Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S - Page 3

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

**The Franchise** · 08-20-2018, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bewbies

I think Alex Smith is a great guy. Fantastic actually. Definitely the kind of man you want leading your team.

And definitely not the kind of QB you want leading your team. If you want to win big anyway.

Alex Smith is the backup QB you want.

Molitoth · 08-20-2018, 01:49 PM

Oh yes I will really miss watching captain checkdown lead us to all of those playoff wins.

O.city · 08-20-2018, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I still think that with the talent on this team they aren't burning a year just to burn it.

I think they expect to win now.

I think they probably think they'll be competitive

**Rain Man** · 08-20-2018, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pest

Alex Smith is the backup QB you want.

That's spot on.

Bewbies · 08-20-2018, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pest

Alex Smith is the backup QB you want.

I'd certainly take him at backup QB over Keesum.

Eleazar · 08-20-2018, 02:24 PM

He's not wrong

Best22 · 08-20-2018, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eleazar

He's not wrong

Will never miss Alex Smith

"Oh, well, Alex Smith is good enough for little ol Kansas City. He's not embarrassingly bad, but he's also not good enough to ever lead your team to greatness. But Kansas City is a boring Midwest town, so you can imagine that KC fans don't want anything more. They only care about being "respectable" not great. So I feel Alex was perfect for little ol Kansas City."

**** that. Alex can enjoy his $, while us fans can enjoy a team that actually has a chance

**Rausch** · 08-20-2018, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

Will never miss Alex Smith

"Oh, well, Alex Smith is good enough for little ol Kansas City. He's not embarrassingly bad, but he's also not good enough to ever lead your team to greatness. But Kansas City is a boring Midwest town, so you can imagine that KC fans don't want anything more. They only care about being "respectable" not great. So I feel Alex was perfect for little ol Kansas City."

**** that. Alex can enjoy his $, while us fans can enjoy a team that actually has a chance

This.

And we're backed up by a cannon with confidence the team can believe in.

We don't "believe" we can win with 30 seconds left - we KNOW we can win with 30 seconds left now...

**DaFace** · 08-20-2018, 02:53 PM

If there's a season where I'd be perfectly OK with a 6-8/7-9ish kind of season, this is it. I HOPE we can be great, but as long as Pat shows good growth, I'm OK with it.

Best22 · 08-20-2018, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

If there's a season where I'd be perfectly OK with a 6-8/7-9ish kind of season, this is it. I HOPE we can be great, but as long as Pat shows good growth, I'm OK with it.

The AFC may be real weak this year. 9-7 may get he 6th seed, and 8-8 may even get the division title.

And all it takes is a little magic and you have a playoff win. In all our history, KC has had a lucky break in the playoffs once (if you can even call it that, I consider blocked punts more skill than luck) and that was when Montana was our QB

Pablo · 08-20-2018, 03:09 PM

I'll miss shitting on Smiff, but that's about it. And I can still do that without having to watch him QB my team!

**Rausch** · 08-20-2018, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pablo

I'll miss shitting on Smiff, but that's about it. And I can still do that without having to watch him QB my team!

And we no longer have to suffer through a part of our fanbase cheering for a loss...

keg in kc · 08-20-2018, 03:14 PM

Should've kept Alex another year, so we could cap at 10 wins again, lose another wildcard game and put Mahomes' on-field development another year behind.

Halfcan · 08-20-2018, 03:18 PM

Terrible article from an Alex Ballwasher.

Why Not? · 08-20-2018, 03:24 PM

If the Chiefs back slide this year, it won't be because of Pat(I certainly expect some growing pains)it will be because the d has many questions and the schedule is brutal, a fact that I'm pretty sure is lost on the guys that are predicting 11-5/12-4

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
Posts: 69,591

08-20-2018, 01:49 PM	#32
Molitoth Mahomes Fanboi Join Date: Apr 2004 Casino cash: $2994969	Oh yes I will really miss watching captain checkdown lead us to all of those playoff wins.
Posts: 19,473

08-20-2018, 02:24 PM	#36
Eleazar Beyond the Rapids Join Date: May 2003 Location: Langley, VA Casino cash: $-370000	He's not wrong
Posts: 80,659

08-20-2018, 02:53 PM	#39
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $2056899	If there's a season where I'd be perfectly OK with a 6-8/7-9ish kind of season, this is it. I HOPE we can be great, but as long as Pat shows good growth, I'm OK with it.
Posts: 51,749

08-20-2018, 03:09 PM	#41
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $2049356	I'll miss shitting on Smiff, but that's about it. And I can still do that without having to watch him QB my team!
Posts: 40,245

08-20-2018, 03:14 PM	#43
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	Should've kept Alex another year, so we could cap at 10 wins again, lose another wildcard game and put Mahomes' on-field development another year behind.
Posts: 58,682	2 0

08-20-2018, 03:18 PM	#44
Halfcan In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7327995	Terrible article from an Alex Ballwasher.
Posts: 43,200

08-20-2018, 03:24 PM	#45
Why Not? In Search of a Life Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Kansas Casino cash: $3188994	If the Chiefs back slide this year, it won't be because of Pat(I certainly expect some growing pains)it will be because the d has many questions and the schedule is brutal, a fact that I'm pretty sure is lost on the guys that are predicting 11-5/12-4
Posts: 21,684