***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

There’s a shitload of us citizens that live in Mexico

If they were to get it I’d imagine I’d wanna come back here to be treated

Half the cases in Ontario were from migrant workers yesterday.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Half the cases in Ontario were from migrant workers yesterday.

I’ve read similar things in Florida and such.

We’re hotspot testing so you’ll probably get that

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

New York and their leadership seemed to do everything wrong.

We’re shielding the elderly now, nursing homes and such.

The biggest issue I see is that some places didn’t use the lockdown to really plan

Sure but alot of these states have had to roll back or stop their reopening plans when in reality they shouldn't have re-opened much or alot slower.

None of them even met the criteria to re-open but they went ahead and did it anyway.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Sure but alot of these states have had to roll back or stop their reopening plans when in reality they shouldn't have re-opened much or alot slower.

None of them even met the criteria to re-open but they went ahead and did it anyway.

I don’t think it’s anything to do with how fast they reopened or not. They didn’t get cases down low enough first

[O.city]

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pres...nt-of-covid-19

Gilead announces remdisivir lowers mortality by 62% in severe patients

So that’s great. I’m skeptical but if true that’s huge

[dirk digler]

So we are long way from herd immunity. NY approximately has only 19% seroprevalence and the recent Spain study showed only 5%.

Only way to get herd immunity is via vaccine. Hope it comes soon or it is going to be long fall\winter. Really hoping the Oxford vaccine is getting close since they are having very good results in Brazil currently.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.20142190v1

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don’t think it’s anything to do with how fast they reopened or not. They didn’t get cases down low enough first

That's why they reopened too soon.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

So we are long way from herd immunity. NY approximately has only 19% seroprevalence and the recent Spain study showed only 5%.

Only way to get herd immunity is via vaccine. Hope it comes soon or it is going to be long fall\winter. Really hoping the Oxford vaccine is getting close since they are having very good results in Brazil currently.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.20142190v1

Eh that’s not necessarily true. With the stuff about cross immunity and some potential pre existing immunity I don’t think HI is that high. I’m guessing New York is there or pretty close

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don’t think it’s anything to do with how fast they reopened or not. They didn’t get cases down low enough first

Some people like to confuse "too fast" with "too soon". Your point is probably more accurate in stating that they re-opened "too soon".

Some won't distinguish the two however.

[dirk digler]

Air re circulation role in the infection with COVID-19, lessons learned from Diamond Princess cruise ship

This is a pre print that was released yesterday. There have been a couple of others like this that suggested HVAC didn't play a role.

It does make you wonder why when you are indoors your chances to get infected go up significantly.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.20148775v1

Conclusions: Airborne transmission of COVID-19 through the ventilation system onboard could explain the virus spread into cabins during the quarantine period.

[RedRaider56]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Some people like to confuse "too fast" with "too soon". Your point is probably more accurate in stating that they re-opened "too soon".

Some won't distinguish the two however.

I think it was "too fast". The Tx. governor was way too quick to pull the trigger on opening bars & gyms. Couple that with all the protests, with no social distancing, no masks etc and you had a recipe for disaster.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RedRaider56

I think it was "too fast". The Tx. governor was way too quick to pull the trigger on opening bars & gyms. Couple that with all the protests, with no social distancing, no masks etc and you had a recipe for disaster.

Might be some bad timing with that as well.

1. You had to expect some kind of rise in cases with re-opening
2. The Protests wreaked more havoc vis-a-vis Covid than many want to admit
3. Mexico had\has a surge in Covid going on


That kind of amounts to a perfect storm almost...

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by eDave

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/e...ards/index.php

Daily hospitalizations down, hospital utilization flat-lining. Hispanics are now the highest %age. Ducey introduced increased testing in S. Phx, which is predominately hispanic.

Color me optimistic.

I hope you're right, but there seems to be a few caveats in the data sets:

• On confirmed cases by day, there is a note that cases in the last 4-7 days may not be recorded
• Under hospitalizations, it is noted that the status of 63% of cases are unknown
• Ventilator usage (which national studies seem to indicate ~80% mortality rate for usage in Covid19) is at an all time high

That said, it looks like the demographic data suggests that new infections may have peaked a bit after the time of the snowbird migration back north and that most of the infected are fairly young and in a relatively low risk population age range which would suggest lower mortality rates.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Some people like to confuse "too fast" with "too soon". Your point is probably more accurate in stating that they re-opened "too soon".

Some won't distinguish the two however.

Yep, reopening for salons, restaurants with limited capacities, etc I think were fine for the most part. It's the bars, gyms, casinos etc that were questionable.

But then again...you can't just kill these businesses. People were getting restless. I'm glad I wasn't one who had to make the decisions.

[RedRaider56]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Might be some bad timing with that as well.

1. You had to expect some kind of rise in cases with re-opening
2. The Protests wreaked more havoc vis-a-vis Covid than many want to admit
3. Mexico had\has a surge in Covid going on


That kind of amounts to a perfect storm almost...

yep. And if you look at the demographics of the county I live in, 30% of the cases are 20-29 y/o group and the Hispanic population makes up 51% of the total cases.
Not surprising that you have either multi-generations living in the same house or within close proximity of one another.