Football NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running

**DaFace** · 10:08 AM

I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ture.html?_r=0

**DaFace** · 11-12-2018, 10:07 AM

It seems like they lag a bit when updating games each week, so here's the current look at our chances of HFA.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...in&event=seed1

Currently, they're showing us as a 66% chance to get HFA and an 81% chance to get a bye. The biggest games remaining on the schedule is, by far, the game against the Chargers. If we win that one, our chances jump to 79%. If we lose, they drop to 45%. Aside from that, it's pretty obvious stuff. Patriots lose = good. Chargers lose = good.

htismaqe · 11-12-2018, 10:11 AM

67% chance of HFA throughout? I'll take it!

O.city · 11-12-2018, 10:12 AM

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.

TambaBerry · 11-12-2018, 10:13 AM

it wont let me look at the page asking for money

**DaFace** · 11-12-2018, 10:21 AM

Another pretty amusing scenario: if we were to lose every game from here until the end of the season, we still have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. Reid should just tank the season and rest our starters for 6 weeks so that we can blast through everyone in the playoffs completely fresh.

ChiefBlueCFC · 11-12-2018, 10:23 AM

As long as the Chiefs take care of their own business, it doesn't matter what these other losers do. But Saints still play Pitt, Pitt plays SD and NE as well. So Pitt beats SD and NE and loses to Saints would be nice. But, as I said, take care of business it doesn't matter what these other teams do.

RunKC · 11-12-2018, 10:30 AM

If the Chiefs win in Mexico City, we pretty much clinch HFA IMO.

Chief Northman · 11-12-2018, 10:30 AM

Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny.

If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed.
I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table.
Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.

htismaqe · 11-12-2018, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.

The Chargers aren't winning at Arrowhead.

King_Chief_Fan · 11-12-2018, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny.

If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed.
I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table.
Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

htismaqe · 11-12-2018, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

King_Chief_Fan · 11-12-2018, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

**MahiMike** · 11-12-2018, 10:44 AM

If they beat the Rams, it's 83% chance for #1 seed, even w/2 losses. W/1 loss it goes to 99%.

O.city · 11-12-2018, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The Chargers aren't winning at Arrowhead.

I don't think so, but I also don't want to have to play that as an essential single game for HFA.

11-12-2018, 10:02 AM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $2046899	NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ture.html?_r=0 Last edited by DaFace; 11-12-2018 at 10:08 AM..
Posts: 51,762

11-12-2018, 10:07 AM	#2
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $2046899	It seems like they lag a bit when updating games each week, so here's the current look at our chances of HFA. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...in&event=seed1 Currently, they're showing us as a 66% chance to get HFA and an 81% chance to get a bye. The biggest games remaining on the schedule is, by far, the game against the Chargers. If we win that one, our chances jump to 79%. If we lose, they drop to 45%. Aside from that, it's pretty obvious stuff. Patriots lose = good. Chargers lose = good.
Posts: 51,762

11-12-2018, 10:11 AM	#3
htismaqe 'Tis my eye! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Chiefsplanet Casino cash: $10269900	67% chance of HFA throughout? I'll take it!
Posts: 100,022

11-12-2018, 10:12 AM	#4
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2764064	I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.
Posts: 81,234

11-12-2018, 10:13 AM	#5
TambaBerry MVP Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $1695541	it wont let me look at the page asking for money
Posts: 10,607

11-12-2018, 10:21 AM	#6
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $2046899	Another pretty amusing scenario: if we were to lose every game from here until the end of the season, we still have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. Reid should just tank the season and rest our starters for 6 weeks so that we can blast through everyone in the playoffs completely fresh.
Posts: 51,762	2 0

11-12-2018, 10:23 AM	#7
ChiefBlueCFC Veteran Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: KCMO BABY Casino cash: $8070410	As long as the Chiefs take care of their own business, it doesn't matter what these other losers do. But Saints still play Pitt, Pitt plays SD and NE as well. So Pitt beats SD and NE and loses to Saints would be nice. But, as I said, take care of business it doesn't matter what these other teams do. __________________ WE FIRED BOB SUTTON
Posts: 2,728

11-12-2018, 10:30 AM	#8
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2269611	If the Chiefs win in Mexico City, we pretty much clinch HFA IMO. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,034

11-12-2018, 10:30 AM	#9
Chief Northman MVP Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Canada Casino cash: $6900890	Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny. If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed. I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table. Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.
Posts: 8,145

11-12-2018, 10:44 AM	#14
MahiMike He's Mahomie! Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Jax, FL Casino cash: $10023443	If they beat the Rams, it's 83% chance for #1 seed, even w/2 losses. W/1 loss it goes to 99%. __________________ 99.9%
Posts: 17,387