - Gonzalez - Cano) and then spread the rest of it around on solid but not spectacular guys.

[Discuss Thrower]

Looks... uh... Good?

Goddamn I'm so out of my league.