If the Chiefs go 8-8 or better 49ers get a 2nd round pick.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

A third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So: San Francisco will probably have first-, second- and four third-rounders next year. But if the Chiefs surprise, it'll more likely be a one, two twos and three threes. As we've seen, GM Trent Baalke is dangerous with extra picks in his hands. If Colin Kaepernick is very good, the Niners should be annual contenders for years with the picks laid out that way.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2SWCd8Gea

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I did a linear regression between pass attempts per game and various stats per attempt for Alex. Someone mentioned that Reid typically called 35 passes per game, so I based it on that number.

If you base it on his entire career, you could expect:

3661 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 1 Fumble, and 24 Sacks.

I think Chiefs fans would be very happy with that. However, it is kind of skewed by a horrible rookie season with very few attempts. If you limit it to the last 4 seasons to cover his career after his injury, you get:

3498 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs, 5 Fumbles, and 32 Sacks.

That seems pretty realistic.

Realistic and pretty shitty for a guy we gave up what amounts to a last 1st round pick.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Oh cool.

So here we are... sitting around waiting to see if Alex Smith will make it in his 9th season and if he doesn't we're hoping that a UDFA QB gets his head out of his ass and becomes the next Kurt Warner. And if said scenario falls apart in midair we'll once again be looking for the next reject for the 2015 season and some 3rd day developmental QB.

**** YA!

Which backups contracts are ending after the 2014 season? Who's going to be our next QB?

And for this you paid 2 high draft picks.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

You have my sympathy. It is what Alex brings to fan forums. Apparently the 49ers forum suffered through this for years.

It is now so peaceful on the 49ers forum, you have to search for threads on religion, abortion and gun control just to fight with somebody.

It's such a horrible experience that you've followed Alex Smith here so you can suffer through it again.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Speaking of ignoring, first Ricky Stanzi and then Geno Smith... how many strikes should we give you before we just ignore your forcefully articulated but hopelessly wrong opinions about QBs? You should change your name to CoMoOfQB.

In his defense it looks Geno Smith will be the only starting QB of this class this year and there were about half dozen guys promoted on this forum as being "their guy".

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

In his defense it looks Geno Smith will be the only starting QB of this class this year and there were about half dozen guys promoted on this forum as being "their guy".

Tyler Palko was an NFL starting QB.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

I see your point.. where where did the magical number of 560 attempts come up? Do we really expect Alex to be tossing it up 35 times a game for 16 games?

Someone mentioned that Reid averaged 35 attempts per game. The 16 games part certainly may be unrealistic, though.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

To say he's injury prone is spot-****ing on.

80 games played in 7 seasons. 11.4 per year.

Last I checked, the NFL plays 16 games per season.

So Alex Smith is missing over 4 games PER SEASON.

Only on CP can a guy miss 25% of his games and people say that the injury prone label is "kinda outawhack".

Or would you rather point out that he's missed games because he's been benched for scrubs like Shaun Hill?

QB Durability
(Active QBs, minimum 50 games starting)

Take this with a grain of salt as QBs with consistently solid O-lines won't take near the beating as teams with porous O-lines. This is just food for thought is all.


16.0 games/year - Joe Flacco
16.0 games/year - Eli Manning
16.0 games/year - Phillip Rivers
16.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do not count the neck injury)

15.9 games/year - Josh Freeman
15.6 games/year - Aaron Rodgers
15.6 games/year - Matt Ryan
15.5 games/year - Mark Sanchez
15.4 games/year - Drew Brees
15.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do count the neck injury)

14.7 games/year - Jay Cutler
14.7 games/year - Ben Roethlisberger
14.0 games/year - Sam Bradford

13.4 games/year - Carson Palmer
13.3 games/year - Tony Romo
13.2 games/year - Matt Schaub

12.5 games/year Alex Smith (Injuries only, no benchings)

11.4 games/year - Alex Smith (includes benchings)
11.2 games/year - Michael Vick
11.2 games/year - Matt Stafford

To the guy you were responding, factual data beats seat-of-the-pants opinion every time.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

QB Durability
(Active QBs, minimum 50 games starting)

Take this with a grain of salt as QBs with consistently solid O-lines won't take near the beating as teams with porous O-lines. This is just food for thought is all.


16.0 games/year - Joe Flacco
16.0 games/year - Eli Manning
16.0 games/year - Phillip Rivers
16.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do not count the neck injury)

15.9 games/year - Josh Freeman
15.6 games/year - Aaron Rodgers
15.6 games/year - Matt Ryan
15.5 games/year - Mark Sanchez
15.4 games/year - Drew Brees
15.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do count the neck injury)

14.7 games/year - Jay Cutler
14.7 games/year - Ben Roethlisberger
14.0 games/year - Sam Bradford

13.4 games/year - Carson Palmer
13.3 games/year - Tony Romo
13.2 games/year - Matt Schaub

11.4 games/year - Alex Smith (included benchings)
11.2 games/year - Michael Vick
11.2 games/year - Matt Stafford

To the guy you were responding, factual data beats seat-of-the-pants opinion every time.

Looks like you need to continue this, because it's been determined he actually only averages 8.75 games played per year.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Someone mentioned that Reid averaged 35 attempts per game. The 16 games part certainly may be unrealistic, though.

Alex won't be pitching it up 35 times a game... that's unrealistic.. unless you think the Chiefs run game and defense is ass.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by ayleswbj

I really dont get the whole "glass' or "injury prone" bit. His shoulder injury is going on 5 years now. That is a life time in the NFL. The shoulder is long behind him. What can you do about concussions in todays NFL? That the game we live in today. Your gonna sit, He was cleared to play the week after, Harbaugh had his window and went with it. To say he is injury prone is kinda outawhack.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

Smith once again suffered an injured shoulder[30] in the 49ers week 7[31] game against the Carolina Panthers and was not available to play week 8 against the Denver Broncos in London. He was replaced by Troy Smith, who had 14 games of experience in the NFL before joining the 49ers organization just before the start of the regular season. Troy Smith took Smith's position after winning 2 straight victories against the St. Louis Rams and the Denver Broncos.[32]

It was Smith's non-throwing shoulder this time, but who knows how long it took to heal, given that Alex was benched for Troy Smith?

That was 3 seasons ago, but it confirms the concerns of Chiefs fans.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

Alex won't be pitching it up 35 times a game... that's unrealistic.. unless you think the Chiefs run game and defense is ass.

Are you unfamiliar with Andy Reid? He called 39 pass plays per game last season.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by patteeu

It's such a horrible experience that you've followed Alex Smith here so you can suffer through it again.

Nope. Just having fun watching Alex pollute somebody else's forum for a change.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Looks like you need to continue this, because it's been determined he actually only averages 8.75 games played per year.

I'll check my math. I did an approximation. I'll be more accurate here...

Alex was on the 49ers roster for 8 full seasons. 8 x 16 = 128 games

Alex played in 80 games.

2005, Alex played 9 games missing 7 to injury.
2006, Alex played 16 games, missing 0.
2007, Alex played 7 games, missing 9 to injury.
2008, Alex played 0 games, missing 16 to injury.
2009, Alex played 11 games, missing 0 to injury, but was benched for 5 games.
2010, Alex played 11 games, missing 2 to injury, but was benched for 3 games.
2011, Alex played all 16 games.
2012, Alex played 7 games, missing 2 to injury, but was benched for 7 games.

Out of 128 games...
Alex played 77 games.
Alex missed 36 games to injury.
Alex was benched for 15 games.

Alex was benched for 15 games, so that is like losing an entire season, from 8 down to 7.

So durability wise, Alex played 77 games in 7 seasons = 11.0 games/year.

Including injury and benching, Alex played 77 games in 8 seasons = 9.6 games/year. I will correct my list...

[Kaepernick]

QB Durability - Revised
(Active QBs, minimum 50 games starting)

Take this with a grain of salt as QBs with consistently solid O-lines won't take near the beating as teams with porous O-lines. This is just food for thought is all.


16.0 games/year - Joe Flacco
16.0 games/year - Eli Manning
16.0 games/year - Phillip Rivers
16.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do not count the neck injury)

15.9 games/year - Josh Freeman
15.6 games/year - Aaron Rodgers
15.6 games/year - Matt Ryan
15.5 games/year - Mark Sanchez
15.4 games/year - Drew Brees
15.0 games/year - Peyton Manning (If you do count the neck injury)

14.7 games/year - Jay Cutler
14.7 games/year - Ben Roethlisberger
14.0 games/year - Sam Bradford

13.4 games/year - Carson Palmer
13.3 games/year - Tony Romo
13.2 games/year - Matt Schaub

11.2 games/year - Michael Vick
11.2 games/year - Matt Stafford
11.0 games/year Alex Smith (Injuries only, no benchings)

9.6 games/year - Alex Smith (includes benchings)

Touche. Point made.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Every move they've made has screamed win now. Why is it wrong for us to expect that they do so? Last year's 2 win season was a fluke, they won 7 the year before that with a far shittier team/QB situation/coaching.