If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30…

[staylor26]

How would you feel about that?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Really?!? Jameson had almost 1600 yards in the sec and 15 tds. He was dominant! Are you kidding me? I can understand questioning his injury but saying he’s not talented bc Ohio state didn’t keep him is ridiculous.

He couldn’t beat out Wilson or Olave. If he’s some amazing talent…he would have had more than 100+ yards in either of his first two years.

[Chris Meck]

Here's the thing, and I think a lot of people that don't pay a ton of attention pre draft every year don't get (in my opinion).

WR's aren't like franchise QB's, DE's, or LT's. Those guys you pretty much have to get in the first round with very rare exceptions, and generally high in the first. It's just rare to get an elite talent at those spots that falls. If they do, it's some character concern or something. (like Sam Williams, ahem).

Lots of top flight WR's are not former first rounders. Davante Adams? 2nd round, pick #53. Cooper Kupp? 3rd round #69. Deebo Samuel? 2nd round #36. Stephon Diggs was a fifth rounder! Like Tyreek.

It's not like taking a franchise QB. Half of this 'top tier' will wash out; and lots of these guys people want to say are a 'big drop off' will be much better NFL players.

And some of these guys that are too small, and too slow will be really good. I still wouldn't take Dotson in the first!

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

He couldn’t beat out Wilson or Olave. If he’s some amazing talent…he would have had more than 100+ yards in either of his first two years.

I know this is going to get people saying I'm nuts, but-

I don't see much difference in Jameson Williams and Pickens. I just don't.

I like the same things about both, and I have similar concerns injury-wise about both. Georgia WR's don't tend to be as NFL ready, but that's really not fair to say without knowing the individual.

I would take either at #29 if I really wanted them but I don't think I'd trade up for Williams when I can probably nab Pickens at #50. possibly later.

I like Pierce, and I like Watson. I'm warming up to Burks some.

I think we can get 'our guy' anywhere from 29 to the end of the second round, just depends who they want.

[kcbubb]

This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.

Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Lots of top flight WR's are not former first rounders. Davante Adams? 2nd round, pick #53. Cooper Kupp? 3rd round #69. Deebo Samuel? 2nd round #36. Stephon Diggs was a fifth rounder! Like Tyreek.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I know this is going to get people saying I'm nuts, but-

I don't see much difference in Jameson Williams and Pickens. I just don't.

I like the same things about both, and I have similar concerns injury-wise about both. Georgia WR's don't tend to be as NFL ready, but that's really not fair to say without knowing the individual.

I would take either at #29 if I really wanted them but I don't think I'd trade up for Williams when I can probably nab Pickens at #50. possibly later.

I like Pierce, and I like Watson. I'm warming up to Burks some.

I think we can get 'our guy' anywhere from 29 to the end of the second round, just depends who they want.

I think the one thing you're probably not getting from Williams onwards is burning speed. I'm really 50-50 on it, I'm coming round to the idea of sitting put, getting the guy that best fits as you say, and then maybe double-dipping in the 2nd. But I don't think you can wait for Pickens that long - if he's the guy it has to be at 30.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.

Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.

It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.

I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.

[Chris Meck]

I agree with Crow.

And as for the speed being gone after the first, I haven't seen Pierce or Watson mocked all that often before the 2nd, and nobody's faster than those two guys.

I'm for taking at least one WR in this draft, and probably double dipping, and probably doing THAT early, in those first two rounds.

If we took two DL and two WR in the first four picks I'd be thrilled.

But after the last draft, I'm not going to complain until I see the product on the field.

[The Franchise]

Trading up for Williams would be a complete waste of resources.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Trading up for Williams would be a complete waste of resources.

Yeah, I mean-like I've said, if they do it I would be surprised. It doesn't seem prudent, and the Hill trade was all about being prudent, right?

I mean you could get a Pierce/Watson/Dotson/whoever you like plus a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas/whoever you like or you could trade up to get Williams who won't be much help in 2022.

It just doesn't seem prudent.

[duncan_idaho]

I know I said Olave is the guy that I would trade up for in another thread, but I have a hard time finding something I don't like about Watson.

For a guy who is a legitimate big and physical receiver to have the speed, quick twitch, and explosiveness he does is just really rare.

And he's not just a physical specimen. He runs good routes (because of that rare quickness), and he's physical.

He can do all the "big-guy receiver" things (high-point, back shoulder, wall off on slants/over the middle). But he can do "normal-guy receiver" things, too (double moves, multiple release, set up routes with foot work). And he has that rare explosiveness that will let him be a big-play threat, too.

If they take him with 29 or 30, I won't be surprised or complain. They could even move up a bit to nab him and I wouldn't be upset about it.

[kcbubb]

I could be wrong. We will see. I posted a long reasoning on why I think it’s worth it at the wr position in the mega thread. I’ll sum it up, over 95% of wrs drafted don’t become a wr2 or better in the first year. So, if you love a guy and he’s a fit and been developed by the best college for creating great wrs in the nfl recently, go get him. He also had almost 1600 yards and 15 tds in an injury shortened year in the sec. I believe Jameson’s skill set and preparation makes him a success and that higher probability is worth flipping a 3rd, 4th and 4th next year to move up 10 spots to get him if he’s there.

Originally Posted by kccrow

It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.

I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Yeah, I mean-like I've said, if they do it I would be surprised. It doesn't seem prudent, and the Hill trade was all about being prudent, right?

I mean you could get a Pierce/Watson/Dotson/whoever you like plus a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas/whoever you like or you could trade up to get Williams who won't be much help in 2022.

It just doesn't seem prudent.

Exactly.

[kcbubb]

I like Watson’s athletic ability a lot also. His ability & testing numbers does show up on tape. Can he beat press from an nfl corner? Idk? Questions like that are why I like jameson. But I love Watson’s ceiling. I like him better than Dotson for sure.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I know I said Olave is the guy that I would trade up for in another thread, but I have a hard time finding something I don't like about Watson.

For a guy who is a legitimate big and physical receiver to have the speed, quick twitch, and explosiveness he does is just really rare.

And he's not just a physical specimen. He runs good routes (because of that rare quickness), and he's physical.

He can do all the "big-guy receiver" things (high-point, back shoulder, wall off on slants/over the middle). But he can do "normal-guy receiver" things, too (double moves, multiple release, set up routes with foot work). And he has that rare explosiveness that will let him be a big-play threat, too.

If they take him with 29 or 30, I won't be surprised or complain. They could even move up a bit to nab him and I wouldn't be upset about it.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

I could be wrong. We will see. I posted a long reasoning on why I think it’s worth it at the wr position in the mega thread. I’ll sum it up, if you and say that over 95% of wrs drafted don’t become a wr2 or better in the first year. So, if you love a guy and he’s a fit and been developed by the best college for creating great wrs in the nfl recently, go get him. He also had almost 1600 yards and 15 tds in an injury shortened year in the sec. I believe Jameson’s skill set and preparation makes him a success and that higher probability is worth flipping a 3rd, 4th and 4th next year to move up 10 spots to get him if he’s there.

well, here's the thing though-he's not likely to be 100% physically in enough time for him to put up WR2 numbers under any circumstances in 2022. Not in this offense. Which negates the whole argument.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

well, here's the thing though-he's not likely to be 100% physically in enough time for him to put up WR2 numbers under any circumstances in 2022. Not in this offense. Which negates the whole argument.

Exactly.

When I objected to taking Williams, I was met with "it's a 10-month recovery that could probably be done in 8".

That's great until you consider that 8 months from now is the END OF NOVEMBER.

If you like the 5th year option and think you can redshirt him for a year, take him at 29.

Trading up should be absolutely off the board.