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Old 01-27-2022, 02:36 AM  
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Should the Bills have onside kicked to start OT?
I want to have a serious discussion about whether the Bills should have onside kicked it (or the Chiefs should have in 2018).

According to this, receiving counts as "an opportunity to possess the ball" even if you never touch it:

Quote:
... only a Field Goal is required to win the game. This is because it is deemed that the receiving team in both instances has had their opportunity to possess the ball.

From the 2019 NFL Rulebook: Rule 16 - Section 1 - Article 3

Article 3. Extra Period

[...]

(e) The opportunity to possess applies only during kicking plays. A kickoff is the opportunity to possess for the receiving team. If the kicking team legally recovers the kick, the receiving team is considered to have had its opportunity. A punt or field goal attempt that crosses the line of scrimmage and is muffed by the receiving team is considered to be an opportunity to possess for the receiving team. Normal touching rules by the kicking team apply.
So if Buffalo onside kicked it and made it, they could win with a field goal. If they don't make it, it's like a normal kick and the Chiefs still need a TD to win outright.

The other arguments for onside kicking are that your defense is gassed and Mahomes will probably get into field goal range at least. So either way you need your defense to make a stand and hold to a field goal. But with the onside kick they'd be less tired. Of course it's also possible the Bills would stop Mahomes in Chiefs territory after a normal kickoff. But we all know that isn't happening for Mahomes or Allen.

Looks like surprise onside kick has about 10-18% chance to succeed based on which stats you look at. Although would it be a total surprise in this case? Maybe. I feel like since no team has ever done this afaik, it would be a surprise at least the first time.

I'd love to see the math if you think you have a 15% chance of recovery. Because kicking off feels like an 80% chance of eventually giving up a game-ending TD in this particular game - for either team.

Maybe you try an onside kick where you kick it really hard at one of the guys on the front line. If you miss it's basically a squib kick.
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Old 01-27-2022, 02:38 AM   #2
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Old 01-27-2022, 02:41 AM
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Old 01-27-2022, 02:42 AM   #3
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Absolutely yes. I also thought we should have in 2018. They were never going to stop Mahomes.
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Old 01-27-2022, 02:43 AM   #4
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Absolutely yes. I also thought we should have in 2018. They were never going to stop Mahomes.
Agreed.
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Old 01-27-2022, 03:09 AM   #5
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these threads are gettting out of control . .move on..

enjoy the amazing victory..

stop giving this dumb shit attention . .

the next thread coming: "Should the NFL change game length to 59 minutes and 47 seconds?"
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Old 01-27-2022, 03:21 AM   #6
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Yeah why would we want to discuss football strategy on a Chiefs forum? o_O
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Old 01-27-2022, 04:18 AM   #7
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They had us in 3rd and long on the first series when kelce caught the first. I mean they almost made a stop.
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Old 01-27-2022, 04:19 AM   #8
DTVietnam DTVietnam is offline
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Yeah why would we want to discuss football strategy on a Chiefs forum? o_O
didnt mean to attack your thread in particular...just seeing it all of twitter and different forums. .

everyone trying to take shine away from the win . .

like 2nd guessing the coaches..the rules..

the reason they lost is cause we are a better team period. .

it takes away from the victory. . when people think if this or that ...we woulda...we coulda. .


the narrative from this game should be Mahomes is God, but it seems to be "they shoulda squib kicked, Josh allen didnt get a chance etc etc. . "


you could see from drive one..Mahomes was not going to lose that game. .

I knew we had it from the diving TD run

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Old 01-27-2022, 04:20 AM   #9
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Old 01-27-2022, 07:03 AM   #10
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Old 01-27-2022, 07:17 AM   #11
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**** the Buffalo Bills. It's Thursday. The game was Sunday. I'm ****ing tired of these questions.

Let the Bills ask these questions. It's not like they have anything better to do.

Also, I already argued this point in one of the zillions of overtime rules discussion threads. Nobody cared about it then, and I doubt they do now
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Old 01-27-2022, 08:36 AM   #12
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They had us in 3rd and long on the first series when kelce caught the first. I mean they almost made a stop.
This. It’s not like their defense never got close like ours did in 2018. They had a shot.
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Old 01-27-2022, 08:37 AM   #13
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Going to be a day really soon where a coach actually tries this.
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Old 01-27-2022, 08:41 AM   #14
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You morons realize a TD on the opening drive is never a given right? Chiefs still had to earn it and were close to being stopped.
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Old 01-27-2022, 08:43 AM   #15
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Absolutely yes. I also thought we should have in 2018. They were never going to stop Mahomes.
I agree about 2018. We had one of the worst defenses in the league.

At least the Bills had the number 1 ranked defense though. I don’t think there was any chance of them getting a stop, but that decision would’ve been second guessed immediately if it didn’t work.

At the end of the day though, it couldn’t have been any worse.
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