The Myth that Nelson Sucks

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

PFF

Passer rating in coverage isn’t the same thing as a PFF grade

That’s a legitimate statistic.

Also, nobody should need PFF to tell them Nelson is having a good year.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Passer rating in coverage isn’t the same thing as a PFF grade

That’s a legitimate statistic.

Also, nobody should need PFF to tell them Nelson is having a good year.

But again - is Orlando Scandrick suddenly good or are our CBs being put in positions to be successful?

You watch Marcus Peters just trip over his dick every week while Orlando Scandrick can suddenly make a claim to be a genuine starting caliber CB for the first time in 5 years and you have to really consider the possibility that the staff is getting these guys to play at a level beyond their true talent.

And if that's the case - why do you pay for Nelson?

[Easy 6]

He has certainly picked up his level of play, and no he doesnt suck... but he still isnt a guy I wanna see starting next year, his ceiling is quality depth

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Easy 6

He has certainly picked up his level of play, and no he doesnt suck... but he still isnt a guy I wanna see starting next year, his ceiling is quality depth

I don't think you can make that argument at all.

His ceiling is what we've seen this season (this is a career year for him, IMO), and what he's been this season is far more than quality depth.

He's been genuinely great this year. And you don't have to trust the stats on their face - simply look at the company he's keeping. He's on lists with the guys that people would kill to acquire; the Patrick Peterson's and Chris Harris Jrs. Fitzpatrick was a high 1st round pick who's looked as good this year as Lattimore looked last year.

This is high company he's keeping, man. At some point you have to give something some weight. If it's not PFF or production in coverage, at the very least you have to consider him relative to his peers and right now his peer group is among the best in the league.

So to say his 'ceiling' is quality depth is simply objectively disprovable.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think you can make that argument at all.

His ceiling is what we've seen this season (this is a career year for him, IMO), and what he's been this season is far more than quality depth.

He's been genuinely great this year. And you don't have to trust the stats on their face - simply look at the company he's keeping. He's on lists with the guys that people would kill to acquire; the Patrick Peterson's and Chris Harris Jrs. Fitzpatrick was a high 1st round pick who's looked as good this year as Lattimore looked last year.

This is high company he's keeping, man. At some point you have to give something some weight. If it's not PFF or production in coverage, at the very least you have to consider him relative to his peers and right now his peer group is among the best in the league.

So to say his 'ceiling' is quality depth is simply objectively disprovable.

Lets see him maintain it across a full season and through the playoffs, then I'd consider changing my tune

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Easy 6

Lets see him maintain it across a full season and through the playoffs, then I'd consider changing my tune

But that's not a reasonable position to take if you're talking 'ceiling'.

Sure, you can adjust his 'top quartile of probable outcomes' or something like that, but for 10 games the dude has played like one of the top 5-10 CBs in the league. I don't care if he gets his ass beaten like a rented mule for the rest of the season, that damn sure doesn't change the fact that he's proven his 'ceiling' to be far more than quality depth.

Especially not when he was a one of the better slot corners in football in 2016 before we asked him to bite off more than he could chew in 2017.

You're just not being fair here and that's coming from one of the people has has been most critical of Nelson to this point.

[Easy 6]

Players get hot for a while and then tail off all of the time

I'm not sold on him as a long-term answer, at all... if he is still starting here next year, I'll gladly eat humble pie

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But again - is Orlando Scandrick suddenly good or are our CBs being put in positions to be successful?

You watch Marcus Peters just trip over his dick every week while Orlando Scandrick can suddenly make a claim to be a genuine starting caliber CB for the first time in 5 years and you have to really consider the possibility that the staff is getting these guys to play at a level beyond their true talent.

And if that's the case - why do you pay for Nelson?

Oh I agree, I probably wouldn’t pay up for Nelson either. Fuller’s the only corner I’d be willing to give a long term deal at the moment and even then I think Ford and Jones are higher priorities on that side of the ball.

Billay just continues to act like Nelson playing well is some kind of joke.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Oh I agree, I probably wouldn’t pay up for Nelson either. Fuller’s the only corner I’d be willing to give a long term deal at the moment and even then I think Ford and Jones are higher priorities on that side of the ball.

Billay just continues to act like Nelson playing well is some kind of joke.

And like I said in the draft forum thread - I think if you offered Fuller (with one year left on his rookie deal) the same contract you'd have to offer Nelson to keep him out of the FA market, you could get Fuller signed provided that you do it now rather than AFTER he plays out that rookie contract. At this rate, Fuller will get Trumaine Johnson money on the FA market, IMO. Teams are going to love what he's putting on tape.

And he's a much better long-term FA bet because his tools are simply better. Moreover, his work ethic and intelligence has been lauded at every turn.

That's a guy you pay for long-term, IMO. Nelson and guys of similar ilk are guys you develop and/or scheme into success. I think we can do that.