Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S - Page 4

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

WhiteWhale · 08-20-2018, 03:28 PM

I see the title of this thread and all I see is "Miss Alex".

All other words and letters become like egyptian hieroglyphics with that as it's centerpiece.

Trust me, if I use the phrase "Miss Alex", it will not be in the context this article speculates.

BlackHelicopters · 08-20-2018, 04:02 PM

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-20-2018, 04:10 PM

gambling is an extremely short term thing...

yes, I mean doing this move may cost us a game or two THIS year but ALex won 1 playoff game in 5 years here. I think we can do better over the next 5. Ok so we may not make the playoffs this season.

EVERYONE here but the most idiotic alex fans are willing to go through those growing pains this season. I am ready. Bring it.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-20-2018, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Should've kept Alex another year, so we could cap at 10 wins again, lose another wildcard game and put Mahomes' on-field development another year behind.

yes and not be able to TRADE him. we couldve just cut him after this season , paid him a lot of coin this season, and got nothing in return or of trade value

LOL

Coogs · 08-20-2018, 05:06 PM

I really don't think the offensive floor can be much lower with Mahomes than what we saw in that 1-5 stretch mid-season last year. JMO.

Frazod · 08-20-2018, 05:12 PM

Alice Smith? Never heard of her.

CoMoChief · 08-20-2018, 05:22 PM

GET THIS GOD DAMN MOTHER****IN SHIT OFF THE FRONT PAGE, NOW!!!!!

please....thank ya.

**Easy 6** · 08-20-2018, 05:37 PM

As others have said, I could actually live with 8-8 this year... dont expect it at all, but could live with it

If loving Pat Mahomes is wrong, I dont wanna be right!

BleedingRed · 08-20-2018, 05:48 PM

Y'all are baby back bitches....

This team is going 11-5 or 13-3

Why Not? · 08-20-2018, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Y'all are baby back bitches....

This team is going 11-5 or 13-3

I will happily bend the knee if you're correct

Reerun_KC · 08-20-2018, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

And we no longer have to suffer through a part of our fanbase cheering for a loss...

Or the part washing his ballz with excuses every single day....

Discuss Thrower · 08-20-2018, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Should've kept Alex another year, so we could cap at 10 wins again, lose another wildcard game and put Mahomes' on-field development another year behind.

A nonzero amount of fans would tout four straight seasons of double digit wins and a 1-4 playoff record as the high water mark for Chiefs football.

And for that, I am sad.

**RealSNR** · 08-20-2018, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eleazar

He's not wrong

If you're a short-sighted reerun with absolutely no patience or understanding of the big picture, then yeah, I guess we'll miss Alex Smith.

OUR 10-6 SEASON IS IN JEOPARDY IF MAHOMES THROWS THOZE PICKZ!!!!!!!1111 OHHHHHHH THE HUGE MANATEE!~!!!!

JakeF · 08-20-2018, 07:42 PM

I wish there was a rule for KC fans, no more talking about Alex Smith good or bad.

So tiring.

carcosa · 08-20-2018, 07:45 PM

I hope the guy who wrote this chokes on a turd and dies and goes to HELL

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
Posts: 69,591

08-20-2018, 03:28 PM	#46
WhiteWhale Bring it on Ahab! Join Date: May 2011 Location: Doo-Dah Casino cash: $10015152	I see the title of this thread and all I see is "Miss Alex". All other words and letters become like egyptian hieroglyphics with that as it's centerpiece. Trust me, if I use the phrase "Miss Alex", it will not be in the context this article speculates.
Posts: 14,861

08-20-2018, 04:02 PM	#47
BlackHelicopters Spiraling down the Drain Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $2720588	3-13 __________________ "We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family." "Fredo. You are my brother, and I love you. But never take sides against the Family again. Ever." 2019 Adopt a Chief - Travis Kelce #87
Posts: 31,663

08-20-2018, 04:10 PM	#48
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $2957556	gambling is an extremely short term thing... yes, I mean doing this move may cost us a game or two THIS year but ALex won 1 playoff game in 5 years here. I think we can do better over the next 5. Ok so we may not make the playoffs this season. EVERYONE here but the most idiotic alex fans are willing to go through those growing pains this season. I am ready. Bring it. __________________ ---- 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
Posts: 44,482

08-20-2018, 05:06 PM	#50
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $1614349	I really don't think the offensive floor can be much lower with Mahomes than what we saw in that 1-5 stretch mid-season last year. JMO.
Posts: 21,609

08-20-2018, 05:12 PM	#51
Frazod WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $3135085	Alice Smith? Never heard of her.
Posts: 119,484

08-20-2018, 05:22 PM	#52
CoMoChief Mahomes Dynasty Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $8052254	GET THIS GOD DAMN MOTHER****IN SHIT OFF THE FRONT PAGE, NOW!!!!! please....thank ya. __________________
Posts: 39,156

08-20-2018, 05:37 PM	#53
Easy 6 pie is never free Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat Casino cash: $3737775	As others have said, I could actually live with 8-8 this year... dont expect it at all, but could live with it If loving Pat Mahomes is wrong, I dont wanna be right!
Posts: 91,669

08-20-2018, 07:42 PM	#59
JakeF MVP Join Date: May 2017 Casino cash: $9990400	I wish there was a rule for KC fans, no more talking about Alex Smith good or bad. So tiring.
Posts: 10,605

08-20-2018, 07:45 PM	#60
carcosa Thank you Join Date: May 2014 Casino cash: $2833695	I hope the guy who wrote this chokes on a turd and dies and goes to HELL
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