2018 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

Opening day lineup

Fowler RF
Pham CF
Carpenter 3B
Ozuna LF
Martinez 1B
Molina C
Dejong SS
Wong 2B
Pitcher

Edit:
Matheny fired 07/14/2018




Opening Day Roster

Spoiler!

St. Louis has opted to carry 12 position players and 13 pitchers to begin the new season, with a four-man bench and eight-man bullpen.

Outfielders:
Dexter Fowler
Tommy Pham
Marcell Ozuna

Infielders:
Matt Carpenter
Paul DeJong
Kolten Wong

Catchers:
Yadier Molina
Francisco Pena

Utility:
Jose Martinez
Greg Garcia
Yairo Munoz
Jedd Gyrko

Starters:
Carlos Martinez
Michael Wacha
Luke Weaver
Miles Mikolas
Jack Flaherty

Relievers:
Dominic Leone
Tyler Lyons
Bud Norris
Brett Cecil
Sam Tuivailala
Matt Bowman
Jordan Hicks
Mike Mayers

On the DL:
Adam Wainwright
Luke Gregerson

[Jewish Rabbi]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I was agreeing from a "hot" perspective. We are 14-3 lately. No team is playing better. During this streak, we are without a doubt the best team in baseball. Scoreboard.

To me that doesn't mean we are the best team in a month, in the playoffs or suddenly have the most talent in baseball.

We were the best team in baseball in 2004/2005 and didn't win a WS. Many times its the "hot" team.

What’s nuts is we really should be 17-0 during that stretch.

[jd1020]

I'm not concerned at all. The Cubs are pacing the league while missing their MVP, an entire starting pitching staff that is underperforming and missing a key piece, and missing their closer.

The NL as a whole doesn't mean shit to me. What I'm more concerned about is that Theo ****ed up with 2 big trades to deplete the system that I don't see how they get what they need to compete with any of the 3 monsters in the AL that will make it to the WS.

Theo has been completely stubborn when it comes to trading the guys on the MLB roster even though there's about 2 guys too many. If he doesn't get his head out of his ass and package a Russell, Schwarber, or Happ and target a legit TOR pitcher then not even Machado or Harper will alter their fate when it comes to facing the AL.

Hopefully with Bote emerging out of nowhere will finally give him the confidence to do it. But I won't be at all surprised if he elects to package Bote for some **** like Marcus Stroman to add to the plethora of #3 pitchers on the staff.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I'm not concerned at all. The Cubs are pacing the division while missing their MVP, an entire starting pitching staff that is underperforming and missing a key piece, and missing their closer.

The NL as a whole doesn't mean shit to me. What I'm more concerned about is that Theo ****ed up with 2 big trades to deplete the system that I don't see how they get what they need to compete with any 3 of the monsters in the AL that will make it to the WS.

Of course you are concerned. Your constant chirping the Cards should tear it all down is just wishful thinking. You see the Cubs have this 4 years of dominance ahead based largely on your position players. Your starters are "under performing" because that is probably who they are now. It happens to aging arms. I don't think any of us is saying, "well if we only had Waino back." Clearly this season has highlighted that we have a much deeper starting pitching bench to work from. We lost Martinez and Wacha. Where would you be without Lester and Hendricks?

Maybe the "Yu Debacle" will pan out for you and he will finally grow a pair and live up to expectations, but right now your dynasty is missing half of the equation.

The Cubs still are the team to beat, but your prospects have largely been tapped out and the future looks a little more narrow than before this season.

[jd1020]

I dont for one second think that who Quintana is right now, no matter how much I dislike him being on the Cubs, is who he will be. Nor do I think that about Kyle Hendricks who is starting to come around.

The only one who I think is fading is Jon Lester.

So is the once thought of future ace in Carlos Martinez on the Cardinals.

The Cardinals position hasnt changed at all. Yadi is still getting older, Carpenter is still getting older, their current best pitcher is only on a 2 year deal and unlikely to see a long term extension, their LFer who they traded for to be their middle of the order bat is only around for 1 more year and he's been more like a #7 hitter.

With Gyorko being complete shit this year the Cardinals are looking at finding a C, 3B, LF, and RF really soon. Not to mention if Paul DeJong continues to have Diaz like declines at the plate they could probably stand to look for a SS.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Carpenter is 2-19 this week and the Cardinals are 5-1. It's not a one man show.

Yes, he was on an unreal run, but it's not like we are talking about Bo Hart here, the man has had a solid history of hitting.

You are right about the supporting cast. I did a cursory glance at straight OPS figures for the past 30 days (roughly aligned with Shildt's entrance) and the only Cardinal regular position player who has been hitting in the "average range" is Gyorko who was at .742,

Wong, .919, Bader, .909, Carpenter .1126, DeJong .878, Ozuna .791, ONeill, .822, Martinez .818, Molina, .766 (slightly above average).

The improved defense of having DeJong, Wong, and Bader up the middle coupled with solid pitching (and pitching staff use) is what has made this run possible. They are hot hitters right now for sure, but you can point to defense and pitching that has helped close that gap quick as well.

30 games is not a season, but like poker, if I'm going to get lucky, I would rather it be when the blinds get big than when they are small.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I dont for one second think that who Quintana is right now, no matter how much I dislike him being on the Cubs, is who he will be. Nor do I think that about Kyle Hendricks who is starting to come around.

The only one who I think is fading is Jon Lester.

So is the once thought of future ace in Carlos Martinez on the Cardinals.

The Cardinals position hasnt changed at all. Yadi is still getting older, Carpenter is still getting older, their current best pitcher is only on a 2 year deal and unlikely to see a long term extension, their LFer who they traded for to be their middle of the order bat is only around for 1 more year and he's been more like a #7 hitter.

With Gyorko being complete shit this year the Cardinals are looking at finding a C, 3B, LF, and RF really soon. Not to mention if Paul DeJong continues to have Diaz like declines at the plate they could probably stand to look for a SS.

You might want to try speaking with some evidence. Gyorko, has not been a bright spot, but hardly complete shit. Playing part time for much of the year, he still has an OPS+ of 103, or just a tick above average. Paul DeJong and Diaz like decline? You might want to worry more about your own Russell who is checking in with a "dangerous" OPS of .679, or OPS+ of 78...ouch!

In fact your position player line up comes in with a current WAR of 18.8. That is complicated by Bryant of course who was at 1.4 (304 at bats). The Cards lineup? 20.7.

So yes, Molina is getting older, however we do have 2 ready to go prospects that are fairly highly touted. Carpenter is entering the down years of his prime.

Zobrist and Baez have been your two best players. How old is Zobrist? 47, 48 now? The luster and hype for Almora, Russell, and to some extent Haap and Schwarber has been tarnished to say the least. Face it your line up is closer to ours than you care to admit, and I will gladly admit that there are upsides on the Cubs that could still break big. Time will tell.

I feel a little more confident we can find an above average replacement at a corner infield position or outfield position than what it might cost to go searching the minefield of free agent starting or relief pitching that the Cubs will likely have to navigate again.

Not all of our pitching prospects will pan out. We might never get a #1 out of them, but nearly all of them have shown that they can make a staff, if 1/3 of them trend up, that is a nice place to be with controllable talent.

[jd1020]

If you think the Cardinals lineup is close to the Cubs you are ****ing delusional.

Zobrist isn't counted on to be an every day player so how old he is is irrelevant to the conversation. His position is firmly accounted for. Everything you get from him at this point is a cherry on top.

Who can you make an argument for being better on the Cardinals position for position outside of the current form of Matt Carpenter over Rizzo?

Its not gonna be Wong.
DeJong is probably an equal offensively to Russell while Russell is infinitely better defensively.
Its not gonna be anyone at 3B over Bryant.
Its not gonna be Ozuna over Schwarber.
Bader is currently having a better year than Almora at the plate but he probably ends up being about what you get from Almora.
No one in RF is giving you close to what Heyward is doing.
And Molina is having a youthful resurgence while still coming in about equal to Contreras in a down year.

You need to forget about Carson Kelly as Molina's replacement. His bat is so bad the only team he would stick on would be a situation like the Padres with Austin Hedges and Kelly makes him look like Babe Ruth.

The Cubs have 4 bats you could reasonably put in the middle of a lineup. The Cardinals have 1 and when he is put in that situation he has an an aneurysm.

Get the **** out of here with that bullshit.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

If you think the Cardinals lineup is close to the Cubs you are ****ing delusional.

Zobrist isn't counted on to be an every day player so how old he is is irrelevant to the conversation. His position is firmly accounted for. Everything you get from him at this point is a cherry on top.

I don't have to think it...statistically right now they are close. You talked completely off the cuff (and wrongly) about a DeJong decline, ignoring the offensive decline of your own shortstop. You brought up Diaz...here is some facts.

The following is the current OPS+ and career OPS+ for all 3 shortstops. Guess which one is Russell?

106/115
101/108
78/88

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by VAChief

I don't have to think it...statistically right now they are close. You talked completely off the cuff (and wrongly) about a DeJong decline, ignoring the offensive decline of your own shortstop. You brought up Diaz...here is some facts.

The following is the current OPS+ and career OPS+ for all 3 shortstops. Guess which one is Russell?

106/115
101/108
78/88

I havent ignored anything about Russell you clown.

Russell is there simply for his defense. His bat has never come around. I've even suggested that Theo needs to ****ing trade him in the the last couple pages. The Cubs can just as easily slide Baez over to SS and fill 2B with Zobrist/Happ if they choose or open up a spot for Bote and wait for the guy they just drafted in the 1st round who is the type of hitter this team desperately needs.

Guess what would happen if the Cubs did that? The gap between the Cubs lineup and Cardinals lineup would get LARGER while only suffering a minor loss in defense.

And if you think DeJong hasnt declined at the plate since his rookie year or even the start of this year then you clearly arent even paying attention to your own team.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I havent ignored anything about Russell you clown.

Russell is there simply for his defense. His bat has never come around. I've even suggested that Theo needs to ****ing trade him in the the last couple pages. The Cubs can just as easily slide Baez over to SS and fill 2B with Zobrist/Happ if they choose or open up a spot for Bote and wait for the guy they just drafted in the 1st round who is the type of hitter this team desperately needs.

Guess what would happen if the Cubs did that? The gap between the Cubs lineup and Cardinals lineup would get LARGER while only suffering a minor loss in defense.

And if you think DeJong hasnt declined at the plate since his rookie year or even the start of this year then you clearly arent even paying attention to your own team.

It has nothing to do with decline. His BABIP dropped, his walk rate has almost doubled, and he broke his hand, which takes a while to recover from. Get the **** out of here and go play with the shitbags at BleedCubbieBlue. No one wants your **** ass around.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It has nothing to do with decline. His BABIP dropped, his walk rate has almost doubled, and he broke his hand, which takes a while to recover from. Get the **** out of here and go play with the shitbags at BleedCubbieBlue. No one wants your **** ass around.

So you are telling me that a guy loses 50 points of ISO and nearly 100 points in SLG% isnt a decline because his BABIP is down?

Ok bro. Keep drinking that koolaid.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by jd1020

So you are telling me that a guy loses 50 points of ISO and nearly 100 points in SLG% isnt a decline because his BABIP is down?

Ok bro. Keep drinking that koolaid.

That and a ****ing hand injury tend to make a pretty big difference.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I havent ignored anything about Russell you clown.

Russell is there simply for his defense. His bat has never come around. I've even suggested that Theo needs to ****ing trade him in the the last couple pages. The Cubs can just as easily slide Baez over to SS and fill 2B with Zobrist/Happ if they choose or open up a spot for Bote and wait for the guy they just drafted in the 1st round who is the type of hitter this team desperately needs.

Guess what would happen if the Cubs did that? The gap between the Cubs lineup and Cardinals lineup would get LARGER while only suffering a minor loss in defense.

And if you think DeJong hasnt declined at the plate since his rookie year or even the start of this year then you clearly arent even paying attention to your own team.

Last 15 games DeJong is slugging .545. His WAR is the exact same it was last year.

Schwarber statistically is overall marginally worse this year than Ozuna who is having his worst year. Ozuna 1.8 WAR, Schwarber 1.5...Schwarber is having a better offensive year not doubt, but is still the albatross defensively despite his success with Jenny Craig in the off season...Career wise they are neck and neck OPS+...Ozuna slightly better....so what if Ozuna starts showing signs of returning to form as he has the last week...that tips quite a bit differently down the stretch.

Really you think Bader might be having a better year? The thing about that comparison is Statcast doesn't lie...you can't fake speed, zone ratings, and offensively he is hitting his stride as well...WAR for Bader 3.9...Almora 1.8 with below average OPS+.

You dude are the homer...no one here remotely is crowning the Cards the future rulers of the NL Central, let alone MLB.

There is a lot to be optimistic about the Cards future...Their pitching depth has been impressive. The position players have stabilized and other than Molina, everyone is at or below their prime years still. You threw away Wong, but guess where Wong's WAR would rank on your Cubbies? Tied for second with Contreras.

So kindly, go fist yourself.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That and a ****ing hand injury tend to make a pretty big difference.

About the only thing he was doing in the month prior to the injury was taking walks.

His highest average since the start of the year from month to month is his current .233.

Whatever excuse you want to blame it on, he is not on the same level he once was. The only thing carrying this months OPS, so far, is his 4 HRs.

[jd1020]

Schwarber still an albatross on defense? News to me. He has a +3 DRS this year and I believe the most outfield assists, I haven't looked at it in a bit. Is he Lorenzo Cain? No. But hes been more than serviceable on defense this season.

Schwarber, according to one site, is about equal in WAR to Ozuna.

Schwarber according to another site is about 2x better than Ozuna in WAR.

Which one is it?