***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

People are dying at an alarming rate( fact) in NY in atypical fashion and the only new thing introduced was covid-19 , could there be another explanation maybe , but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it often is a duck.

[petegz28]

Houston Looking at Dismantling $17M Temp Hospital That Didn't See a Single Patient

https://www.westernjournal.com/houst...Q_9_tz9x7-GG-g

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Age is a secondary factor... obesity, diabetes and hypertension are the primary characteristics of people who are destroying hospital capacity.

The healthy 75 year olds who take care of themselves are not the problem.

Do you actually know of a healthy 75 year old with no health issues? If so I would like to meet them.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Houston Looking at Dismantling $17M Temp Hospital That Didn't See a Single Patient

https://www.westernjournal.com/houst...Q_9_tz9x7-GG-g

Denver significantly reduced their plans last week as well. It's definitely encouraging that, out of NYC, our systems seem to be holding up for the most part.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Yes, as Hamas stated this is a well designed study, that could have 1/4 error in testing, which they say they adjusted for in their conclusions. The difference is still a .11 IFR instead of a .08 if they didn't adjust properly. This is by far the best of these studies so far and peer review will be interesting, but you can't continue to discount these test. They are buying the antibody test off the internet and they have measures in place to gauge their accuracy.

Hamas mentioned earlier on NYC deaths , CFR would be 0.1 right now with no other deaths in NYC , so it wouldn’t e a blower there.

100 doctors in Italy ya e died in 3 months treating covid , doesn’t that seem odd to you , I don’t remember ever seeing that with Flu SARS etc .

Some numbers don’t pass the eyeball test.

[Titty Meat]

To all the gym goers how long are you going to wait before returning to the gym?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

To all the gym goers how long are you going to wait before returning to the gym?

I'm only a once or twice a week (at best) kind of guy in the first place, but I can't imagine going much, if at all, this summer. If things stay calm by July or August, I might go back.

It's nice outside, though. I'd rather go on a hike or something anyway.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

Same can be said for the swab tests though. I've read somewhere that the tests may give a false negative reading 30% of the time.

That's if they test you. We took my 5 month old to Childrens Mercy twice about 3 weeks ago and they diagnosed him with Bronchiolitis and RSV. He had a fever of 100.8 and a cough. They said he met the symptoms of COVID-19 but did not meet the standards of testing but requested we all quarantine for 14 days. I called everywhere trying to get tests and we could not get a test in JOCO. How many more are in my son's shoes where they show symptoms but refuse to test?

This has been happening since the beginning despite the claims that anybody that needed a test could.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

You are obviously a lawyer and not a mathematician...

You need to change the denominator, not the comparable.

441,000 x 10 = 4,410,000
6501/4,410,000 = .0014 or .014%

That number doesn't even extrapolate out those with underlying health issues... Which is the majority of those under 65 that die...

Again, you used 38 million as the number who had the flu in fall/winter of 2017/2018 based on the CDC, but Covid-19 with a higher R0 is only 4.4 million right now... Doesn't add up.

Holy shit why are you lecturing me on math?

Is your calculator busted?

6501 divided by 4,410,000 is .147% not .0147% you are off by a factor of another 10. The two bolded numbers I posted are not the same you moved the decimal the wrong number of places. It has to be moved by two places in a percent.

Again .147% >> .026%




On the second point Of course it adds up we’ve had severe lockdown measures to reduce the r0 below its natural infectivity. As I explained the first time (you apparently didn’t read it closely) I used the figure 4.4 million as of April 14. It is two weeks old. It would be higher today. But also as I explained I had to match it with the CDC data that is also 2 weeks old. There is no current cdc table breaking down covid19 deaths by age I could find (and you sure aren’t providing it).

[dirk digler]

And I believe Hamas and others have stated this but most of the current antibody tests are shit. You shouldn't believe them.

Some antibody tests, which check for prior Covid-19 infection, had high rates of false positives in screenings performed by a consortium of California laboratories, according to a recently released report.

A false positive means someone would be told they'd already had coronavirus when they had not -- a potential danger as people could then think they were immune to the virus when they're actually still vulnerable.

Of the 12 antibody tests that were studied by the COVID-19 Testing Project, one of the tests gave false positives more than 15% of the time, or in about one out of seven samples. Three other tests gave false positives more than 10% of the time.

"This was a real wake up call for me. We're not at the point where any of these tests can be used reliably," added study coauthor Dr. Alexander Marson. "There's a big danger in relying on them at all, but we hope we get to a point soon where we can rely on these tests."

"That's terrible. That's really terrible," said Dr. Caryn Bern, one of the authors of the study that looked at the 12 tests.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm only a once or twice a week (at best) kind of guy in the first place, but I can't imagine going much, if at all, this summer. If things stay calm by July or August, I might go back.

It's nice outside, though. I'd rather go on a hike or something anyway.

That's the thing. All this talk and protest about opening back up, anyone with the slightest bit of common sense is going to wait to see how this plays out.

Anyone thinking that opening things up just magically solves the economy is in for a harsh wake up call.

Governor Ducey can let the order expire on Thursday, but I don't know a single person that is going to rush back to the office, or a bar, movie theater, etc.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm only a once or twice a week (at best) kind of guy in the first place, but I can't imagine going much, if at all, this summer. If things stay calm by July or August, I might go back.

It's nice outside, though. I'd rather go on a hike or something anyway.

Was thinking the same but I guess what difference does it make without a vaccine? We will be exposed.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This is a well-designed study and by far the largest so far, it estimates a IFR of .0008 or .08% for those under age 70. I found this finding in the study very timely, especially after earlier discussions today in this thread:

Even if it were accurate, .08% would be 3-4 times higher than the rate I posted for the flu.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Hamas mentioned earlier on NYC deaths , CFR would be 0.1 right now with no other deaths in NYC , so it wouldn’t e a blower there.

100 doctors in Italy ya e died in 3 months treating covid , doesn’t that seem odd to you , I don’t remember ever seeing that with Flu SARS etc .

Some numbers don’t pass the eyeball test.

New York is an anomaly and it doesn't make a lot of sense why their death rate is so high. It can only be a few things like putting Covid 19 positive patients back in Nursing homes, categorizing all deaths at home as Covid-19 deaths, 3700 without testing them, or poor treatment and care compared to other states. That being said, their deaths are still largely those with underlying conditions and/or older than 70...

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Was thinking the same but I guess what difference does it make without a vaccine? We will be exposed.

We'll have a much better understanding of the risk.