Chiefs Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

kcpasco · 11-21-2018, 12:27 AM

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable.

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.

Hammock Parties · 11-21-2018, 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.

Flying High D · 11-21-2018, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a ~~hamstring pull~~ Haglund deformity away from $20M per on the bench.

FYP

St. Patty's Fire · 11-21-2018, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.

We’re not re-signing OBJ with the intent of playing him with a washed up/always overrated Eli Manning.

If we were a question mark at QB, then yes giving Hill that 20M might be unwise.

But he will be playing with the best QB in the league moving forward. You absolute give Reek WHATEVER he wants. The offense wouldn’t be the same without him.

**MahiMike** · 11-21-2018, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.

JakeF · 11-21-2018, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.

You can't pay anyone whatever they want. It hurts the rest of the team too much.

If we get rid of our overpaid Mash unit players we will have tons of money.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.

I agree.

But I feel compelled to ask whether or not we really do need him. Brady has done GOAT performances with ****all for talent. Manning the same after Harrison shot up fools. Rodgers has done a lot with not much at receiver. I believe Mahomes is in that class. So does it make sense to drop top dollar on a WR? Or would the money be better served on the line and the other side of the ball.

Hill is insane and is going to get fat paid. And I think it should be us. But I don’t know for sure.

The problem with letting our guys walk because they’re too expensive is other guys in free agency are too damn expensive too.

Replacing Nelson is going to SUCK Scandrick isn’t long for the league so both our outside guys are going to need good money unless a draft pick can start year one. Same with Jones/Bailey. It’s going to be real expensive and that’s why Hill gives me hesitation though.

I still think we sign him, but man, there are some bleak outlooks out there.

**BigRedChief** · 11-21-2018, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Following year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady had to for most of his years.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Folloeing year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady has to for most of his years.

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now but I don’t think it will ever be a bad group necessarily. Even with NE, Tom has always had a few good pass catchers as long as they didn’t get hurt.

Idk, I like Veach and even though he hasn’t been perfect (no GM is), I love that he seems to be so methodical and detailed. I think he eats, sleeps, and breathes stuff like this that we’re talking about. I think he is a great talent evaluator, and a guy who has an ever evolving plan at all times. Wbf with he and Reid leading the charge.

**BigRedChief** · 11-21-2018, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

That’s the beautiful thing about where we are right now. We’re likely going to see the Chiefs built to win in several different ways around Mahomes, and we’ll just see what works best. Right now it’s elite offense around him with a study front four, in 4-5 years it might be lobsided toward defense altogether, or maybe they end up with a balance of just good on both sides of the ball. That cap money is going to be spread somehow around Mahomes and I don’t know where, but I don’t expect us to be far from the cap ceiling ever.

Hammock Parties · 11-21-2018, 12:32 AM

The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed.

It's honestly kinda shitty.

I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes.

11-21-2018, 12:19 AM	Topic Starter
Buehler445 Supporter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS Casino cash: $2334734	Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts. I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com. RB Spoiler! Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed. David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option) Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck. WR Spoiler! OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know. DL Spoiler! Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there. Pass Rush Spoiler! Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (** Donk Forever) Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed. We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another motherer who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes. Corner Spoiler!** Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed. Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed. Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good. I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it. That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap. My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
Posts: 56,771

11-21-2018, 12:27 AM	#2
kcpasco MVP Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $7733463	2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.
Posts: 15,477

11-21-2018, 12:32 AM	#15
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4730478	The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed. It's honestly kinda shitty. I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,765