***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?

No each unit has its own duct system. Depending on the set up they might and emphasize might share pipe that would have hot and cold water running through them from boilers and chillers.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)

Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.

IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%

These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.

Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.

I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?

No. There's no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is airborne.

[2112]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?

Most people in nyc commute in the subway (which is still open) that’s the quickest way to spread it. And they’re not cleaning the trains.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If you look at confirmed cases from the 22nd (33,592) and consider that only 10% of the cases are discovered, the calculation yields a CRF of 0.006 (0.6%), which I consider my (NOT AN EXPERT) lower bound of the CFR.

That's reasonable.

Something else that gets often overlooked is that there is a certain percentage of the population that is immune either through natural immunity or recovery.

If that percentage is .001% then it doesn't matter, but given that the disease has run wild for quite awhile, that figure could be significantly higher. We have absolutely no clue.

We need to focus on serology testing if we want to truly get ahead of things. That should have been the focus from the start.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.

With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.

And we still lost 16,000 people. Sorry, that's H1N1 I am thinking of....

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.

One theory is that it down-mutated to a less fatal form.. which is entirely possible that we could see the same thing happen here.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?

The recommendation is to not recirculate air at the present time. Once the air is collected to the return duct, it should be vented to the outside and fresh air brought in. I have no idea whether apartment superintendents are following this recommendation.

https://www.rehva.eu/fileadmin/user_...-17_final2.pdf

[O.city]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

One theory is that it down-mutated to a less fatal form.. which is entirely possible that we could see the same thing happen here.

Viruses never mutate to more virulent forms. It would be to their detriment.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.

Ah, I see. But it still had an R0 of 2 to 3.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That's reasonable.

Something else that gets often overlooked is that there is a certain percentage of the population that is immune either through natural immunity or recovery.

If that percentage is .001% then it doesn't matter, but given that the disease has run wild for quite awhile, that figure could be significantly higher. We have absolutely no clue.

We need to focus on serology testing if we want to truly get ahead of things. That should have been the focus from the start.

I read somewhere in this thread that they were starting that in Miami. I agree that it would shed a ton of light on the course of the disease and when we could start returning to normal.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ah, I see. But it still had an R0 of 2 to 3.

That wasn't as big of a deal because you knew who was sick and they couldn't spread it until they were actually sick.

This is where SARS COV 2 is different.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I read somewhere in this thread that they were starting that in Miami. I agree that it would shed a ton of light on the course of the disease and when we could start returning to normal.

They're doing a whole town in Colorado last I read.

I said it a few days ago but the COVID 19 reddit page is great for info.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Good interview with Bill Gates about the CoronaVirus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNLiUN0l7ws