***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

That's claiming that the present R0 in every state is sub-1?

Now that you mention it. It does look like that is the case though most are pretty close to 1.

Originally Posted by TLO

Wow. That model is much more pessimistic. They also take a pretty large dump on the IHME model.

You will notice there is a big spike coming in August, probably from reopening the state.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

If they had underlying conditions it's no big deal if they die. Don't you see?

They were dead anyway. So F the 85% plus of seniors with that. Let em die. I need to go see the new Marvel movie.

This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.

How many died in 2017-2018 flu season that were young and healthy compared to Covi-19? How many from H1N1 compared to Covid 19?

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.

This will be the 10th time (probably) I have asked you to back up this claim.

I have seen no data to back it up. The sources you cited last time did not address flu deaths by age group.

More importantly though: there is no plan to "protect them" because the disease transmits asymptomatically and they have contact with the other age groups.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.

How many died in 2017-2018 flu season that were young and healthy compared to Covi-19? How many from H1N1 compared to Covid 19?

Let's say that first part is accurate, which I doubt it is:

When was the last time 55,000 Americans died in a month during a seasonal flu?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

One third of Sweden’s COVID-19 deaths are taking place in nursing homes.

If they could more strategically social distance this high risk group (i.e. limit outside visitors, ensure that all staff have proper protective gear, etc.), their overall death rate would be much lower.

You think they didn't do that? there is a possibility they did and the virus still managed to find a way in because it is very contagious.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

You think they didn't do that? there is a possibility they did and the virus still managed to find a way in because it is very contagious.

If they did isolate the nursing homes and 1/3rd of their deaths are still from nursing homes, what does that imply?

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

This will be the 10th time (probably) I have asked you to back up this claim.

I have seen no data to back it up. The sources you cited last time did not address flu deaths by age group.

More importantly though: there is no plan to "protect them" because the disease transmits asymptomatically and they have contact with the other age groups.

I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

If they did isolate the nursing homes and 1/3rd of their deaths are still from nursing homes, what does that imply?

That's it is very contagious and makes very hard to implement your plan of isolating only at risk people which is 80% of the population.

Workers/staff /cooks/c etc.. still have to go in thoses homes even with precautions it cans till still spread.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.

he has a agenda as Donger would put it

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.

Yes you linked the 2017-18 flu and h1n1, but they did not have deaths broken down by AGE. That's probably because the figures were only estimates for those illnesses.

You are making a claim about comparing the risk of mortality for a certain age bracket. THAT is what is not backed up.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

That's it is very contagious and makes very hard to implement your plan of isolating only at risk people which is 80% of the population.

Workers/staff /cooks/c etc.. still have to go in thoses homes even with precautions it cans till still spread.

I think we know that's not nearly the case based off the data we have or else hospitalizations would be much higher and we wouldn't have 20X the number of known infections walking around asymptomatic.

I think people are taking some pretty extreme liberties with what underlying conditions increase mortality with covid, it seems they are probably fairly specific and coupled with age. There is likely a combination of conditions that make a really bad scenario.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Let's say that first part is accurate, which I doubt it is:

When was the last time 55,000 Americans died in a month during a seasonal flu?

When's the last time 26,000 Americans died in a month outside of NYC/NJ?Probably 2017-2018 flu season.

When's the last time more people under the age of 65 and healthy died of a contagion in a month during flu season? Most likely 2009, 2015-16, and 2017-2018

Here's a good resource...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

[TLO]

1 step forward 2 steps back

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think we know that's not nearly the case based off the data we have or else hospitalizations would be much higher and we wouldn't have 20X the number of known infections walking around asymptomatic.

I think people are taking some pretty extreme liberties with what underlying conditions increased mortality with covid. it seems there are probably fairly specific and coupled with age. There is likely a combination of conditions that make a really bad scenario.

And perhaps there would have been if we had not taken the mitigation efforts we did.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

When's the last time 26,000 Americans died in a month outside of NYC/NJ?Probably 2017-2018 flu season.

When's the last time more people under the age of 65 and healthy died of a contagion in a month during flu season? Most likely 2009, 2015-16, and 2017-2018

Here's a good resource...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

I didn't ask about 26,000.