***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

She's 8 days out and not doing well today I guess. Fever, body aches and started with loss of appetite. I am very worried for her.

And now due to my exposure I had to cancel taking time off this week and seeing my parents this weekend. I also realize this won't be the last time I'm exposed to COVID........it's just the most frustrating dream that never changes.

Yeah but you have already had it so you got that going for you, really. But I know where you're coming from. My Dad has had to cancel trips here twice this year because of all of this shit.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Damn that sucks Lew. I am sorry my memory is shit but what was your test results?

Positive back in May and then two negative test results. Never had symptoms.

Antibodies at the end of May were "undetermined."

Swabbed again in June was negative.

Now the State is running out of tests so unless you have symptoms, you aren't getting tested.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Dirk, I am sorry I won't disagree that re-opening has added to cases and I think it was naive to think it wouldn't. But bars only opened in CA roughly 14 days ago. The protests were going on for weeks before that.

I know people want to point to the re-openings but it's rather idiotic to think cases are spiking about 3-4 weeks after the protesting started and that has nothing to do with it. And amazingly the target group this time around is the exact age group of those running the streets in droves every night.

I don’t disagree and I am sure they played a part.

I just read since LA opened restaurants and bars etc on June 20th they have had 500k visitors and 83% of those establishments aren’t following the SD rules. LA is definitely the hotspot with well over 100k cases.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I don’t disagree and I am sure they played a part.

I just read since LA opened restaurants and bars etc on June 20th they have had 500k visitors and 83% of those establishments aren’t following the SD rules. LA is definitely the hotspot with well over 100k cases.

So up until now we have heard it takes how long before we see spikes in cases? The bars have been open in CA for what now, 10-12 days? Protests have been going on for 4-5 weeks?

I am gonna lean towards protests and probably slightly exacerbated by bars.

[Kiimo]

A couple things. One, I'm in agreement with the BLM protests but hell no am I going to those things as the virus doesn't care how valid the cause is. But also blaming the protests ignores a huge thing in LA. Most of the hotspot communities seem to be in latinx areas. From the beginning this has been a problem as wearing masks hasn't been common and staying home from work is not a valid option for many of these people.

Back in April people were saying the two biggest groups to ignore social distancing has been the rich and the poor. The poor out of necessity and the rich out of entitlement.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Positive back in May and then two negative test results. Never had symptoms.

Antibodies at the end of May were "undetermined."

Swabbed again in June was negative.

Now the State is running out of tests so unless you have symptoms, you aren't getting tested.

As Pete said at least you are probably immune.

My parents both passed a few years ago but I have spent a lot of time thinking wtf I would do if they were still alive right now. Not being able to be there and take care of them would be so freakin hard.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

A couple things. One, I'm in agreement with the BLM protests but hell no am I going to those things as the virus doesn't care how valid the cause is. But also blaming the protests ignores a huge thing in LA. Most of the hotspot communities seem to be in latinx areas. From the beginning this has been a problem as wearing masks hasn't been common and staying home from work is not a valid option for many of these people.

Back in April people were saying the two biggest groups to ignore social distancing has been the rich and the poor. The poor out of necessity and the rich out of entitlement.

I have posited for the last week or two the possibility of the recent surge in Mexico spilling across the border. That isn't to say illegals but there is just a lot of natural traffic and border crossings every day with CA, AZ and TX. No one really wants to address that for whatever reason. The fact you say it is primarily in the latin areas though would maybe substantiate that a bit.

[Discuss Thrower]

The median incubation period might very well be ~5 days but that's only because 80% of the cases are clustered at 1-3 days from exposure on one side and 13-15 on the other.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

As Pete said at least you are probably immune.

My parents both passed a few years ago but I have spent a lot of time thinking wtf I would do if they were still alive right now. Not being able to be there and take care of them would be so freakin hard.

Well, I have my Dad and Step Mom who both live in Phoenix and both in their late 60's\early 70's.

Both make the choice on how they want to live their life and I don't lecture the one way or the other.

As they have said, they are too old to merely exist through life for the rest of their days. Both have some form of underlying. Both are fairly active and healthy otherwise but they do have medical conditions.

What they told me was if they have to live like prisoners, being locked down, can't go here, can't go there, then at their age what is the point? Their fear I guess is by the time all this shit settles down and people are allowed to live their lives again they will be too old to live it the way they wanted.

Considering this primarily impacts the elderly I guess it's their opinion that matters over mine but it is what it is.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I have posited for the last week or two the possibility of the recent surge in Mexico spilling across the border. That isn't to say illegals but there is just a lot of natural traffic and border crossings every day with CA, AZ and TX. No one really wants to address that for whatever reason. The fact you say it is primarily in the latin areas though would maybe substantiate that a bit.

This is not a racist comment but I think it's Hispanics in America and has nothing to do with the border. Hispanics in general have a strong sense of family/friend gatherings. Many of them are still having these large gatherings because it's important to them. I know a nurse whose family had a party back in April when things were just getting rolling. 50 family members attended this party and of course they spread COVID to each other (many of them worked in healthcare!). 18 tested positive and 4 older family members died. It's a huge cultural thing for them.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

This is not a racist comment but I think it's Hispanics in America and has nothing to do with the border. Hispanics in general have a strong sense of family/friend gatherings. Many of them are still having these large gatherings because it's important to them. I know a nurse whose family had a party back in April when things were just getting rolling. 50 family members attended this party and of course they spread COVID to each other (many of them worked in healthcare!). 18 tested positive and 4 older family members died. It's a huge cultural thing for them.

Well here in good old JoCo, Ks, I can tell you the cases are highest among hispanics. Just a smidge over Whites but still higher.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by lewdog

This is not a racist comment but I think it's Hispanics in America and has nothing to do with the border. Hispanics in general have a strong sense of family/friend gatherings. Many of them are still having these large gatherings because it's important to them. I know a nurse whose family had a party back in April when things were just getting rolling. 50 family members attended this party and of course they spread COVID to each other (many of them worked in healthcare!). 18 tested positive and 4 older family members died. It's a huge cultural thing for them.

My neighbors were having parties every weekend with 20-30 people and a live band from around March to early May. Between a huge culture of community gatherings and lots of multi generational families, it's really tough for many Latinos to stay isolated.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well here in good old JoCo, Ks, I can tell you the cases are highest among hispanics. Just a smidge over Whites but still higher.

Originally Posted by DaFace

My neighbors were having parties every weekend with 20-30 people and a live band from around March to early May. Between a huge culture of community gatherings and lots of multi generational families, it's really tough for many Latinos to stay isolated.

Yup, it's very common. Multi-family living and the responsibility to take care of the elderly until death makes this hard for them to isolate.

Plus, they just love to party. lol

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

A couple things. One, I'm in agreement with the BLM protests but hell no am I going to those things as the virus doesn't care how valid the cause is. But also blaming the protests ignores a huge thing in LA. Most of the hotspot communities seem to be in latinx areas. From the beginning this has been a problem as wearing masks hasn't been common and staying home from work is not a valid option for many of these people.

Back in April people were saying the two biggest groups to ignore social distancing has been the rich and the poor. The poor out of necessity and the rich out of entitlement.

The poor can't afford masks?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Yup, it's very common. Multi-family living and the responsibility to take care of the elderly until death makes this hard for them to isolate.



Plus, they just love to party. lol

I should add that the odd thing is that Colorado deaths line up with population distribution pretty closely despite the fact that Latinos overindex on cases by almost a factor of two. My theory is that they tend to be younger, while non-Hispanic white people are less likely to get it, but they are more likely to die from it since they tend to be older.

Data is here for Colorado FWIW.

https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data