Le'Veon Bell to the New York Jets!

[God of Thunder]

Former Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell plans to sign with…the New York Jets, a league source tells ESPN

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2019

Le’Veon Bell: 4 years, $52.5 million with the Jets, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2019

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I don't even understand your argument. In mine it's simple, he makes $14.5 million actual dollars, plays the year, and hits free agency and -- unless he somehow sucks for some reason or suffers a catastrophic injury, he gets PAID.

In yours, what? You predict he does suck? He does suffer a catastrophic injury? Why? That isn't remotely typical for 20-something RBs even with 400 touches, JUST LIKE HE HAD IN 2017.

Sure, freak things can happen, but the odds greatly favor him being fine and making this contract ON TOP OF AN EXTRA $14.5 MILLION.

You still don't ****ing get it

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Wacky theories? An NFL RB getting injured is a wacky theory?

You're a dumbass

You're the one wildly speculating with zero analysis or understanding of the history.

NFL Players with 400+ touches:

So right off the bat we see from those numbers that it can be done multiple times. There are 9 players in fact that have done it more than once. Emmitt Smith and Eric Dickerson did it 4 times; Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson did it three times each and James Wilder, Ricky Williams, Terrell Davis and Payton did it twice. 8 players did it in back to back seasons. The most impressive of the bunch was Smith who went back to back twice and 4 times in 5 years. He followed those up with 6 more consecutive 1,000 yards seasons.

Answer the Bell
So what does this all mean for Bell? The positives are that players have had productive seasons and long careers after reaching 400 touches. The negatives could include a decrease in yards per carry and total yards from scrimmage or an increase in injuries.

But it is by no means a certainty that this will lead to a negative campaign in 2018. Even with the 22% average drop from his 2017 numbers (1,946 yards from scrimmage) he would still average over 100 yards from scrimmage per game which would still put him in the top 5 in the NFL last season. He got the exclusive rights franchise tag this year and is evidently currently still in negotiations with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Set to make over $14.5 million this year, nearly $5.6 million more than the next highest paid back, you can bet Pittsburgh will get their money’s worth.

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/games-...acks-400-club/

[MahiMike]

I really think Bell was wanting to come here. Just think if the Ford deal had happened a day earlier...would have been an even swap money wise.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

You still don't ****ing get it

Look in the mirror. All he needs to do is avoid serious injury for ONE YEAR and he's $14.5 million richer.

And the stats strongly suggest he isn't likely to get injured. Emmitt Smith had 4 400 yard campaigns. So did Eric Dickerson. Curtis Martin, Edge and LT each had three.

JFC, you act like a guy having a 400 touch season is guaranteed to break.

You're clueless. Don't be an agent. You can't analyze shit for shit.

[BryanBusby]

I think you're being reeruned on purpose by this point.

The Steelers at most were guaranteeing Bell 14.5 million. He just more than doubled it.

He's maximizing the dollars earned for each day he puts on a uniform and he just did that.

For every last era example your shit turd linking provided, there's a Gurley who gets diagnosed with arthritis in the knee year 1 into a longer term commitment or a guy like Eric Berry that blows out his Achilles Week 1 in the new contract.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

I think you're being reeruned on purpose by this point.

The Steelers at most were guaranteeing Bell 14.5 million. He just more than doubled it.

He's maximizing the dollars earned for each day he puts on a uniform and he just did that.

What part of HE STILL GETS THIS CONTRACT, but with an extra $14.5 million in the bank, do you not understand?

You're wildly assuming he suffers a catastrophic injury, which is ridiculous. Sure, it's possible, but that's not a risk you avoid for $14.5 million actual dollars paid to you.

There's only three scenarios here:

1. Get paid $14.5 million, do what he does, then make this contract (or perhaps more if he's not viewed as a cancer for sitting out a year).

OR

2. Get paid $14.5 million, and something serious happens and he doesn't make good on a contract now (or it's a much lesser one)

OR

3. Exactly what happened. He sits out 2018, gets paid $0, and then makes this contract.


You have spent/cost an ACTUAL $14.5 million for your client because a low-probability event -- injury -- might happen which costs him more in the future. But you have LOCKED IN A GUARANTEED LOSS OF $14.5 MILLION based on that low probability event, by forcing him to sit out a year.

The odds very strongly favor -- based on actual history -- that he plays, does fine, and then goes to free agency and makes serious bank. My scenario 1, in other words. And now he's $14.5 million richer for having done it than if he didn't.


Your position seems to be extreme risk avoidance. Sure, fine, if you're hyper-cautious I guess. But in the overwhelming majority of cases, my approach gets the guy an extra $14.5 million over your approach.

[BryanBusby]

Yeah you're just a ****ing moron

Moving on now.

[Amnorix]

You want even better advice, even if you are hyper-cautious? Take the $14.5 million, and then spend some of it on a disability insurance policy.

Fine, now you have protected against at least some of the injury risk that you're so paranoid about.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ct-from-injury

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Yeah you're just a ****ing moron

Moving on now.

Tap-out acknowledged. Your position is ridiculous. "But he might get hurt". Sure, so every NFL player should skip the last year of their contract, if their next contract is likely to be phat. Even if it pays $14.5 million!

That makes ****ing sense. NOT.

[BryanBusby]

You're suggesting a guy that has a pretty extensive list of injuries already, and nearly shredded his knee, should have played on a second consecutive one year deal. I have no idea what to tell you, if you insist that's a good idea m8

There is no tap out, but there's no reason to keep arguing with someone that has no clue what actual guaranteed money holds in value.

Go tell your stupid ****ing idea to Alex Smith, who has all of his salary protected right now, thanks to his guaranteed money. Even though he'll probably never play a single snap again. Football is a violent contact sport and that shit happens frequently.

[wazu]

Bell could have had $15M guaranteed in the bank before even negotiating this contract. If he'd been beasting in 2018 he probably would've had more than one suitor as well. I guess if you just want to bet on catastrophic injury, then fine. Bell lowered the floor and the ceiling.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

err...what? He could've played on the franchise tag last year for $14.5 million and then done this exact same contract.

Disagree if he had been ran into the ground at the tune of 400+ touches no one would have given him big money it would have been a "he's done to much wear" narrative.

Bell did the right thing for him.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

We have the worst RB's in the division. Thats a fact.

Broncos and Chargers probably have better ones

But since when is Doug Martin better than Williams?

2015?

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by Best22

Broncos and Chargers probably have better ones

But since when is Doug Martin better than Williams?

2015?

He still can move. Rewatch the game at Arrowhead, he looked explosive when he was in.

[Red Dawg]

So Bell held out for less money?