Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S - Page 5

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

CrowbarMan · 08-20-2018, 07:54 PM

This isn't about Alex, except to say that the defense and offensive line problems remain this year. And will most certainly come out as excuses as to why we lose this year with a new qb who will will certain be better in a few years than he is today.

**Rain Man** · 08-20-2018, 08:16 PM

I will always remember where I was when Patrick Mahomes II launched the 69 yard pass to Tyreek.

mr. tegu · 08-20-2018, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I will always remember where I was when Patrick Mahomes II launched the 69 yard pass to Tyreek.

How will you distinguish this one from all the rest of similar or dare I say more awesomeness plays that we will see this season?

Dayze · 08-20-2018, 09:26 PM

I’ll always miss those 10 minute drives in the 4th qtr, down by two scores.

smithandrew051 · 08-20-2018, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dayze

I’ll always miss those 10 minute drives, down by two scores.

Especially when we have to use all of our timeouts on the drive and score just before the 2 minute warning, which leaves us a chance to get the ball back with 15 seconds on the clock after a failed onside kick. Good times.

Simply Red · 08-20-2018, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

If there's a season where I'd be perfectly OK with a 6-8/7-9ish kind of season, this is it. I HOPE we can be great, but as long as Pat shows good growth, I'm OK with it.

good post bud.

NJChiefsFan · 08-20-2018, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

If there's a season where I'd be perfectly OK with a 6-8/7-9ish kind of season, this is it. I HOPE we can be great, but as long as Pat shows good growth, I'm OK with it.

Personally I'd feel like we gave up too early if we settled for 6-8.

BlackOp · 08-20-2018, 11:52 PM

I guess that Mahomes has led scoring drives in the final 2 minutes/before half in 3 out of the 3 opportunities he's recently had inst worth mentioning. Twice against Denver and the bomb last week.

Smith almost never came through in those situations...

I can also guarantee that Mahomes wont usher in 2 of the 5 biggest postseason collapses in history...in only 5 years.

PM is like Favre...you're never out of a game.

Rasputin · 08-21-2018, 02:34 AM

Alex Smith is electric said no one ever.

We won't miss the 12 season polished turd. That's all Alex Smith was last year a polished turd.

penchief · 08-21-2018, 05:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan

Personally I'd feel like we gave up too early if we settled for 6-8.

You can't give up too early on a formula that isn't going to work. The pre-Mahomes chiefs realized their ceiling. It was time to regenerate.

Eleazar · 08-21-2018, 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR

If you're a short-sighted reerun with absolutely no patience or understanding of the big picture, then yeah, I guess we'll miss Alex Smith.

OUR 10-6 SEASON IS IN JEOPARDY IF MAHOMES THROWS THOZE PICKZ!!!!!!!1111 OHHHHHHH THE HUGE MANATEE!~!!!!

Did you read the article? It is from SI Gambling and is intended to give bettors a preview of the team's 'total wins' potential. It describes how the team's fortunes have mostly hung for several years on turnover differential, and since they've probably gotten worse on both the giveaway and takeaway side of things this offseason, that will probably translate to fewer wins. It's got nothing to do with anyone sentimentally missing Alex Smith.

KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN · 08-21-2018, 07:46 AM

The first time that Pat throws a hail Mary into the endzone he will have eclipsed Alex's total attempted. Yeah we'll really miss him.

**Bearcat** · 08-21-2018, 08:25 AM

RECIPE FOR DISASTER

ModSocks · 08-21-2018, 09:45 AM

The fans won't miss Alex Smith. But he has some valid points about the way this team operated and won under Alex, and how it will look quite a bit different under Mahomes.

King_Chief_Fan · 08-21-2018, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I will always remember where I was when Patrick Mahomes II launched the 69 yard pass to Tyreek.

Tyreek made Mahomes look good there.
Circle around the defense and catch.
No one else on the team makes that catch.
I will give PM credit to throw one to a guy he knows can make the catch

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
Posts: 69,591

08-20-2018, 07:54 PM	#61
CrowbarMan Starter Join Date: Nov 2016 Casino cash: $10000500	This isn't about Alex, except to say that the defense and offensive line problems remain this year. And will most certainly come out as excuses as to why we lose this year with a new qb who will will certain be better in a few years than he is today. Last edited by CrowbarMan; 08-20-2018 at 08:01 PM..
Posts: 244

08-20-2018, 08:16 PM	#62
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3338491 VARSITY	I will always remember where I was when Patrick Mahomes II launched the 69 yard pass to Tyreek. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,346

08-20-2018, 09:26 PM	#64
Dayze Resident Glue Sniffer Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $5199358	I’ll always miss those 10 minute drives in the 4th qtr, down by two scores. __________________ Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial. RIP & Godspeed: Saccoppo Lonewolf Ed Fire Me Boy Last edited by Dayze; 08-21-2018 at 09:58 AM..
Posts: 37,360

08-20-2018, 11:52 PM	#68
BlackOp MVP Join Date: Oct 2012 Casino cash: $5875267	I guess that Mahomes has led scoring drives in the final 2 minutes/before half in 3 out of the 3 opportunities he's recently had inst worth mentioning. Twice against Denver and the bomb last week. Smith almost never came through in those situations... I can also guarantee that Mahomes wont usher in 2 of the 5 biggest postseason collapses in history...in only 5 years. PM is like Favre...you're never out of a game.
Posts: 17,754

08-21-2018, 02:34 AM	#69
Rasputin Tip of the hat LIV Champs Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: ks Casino cash: $3495421	Alex Smith is electric said no one ever. We won't miss the 12 season polished turd. That's all Alex Smith was last year a polished turd.
Posts: 54,962

08-21-2018, 07:46 AM	#72
KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN Starter Join Date: Jan 2009 Casino cash: $9905574	The first time that Pat throws a hail Mary into the endzone he will have eclipsed Alex's total attempted. Yeah we'll really miss him.
Posts: 862

08-21-2018, 08:25 AM	#73
Bearcat Would an idiot do that? Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Arizona Casino cash: $2834931	RECIPE FOR DISASTER
Posts: 55,292

08-21-2018, 09:45 AM	#74
ModSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $4294563	The fans won't miss Alex Smith. But he has some valid points about the way this team operated and won under Alex, and how it will look quite a bit different under Mahomes. __________________ It's O'side or No side, baby.
Posts: 64,307