2018 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

Opening day lineup

Fowler RF
Pham CF
Carpenter 3B
Ozuna LF
Martinez 1B
Molina C
Dejong SS
Wong 2B
Pitcher

Edit:
Matheny fired 07/14/2018




Opening Day Roster

Spoiler!

St. Louis has opted to carry 12 position players and 13 pitchers to begin the new season, with a four-man bench and eight-man bullpen.

Outfielders:
Dexter Fowler
Tommy Pham
Marcell Ozuna

Infielders:
Matt Carpenter
Paul DeJong
Kolten Wong

Catchers:
Yadier Molina
Francisco Pena

Utility:
Jose Martinez
Greg Garcia
Yairo Munoz
Jedd Gyrko

Starters:
Carlos Martinez
Michael Wacha
Luke Weaver
Miles Mikolas
Jack Flaherty

Relievers:
Dominic Leone
Tyler Lyons
Bud Norris
Brett Cecil
Sam Tuivailala
Matt Bowman
Jordan Hicks
Mike Mayers

On the DL:
Adam Wainwright
Luke Gregerson

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

This isn't the hard sell you're trying to make it.

Never said it was a hard sell.

BRC asked if the players he named would get a deal for Machado done and O.City is acting like the Orioles wont get jack shit for a guy that will get them a 1st round draft pick with a trade or not.

I dont see why the Orioles would have any interest in Jose Martinez. You can argue that Jose Martinez will be there longer than Trumbo, but I don't believe that Chris Davis is in their long term plans at 1B. I expect him to be hitting DH for them after Trumbo makes his exit.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Never said it was a hard sell.

BRC asked if the players he named would get a deal for Machado done and O.City is acting like the Orioles wont get jack shit for a guy that will get them a 1st round draft pick with a trade or not.

I dont see why the Orioles would have any interest in Jose Martinez. You can argue that Jose Martinez will be there longer than Trumbo, but I don't believe that Chris Davis is in their long term plans at 1B. I expect him to be hitting DH for them after Trumbo makes his exit.

If Chris Davis continues on this arc, he'll simply be cut and Angelos will eat the money. The dude's looking less and less like a major leaguer. His contract is actually worse than Pujols at this point, IMO.

As for Trumbo - the Orioles are losing a couple OFer as well next year and they've played Trumbo in left at times. But what Martinez provides over Trumbo (and Davis) is a completely different skill-set that their lineup simply doesn't have and is frankly difficult to acquire.

If they see Martinez as an .800 OPS guy then you're right - they're not going to move a ton to get him and he wouldn't have a great deal of value to them. But if they see a guy that can get to Camden and put up an .850+ with genuinely strong bat/ball skills, that's a different creature. That's something they don't actually have much of in that lineup.

For everything Martinez isn't (like...an actual baseball player), he is a polished, professional hitter. And his stroke would wreck shit in Baltimore. There's a chance for him to be a significant asset for them.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you think Bader, Martinez and Kelly get him?

Don't know for sure but I woudl do that in a heart beat. We have tons of OF prospects and another catcher in the wings.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Here's the question though....is he?

He doesn't want to move to 3b. And Didi Gregorious is in the midst of a no-shit MVP caliber season that's supported by some genuine changes in approach that could suggest a new true talent level.

Andujar has a plus hit tool and plus raw power at 3b. Torres is among the more highly regarded infield prospects in the sport.

I'm not saying that the Yankees can't make a move if they get him, but they might just not feel a desperate need. And I can't imagine the reaction to Stanton's struggles have been all that welcoming to him.

I'm not saying ignore the Yankees - yeah, they're a scary prospect. But I am saying that I don't think it's a truly foregone conclusion. And if you want a chance to make that a difficult decision for him, you're not going to do it with him in a strictly FA setting.

But if you get him in here, make him part of the team and immerse him in the environment. Maybe he loves playing with guys like Ozuna, Martinez and Fowler (hell, dude might like Pham - who knows?). It's truly the only shot the Cardinals have at him. He's a 25 yr old superstar we can give up a young pitcher with the build of a 17 yr old and a prospect or two to give ourselves a chance at sending him to the Hall with a redbird on his hat.

Take the damn chance. He'll get in that dugout, look down the bench and see his teammates and Mike Mathe....

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu*******.

If they wanna do that i say go for it. It's the most likely path to a superstar player they're gonna get.

I just think they're to afraid to do it.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

If Gyorko is hitting the ball so much better than Carpenter right now, why is his exit velocity the exact same and his hard hit percentage worse?

If the problem is him hitting into the teeth of the shift, why is his pull percentage lower than the last two years?

No one seemed to have a problem with him having a 48.1% pull rate in 2016, but now his 44.6% rate is problematic?

Is Bryce Harper suddenly a dogshit hitter because he has a .143 BABIP over the last two weeks?

Maybe it's just a small sample size.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

If they wanna do that i say go for it. It's the most likely path to a superstar player they're gonna get.

I just think they're to afraid to do it.

Probably.

It's been a chickenshit organization since LaRussa left and there was nobody to put pressure on DeWitt. Mozeliak is a ****ing bag man; a spineless company guy who's not going to go into DeWitt's office and demand he trade for Mark McGwire. And Mike Matheny isn't clever enough to start sending Adam Kennedy into the OF for the last 2 weeks of a lost season in order to send a message to the front office.

And since Mozeliak has set fire to about $50 million on replacement level players this season (and last) and Mike Matheny probably needs an assistant to help him tie his shoes, they both likely lack the organizational capital to demand aggressive moves anyway.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If Gyorko is hitting the ball so much better than Carpenter right now, why is his exit velocity the exact same and his hard hit percentage worse?

If the problem is him hitting into the teeth of the shift, why is his pull percentage lower than the last two years?

No one seemed to have a problem with him having a 48.1% pull rate in 2016, but now his 44.6% rate is problematic?

Is Bryce Harper suddenly a dogshit hitter because he has a .143 BABIP over the last two weeks?

Maybe it's just a small sample size.

Yeah, a 5th of the season is just a blink of an eye.

So what's your bet? How long do you think he's gonna do absolutely nothing before he turns it on again? And what do you suppose that will look like when he does?

He's not going to be this shitty all year (nobody has ever been this shitty all year), but he's not going to suddenly start smoking liners into gaps either.

Starting from this point forward I'm betting he still manages a WRC+ of maybe 100 (and it will be almost exclusively walk-fueled since that's all he tries to do these days). And he'll combine that with shitty defense at positions he shouldn't be playing anyway.

My preference would be for Carpenter to figure it out, get himself to at least some playable version of the good Carpenter and ship Martinez out so we can field an actual major league caliber defense (and we could really use Carpenter's LH stick). The ability of this team to do damage in the post-season with Carpenter and Martinez out there defensively is effectively nill. To my eyes, that's at worst a 1b platoon. But he's doubling down on this super-patient approach of his and I don't think that's going to pull him out of it.

Like I said - ambush guys for 2-3 weeks and try to get them off kilter. Try to get some confidence back and quit going up there begging for walks. Do something other than stare at 3 pitches and then hit the ball where people are standing.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

We don't all have systems with middle relievers and 5th OFers as our top prospects. Theo scorched the damn earth in your minors. He had sound cause but holy lord that system is barren.

Not too worried about the Cubs minors. Their roster is pretty much set for the next 3-4 years with young players for better or worse. I wish he would have gone more scorched earth and made a move for Christian Yelich. He fit what this team needed and it was apparently too obvious.

Theo brought a WS so I can't be mad but him not trading Soler after the 2015 playoffs and holding onto Ian Happ when he has no position on the field and is now tanking harder than Jason Heyward are 2 pretty devastating long term decisions.

At least Schwarber changed his physique and isn't an embarrassment in the outfield so far this year. Although, he did recently feed the Cardinals one of their wins in their recent sweep of the Cubs by lazily going after a fly ball that ended up scoring 2 runs.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Not too worried about the Cubs minors. Their roster is pretty much set for the next 3-4 years with young players for better or worse. I wish he would have gone more scorched earth and made a move for Christian Yelich. He fit would this team needed and it was apparently too obvious.

Theo brought a WS so I can't be mad but him not trading Soler after the 2015 playoffs and holding onto Ian Happ when he has no position on the field and is now tanking harder than Jason Heyward are 2 pretty devastating long term decisions.

At least Schwarber changed his physique and isn't an embarrassment in the outfield so far this year. Although, he did recently feed the Cardinals one of their wins in their recent sweep of the Cubs by lazily going after a fly ball that ended up scoring 2 runs.

I was at that game. I was dumbfounded that he let that ball get down. I actually wonder if they could've sent out Schwarber instead of Jimenez in that Quintana deal. Long-term I think they'd be better off for it and it might not hurt them too badly in the near term (would give Happ someplace to play). Then again, Maddon had massacred his value by that point so maybe not.

I'm starting to get a little worried that Heyward might just talk himself into opting out, though. He's looked decent every time I've seen him this year (though maybe he just tortures the Cardinals). I think he only made one truly bad out in that series; most of the time he struck the ball well. If my memory serves, his deferred money accelerates into 2019 if he opts out so that's a pretty solid immediate incentive to test the market if he thinks it would yield anything approaching his present deal.

Seems extremely unlikely, but not as impossible as it did 2 months ago...

[jd1020]

Whether he opts out or not I dont see Heyward being with the Cubs next year. His deal was frontloaded so with just a little cash thrown in with the deal he shouldn't be too hard to unload. That's assuming they throw the kitchen sink at Harper and go all in for the next 4 years before Bryant leaves and Harper opts out of the contract for a new pay day.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I was at that game. I was dumbfounded that he let that ball get down. I actually wonder if they could've sent out Schwarber instead of Jimenez in that Quintana deal. Long-term I think they'd be better off for it and it might not hurt them too badly in the near term (would give Happ someplace to play). Then again, Maddon had massacred his value by that point so maybe not.

I'm starting to get a little worried that Heyward might just talk himself into opting out, though. He's looked decent every time I've seen him this year (though maybe he just tortures the Cardinals). I think he only made one truly bad out in that series; most of the time he struck the ball well. If my memory serves, his deferred money accelerates into 2019 if he opts out so that's a pretty solid immediate incentive to test the market if he thinks it would yield anything approaching his present deal.

Seems extremely unlikely, but not as impossible as it did 2 months ago...

I don't think Heyward gets anywhere near what his current deal pays him on the open market. If he opts out, he would have to put together a better offensive season than he has the past 4 years in order to even come close.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

I don't think Heyward gets anywhere near what his current deal pays him on the open market. If he opts out, he would have to put together a better offensive season than he has the past 4 years in order to even come close.

If Heyward opted out he would get his salary for the 2019 season immediately from his deferred signing bonus.

What would effectively be left would be 4 years and $86 million. It would just depend on the years, but I could see a team offering more over the life of a contract. He'll still be only 29 years old. He would need to at least be an average hitter for him to do it and it probably wouldn't happen til after next season, imo. This next off season is a bit too crowded with better players. For the '19-'20 FA he'll be competing with just Ozuna for the most part.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you think Bader, Martinez and Kelly get him?

That is too much. That is too much for a rental. Bader/A. Garcia/Mercado/O'Neill alone would be where I would start. That is where we have depth.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If Gyorko is hitting the ball so much better than Carpenter right now, why is his exit velocity the exact same and his hard hit percentage worse?

If the problem is him hitting into the teeth of the shift, why is his pull percentage lower than the last two years?

No one seemed to have a problem with him having a 48.1% pull rate in 2016, but now his 44.6% rate is problematic?

Is Bryce Harper suddenly a dogshit hitter because he has a .143 BABIP over the last two weeks?

Maybe it's just a small sample size.

I wish I could believe he will improve drastically, and I get the balls in play theory that could swing more towards his norms. However, it isn't just his offense that has gone south, he is now a huge defensive downgrade anywhere but first, and that is only because the only other option is Martinez who is barely passable.

Give him at bats to get him out of his funk, but not at the expense of shelving your hottest hitters. If he takes off in limited duties then you can rethink what your best lineup should be.

[bdj23]

Boom