***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Lol I think I’ll decline trying to find that in here.

But IMO that’s where the logjam will happen. That’s the real numbers they need to be worried about.

Sure, but admissions are going to be a fair proxy, they may just not work at the same timeline.

If you're seeing 'doubling rates' that are FAR below projection on admissions, it stands to reason that you'd see similar results in ICU cases, even if they're a bit of a lagging indicator on overall admissions.

I also can't quite figure out if Cuomo is ultimately using net figures or gross figures. In other words, the daily rates since April 1 have suggested as many admissions as discharges.

But in the meantime, from April 1 to now total hospitalized has actually climbed by about 2,500. So there's a disconnect there. He may be using gross figures for discharges and net figures for admissions.

But again, it's gone up by 2,500 over a span where it was supposed to go up by 10,000. Based on a model that was updated ON April 1.

And I understand that ICU growth is what concerns you, as it should. But it's easier to pull a vent out of storage or ship it in from elsewhere (and Cuomo said yesterday morning they still have plenty that haven't been deployed) than it is to build a new field hospital. ICU utilization is important for sure, but don't sleep on positive developments in total capacity. Especially as it relates to the 'ancillary' deaths some have been concerned about - those deaths of non-COVID cases that come as a result of COVID cases overwhelming the system.

If we maintain relatively reasonable growth rates on beds, we'll also keep those figures palatable.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by F150

may have been posted, sorry if so...

Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

“Congratulations to MIGAL [The Galilee Research Institute] on this exciting breakthrough,” Akunis said. “I am confident there will be further rapid progress, enabling us to provide a needed response to the grave global COVID-19 threat,” Akunis said, referring to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.



For the past four years, a team of MIGAL scientists has been developing a vaccine against infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which causes a bronchial disease affecting poultry. The effectiveness of the vaccine has been proven in preclinical trials carried out at the Veterinary Institute.

MIGAL is located in the Galilee.

“Our basic concept was to develop the technology and not specifically a vaccine for this kind or that kind of virus,” said Dr. Chen Katz, MIGAL’s biotechnology group leader. “The scientific framework for the vaccine is based on a new protein expression vector, which forms and secretes a chimeric soluble protein that delivers the viral antigen into mucosal tissues by self-activated endocytosis, causing the body to form antibodies against the virus.”

Endocytosis is a cellular process in which substances are brought into a cell by surrounding the material with cell membrane, forming a vesicle containing the ingested material.
In preclinical trials, the team demonstrated that the oral vaccination induces high levels of specific anti-IBV antibodies, Katz said.

“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.”

But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.

“All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.”

MIGAL would be responsible for developing the new vaccine, but it would then have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials and large-scale production, Katz said.
Akunis said he has instructed his ministry’s director-general to fast-track all approval processes with the goal of bringing the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.
“Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,” MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could “achieve safety approval in 90 days,” he said.

It will be an oral vaccine, making it particularly accessible to the general public, Zigdon said.
“We are currently in intensive discussions with potential partners that can help accelerate the in-human trials phase and expedite completion of final-product development and regulatory activities,” he said.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE...vaccine-619101

Interesting

I’m skeptical but we shall see

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Masks don't do jack shit...

For preventing you from getting it? They don't. Unless it covers your entire face and I would argue even your ears.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

For preventing you from getting it? They don't. Unless it covers your entire face and I would argue even your ears.

Sure they do. Even a simple bandana can prevent droplet spread.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Nice try. Standard douchebag Hamas walk back. So, your post calling me a liar has now become a post saying that although it is entirely possible that a bad flu season can have a fatality rate in the .16% range it isn't likely.





You just can't help being a total **** can you?

You said bad flu seasons normally do. They don't unless you cook the books.

There's a reason why medical literature reports risk ratios and odds ratios with a single number first instead of just the upper bound of a confidence interval.

If your OR of contracting SARS when wearing a mask is 0.27 with a CI of 0.21-0.34, the OR is not 0.34. It's 0.27.

This is why we have biostats.

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/statu...095769601?s=21

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Sure, but admissions are going to be a fair proxy, they may just not work at the same timeline.

If you're seeing 'doubling rates' that are FAR below projection on admissions, it stands to reason that you'd see similar results in ICU cases, even if they're a bit of a lagging indicator on overall admissions.

I also can't quite figure out if Cuomo is ultimately using net figures or gross figures. In other words, the daily rates since April 1 have suggested as many admissions as discharges.

But in the meantime, from April 1 to now total hospitalized has actually climbed by about 2,500. So there's a disconnect there. He may be using gross figures for discharges and net figures for admissions.

But again, it's gone up by 2,500 over a span where it was supposed to go up by 10,000. Based on a model that was updated ON April 1.

And I understand that ICU growth is what concerns you, as it should. But it's easier to pull a vent out of storage or ship it in from elsewhere (and Cuomo said yesterday morning they still have plenty that haven't been deployed) than it is to build a new field hospital. ICU utilization is important for sure, but don't sleep on positive developments in total capacity. Especially as it relates to the 'ancillary' deaths some have been concerned about - those deaths of non-COVID cases that come as a result of COVID cases overwhelming the system.

If we maintain relatively reasonable growth rates on beds, we'll also keep those figures palatable.

Didn't Cuomo also say they had six days of vents left at their current burn rate?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

Sure they do. Even a simple bandana can prevent droplet spread.

If your bandana gets wet from your breathing and the outside of your mask gets contaminated from the virus by accidentally touching it with a dirty hand would it be possible for said virus to invade that now damp area of the mask and potentially contaminate the air your are now breathing?

I can drink a beer through a bandana if I try hard enough.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You said bad flu seasons normally do.

No I did not. Please show me that quote? I said A bad flu season, which is pretty obvious what is meant in that statement. Covid-19's under 50 figure is comparable to what is certainly possible (admitted by you) in a bad flu season like we had in 2017-2018. The context of the post was in regards to restrictions/shutdown/etc. Do you think we were on the verge of shutting down most of the US because of the flu in 2017-2018? (hint: we were not)

No, you took what you saw as an opportunity to be a piece of shit and ran with it. Unfortunately for you, my post was pretty clear and factually correct or at the very least in the reasonably possible category which is all that was necessary to get the intended point across.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Monticore

If your bandana gets wet from your breathing and the outside of your mask gets contaminated from the virus by accidentally touching it with a dirty hand would it be possible for said virus to invade that now damp area of the mask and potentially contaminate the air your are now breathing?

I can drink a beer through a bandana if I try hard enough.

Yes. That's why I said can prevent. Would you agree that you can ingest a droplet full of the virus easier without a mask?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Sure they do. Even a simple bandana can prevent droplet spread.

It's almost like you didn't read a ****ing word I said. It will help prevent you from spreading it. But if it is in the air it is not going to prevent you from getting it unless your eyes are covered. It's almost like I said that and you just wanted to argue.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Yes it is true and it's already been posted in this thread. .16%

Ask and you shall receive

Originally Posted by AustinChief

No I did not. Please show me that quote? I said A bad flu season, which is pretty obvious what is meant in that statement. Covid-19's under 50 figure is comparable to what is certainly possible (admitted by you) in a bad flu season like we had in 2017-2018. The context of the post was in regards to restrictions/shutdown/etc. Do you think we were on the verge of shutting down most of the US because of the flu in 2017-2018? (hint: we were not)

No, you took what you saw as an opportunity to be a piece of shit and ran with it. Unfortunately for you, my post was pretty clear and factually correct or at the very least in the reasonably possible category which is all that was necessary to get the intended point across.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html

So, the death rate among people under 40 is the same as the flu.

That's what you said. You didn't say "bad flu season"

If you had said the CFR for cases under 40 is similar to the overall CFR of very bad flu season, you wouldn't have had so many people disagreeing.

Shortly afterwards you changed that age to 50, and specified "bad flu season"

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It's almost like you didn't read a ****ing word I said. It will help prevent you from spreading it. But if it is in the air it is not going to prevent you from getting it unless your eyes are covered. It's almost like I said that and you just wanted to argue.

Sure I did. You originally said:

Masks don't do jack shit. Stop listening to the ****ing media.

Would you agree that you can ingest a droplet full of the virus easier without a mask? I'm well-aware that mouth and nose masks don't do anything to prevent transmission via the eyes.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Didn't Cuomo also say they had six days of vents left at their current burn rate?

Hadn't heard that.

But haven't we also heard that NYC's peak was supposed to be in 6 or 7 days? IMHE model says 6. If you're concerned about resource scarcity and you manage to get that close...I'd say things worked out pretty nicely.

The point here isn't to clear these bars with room to spare. It's ideally to clear them WITHOUT it. And obviously there's a hope you can provide some spare materials in the interim.