***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

They’ll likely need to continually change the antigen they’re using the mRNA for as the virus mutates or drifts over time but there are a lot of ways to track and stay ahead of that game.

[dirk digler]

Great read from Trevor Bedford on the 2 new variants (UK and South Africa)

With #COVID19 vaccine efficacy of ~95%, I'm looking forward to vaccine distribution in 2021 bringing the pandemic under control. However, I'm concerned that we'll see antigenic drift of SARS-CoV-2 and may need to update the strain used in the vaccine with some regularity. 1/18

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 19, 2020

[O.city]

Yeah he’s very intelligent with this stuff. Good read.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah he’s very intelligent with this stuff. Good read.

Yep and sorry I hadn’t read the last page or so and you already echoed a lot what he said.

Sounds like we maybe in store for a recurring vaccine shot. Yuck.

[DaFace]

FWIW, my cousin is getting plasma with antibodies. Hope that gets him on the right track. Aunt and uncle both feel like shit but seem to be getting better slowly at home.

[petegz28]

I am backing out on Xmas with half my family. Some people amaze me.

Mom's side my Sister, her Husband and my 2 nephews are coming in along with my niece and her husband. Niece had Covid earlier this month and her husband has tested negative twice since so I am good there.

Dad and Step Mom are staying with me. We usually go out to my Uncle's on Xmas Eve but I am canceling that trip. Why?

2 days before Xmas Eve my Aunt and Uncle are having a party for my Aunt's Dad and her side of the family at her Dad's house. These are Italian families so yeah, nothing small.

Then 2 days later she is wanting to have Xmas Eve as she usually does with with other 2 Aunt's and Uncles, one of which who just had female surgery last week, my Cousins who are coming in from Minnesota, my other Cousin and his fiancé who were just vacationing in Mississippi last week and and my other Cousin who lives in the bars. Plus my Aunt's 90+ year old Mom and Dad from the party 2 days prior.

I just can't do it. I am not worried about me but I have my Dad and Step Mom with me and I hope they don't go and on Xmas my Father In Law and Brother In Law are coming over.

Small groups I can take but I can't see going to a 30+ person gathering especially with the people hosting it were at another 30+ person gathering 2 days prior.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

FWIW:

London (CNN)Parts of Britain will go back into lockdown during Christmas after a newly identified strain of Covid-19 proved to spread more quickly than previous strains of the virus.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a series of stricter coronavirus restrictions, tightening rules around household mixing that were due to be relaxed over Christmas in London and southeast England.

The PM broke the news Saturday that London and the southeast of England, where cases are surging, will go into Tier 4 restrictions, similar to a lockdown, on Sunday.

"The spread is being driven by the new variant of the virus," Johnson said in a hastily called press conference. "It appears to spread more easily and may be up to 70% more transmissable than the earlier strain."

Awww come on 2020. For **** sakes....

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am backing out on Xmas with half my family. Some people amaze me.

Mom's side my Sister, her Husband and my 2 nephews are coming in along with my niece and her husband. Niece had Covid earlier this month and her husband has tested negative twice since so I am good there.

Dad and Step Mom are staying with me. We usually go out to my Uncle's on Xmas Eve but I am canceling that trip. Why?

2 days before Xmas Eve my Aunt and Uncle are having a party for my Aunt's Dad and her side of the family at her Dad's house. These are Italian families so yeah, nothing small.

Then 2 days later she is wanting to have Xmas Eve as she usually does with with other 2 Aunt's and Uncles, one of which who just had female surgery last week, my Cousins who are coming in from Minnesota, my other Cousin and his fiancé who were just vacationing in Mississippi last week and and my other Cousin who lives in the bars. Plus my Aunt's 90+ year old Mom and Dad from the party 2 days prior.

I just can't do it. I am not worried about me but I have my Dad and Step Mom with me and I hope they don't go and on Xmas my Father In Law and Brother In Law are coming over.

Small groups I can take but I can't see going to a 30+ person gathering especially with the people hosting it were at another 30+ person gathering 2 days prior.

That's an impressively risky roll of the dice for them. Good luck.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Yep and sorry I hadn’t read the last page or so and you already echoed a lot what he said.

Sounds like we maybe in store for a recurring vaccine shot. Yuck.

I got a flu shot for the first time in decades this year. I'll get the covid update yearly if thats what it takes to get back to normal or stay normal.

[MahomesMagic]

Can anyone point me to the evidence that this new variant is “70% more transmissible than the old variant?”

— Carl Heneghan (@carlheneghan) December 19, 2020

I suspect it’s invented. It’s one of around 40,000 variants, typically emerging from error prone replication. It would be funny if it weren’t so serious if it turns out to be an asymptomatic variant: easy to catch & pass on but doesn’t make you ill.
We could call it a vaccine.

— Yardley Yeadon (@MichaelYeadon3) December 20, 2020

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am backing out on Xmas with half my family. Some people amaze me.

Mom's side my Sister, her Husband and my 2 nephews are coming in along with my niece and her husband. Niece had Covid earlier this month and her husband has tested negative twice since so I am good there.

Dad and Step Mom are staying with me. We usually go out to my Uncle's on Xmas Eve but I am canceling that trip. Why?

2 days before Xmas Eve my Aunt and Uncle are having a party for my Aunt's Dad and her side of the family at her Dad's house. These are Italian families so yeah, nothing small.

Then 2 days later she is wanting to have Xmas Eve as she usually does with with other 2 Aunt's and Uncles, one of which who just had female surgery last week, my Cousins who are coming in from Minnesota, my other Cousin and his fiancé who were just vacationing in Mississippi last week and and my other Cousin who lives in the bars. Plus my Aunt's 90+ year old Mom and Dad from the party 2 days prior.

I just can't do it. I am not worried about me but I have my Dad and Step Mom with me and I hope they don't go and on Xmas my Father In Law and Brother In Law are coming over.

Small groups I can take but I can't see going to a 30+ person gathering especially with the people hosting it were at another 30+ person gathering 2 days prior.

I am proud of you Pete you are doing the right thing. Hope you can talk your dad in not going either.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Can anyone point me to the evidence that this new variant is “70% more transmissible than the old variant?”

— Carl Heneghan (@carlheneghan) December 19, 2020

I suspect it’s invented. It’s one of around 40,000 variants, typically emerging from error prone replication. It would be funny if it weren’t so serious if it turns out to be an asymptomatic variant: easy to catch & pass on but doesn’t make you ill.
We could call it a vaccine.

— Yardley Yeadon (@MichaelYeadon3) December 20, 2020

Yeah, something seems a little off here.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am proud of you Pete you are doing the right thing. Hope you can talk your dad in not going either.

Meh, nothing really to be proud of. I can handle my Mom's side, 8 adults, 3 kids, 2 of the adults have already had Covid and one has recently tested negative twice. I think that's fairly safe.

The other side though I just do not get. It's like I told my Wife, it's on thing to go the beach and get in the water knowing sharks live there. It's another to jump out of a boat into water where you can see the sharks swimming around you.

[RunKC]

About 8 million more doses shipping next week. Amazing!

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...pV_noNSumFxVwg

[AussieChiefsFan]

Here in Sydney (and the state of NSW in general) we've had zero locally acquired cases for over 2 months now. But..... as happened down in Victoria 6 months ago, a breach in the hotel quarentine system has leaked the virus into the community.

The last few days of cases look like this:

.............
14 Dec - 0
15 Dec - 0
16 Dec - 0
17 Dec - 3
18 Dec - 15
19 Dec - 23
20 Dec - 30
21 Dec - ??

Most of these recent cases are contained to an area called the Northern Beaches.

So the next 7 days will be critical in finding out if the outbreak has been successfully contained to that area or not. 28 of the 30 cases today were just in the Northern Beaches... so fingers crossed.

I really feel for our brothers and sisters in the US. Here in Sydney, we've been cruising since around August and most things have been opened up for a while now.

It's a tough thought to have to go back to how things were before June/July.

At least the vaccine should be around the corner.