***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[eDave]

Originally Posted by 007

I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?

Had a death in the family the other day. Immediate family only. 8 total. Kansas.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Originally Posted by eDave

Had a death in the family the other day. Immediate family only. 8 total. Kansas.

Sorry to hear that Dave.
Prayers to the family

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

You don't need to ramp up azithromycin production by much and hydroxychloroquine production is already being ramped up as we speak.

Right now there is PLENTY in the system that could be used to treat ALL current severe/critical cases in the USA and not even blink. (you may see regional shortages in places like NY but that is a matter of shifting resources, we are talking HOURS not even days)

I honestly hope you're right. Hopefully we'll see that soon.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

As I understand it, the shutdown has two goals.

1. In the short term, we don't want a flood of patients in hospitals that will overwhelm the system and cause a number of preventable deaths.

2. It may possibly prevent some people from getting the illness, though my perception is that there's an air of inevitability here, that it won't prevent illness but rather will spread out the impact.

So let's ignore #2 and concentrate on #1.

There are two ways to keep the system from being overwhelmed. You can have fewer patients coming (via the shutdown) or you can have patients get cured and leave faster (via medication and treatment), or hopefully both. So you just have to run the numbers and if you have both weapons there'll be a spot where you no longer need the shutdown.

In fact, if the medication is extremely effective, you could conceivably not need the shutdown at all.

One wildcard, though, is that we're assuming at this point that the shutdown will keep the system from being overwhelmed, and we don't know if that's true. It's possible that the shutdown and a magic medication would still not be sufficient to keep the system from getting overwhelmed. But regardless, we know that the world will be better with both.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Guys. We need to talk about this Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin thing. It is out of hand. It all stems from this study that came out today. The study design: Comparative viral eradication on day 6 between HCQ, HCQ + Azithro, and control (not treated) COVID-19 patients. pic.twitter.com/qFZXdTxTwI

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

So to recap:
1) This study had a lower threshold for "negative" than most and used as less sensitive swab sample
2) There were a decent number (23%) of total HCQ patients who were not eligible for analysis, but at least five could be considered failures.

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

2a) These failures could lessen the spread between HCQ and control
2b) These failures would impact monotherapy vs combination therapy (unclear how as they are not described)
3) When correcting for burden of disease/viral load, HCQ and HCQ + AZ look extremely similar

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

Am I supposed to make heads or tales of that?
Is it a good or bad thing?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Am I supposed to make heads or tales of that?
Is it a good or bad thing?

Inconclusive?

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

As I understand it, the shutdown has two goals.

1. In the short term, we don't want a flood of patients in hospitals that will overwhelm the system and cause a number of preventable deaths.

2. It may possibly prevent some people from getting the illness, though my perception is that there's an air of inevitability here, that it won't prevent illness but rather will spread out the impact.

So let's ignore #2 and concentrate on #1.

There are two ways to keep the system from being overwhelmed. You can have fewer patients coming (via the shutdown) or you can have patients get cured and leave faster (via medication and treatment), or hopefully both. So you just have to run the numbers and if you have both weapons there'll be a spot where you no longer need the shutdown.

In fact, if the medication is extremely effective, you could conceivably not need the shutdown at all.

One wildcard, though, is that we're assuming at this point that the shutdown will keep the system from being overwhelmed, and we don't know if that's true. It's possible that the shutdown and a magic medication would still not be sufficient to keep the system from getting overwhelmed. But regardless, we know that the world will be better with both.

Well, it will be until I run out of SPAM® Brand Luncheon Meat.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Am I supposed to make heads or tales of that?
Is it a good or bad thing?

At this point I can just look at the poster and tell you if its a positive or negative post.

I can't imagine viewing life through the lens of OH and Discuss...JFC

[Perspicacity]

793 Deaths in just a day is a lot of people. I don't know how the Italy is countering the virus, but I can really tell the China did a better job.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Inconclusive?

i have no idea what all that tweet text meant?

But I like Austins thinking. I understand what he's laying down.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by Perspicacity

793 Deaths in just a day is a lot of people. I don't know how the Italy is countering the virus, but I can really tell the China did a better job.

The death rate in Italy is crazy. It's double whatever China had.

Luckily so far with USA we're doing good on that death rate part.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Perspicacity

793 Deaths in just a day is a lot of people. I don't know how the Italy is countering the virus, but I can really tell the China did a better job.

The Chinese probably stashed a lot of deaths under categories that weren't COVID

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by Perspicacity

793 Deaths in just a day is a lot of people. I don't know how the Italy is countering the virus, but I can really tell the China did a better job.

China lies and cant be trusted.
**** them. They need to pay dearly for this shit. Every 4 years or so. Another killer bat rat virus comes from them commie bat rat eating bastards..

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by 007

I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?

Funerals are a hard choice. But you don't really want a funeral to lead to more funerals.

Many if not most of the mourners I've ever seen at funerals would be in the high risk category.

If I was forced to make the choice I suppose I would consider cremation and then having a service whenever it becomes reasonably safe.

Not ideal but again bleak choices.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

China lies and cant be trusted.
**** them. They need to pay dearly for this shit. Every 4 years or so. Another killer bat rat virus comes from them commie bat rat eating bastards..

Holy shit me and Livesteam agree on something.