***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by notorious

That's what I get for not quoting the post I referenced!

The Ohio prison "test" has the 99.14% survival rate.

Not just survival rate but symptom rate no?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So call it, how many people do you think are really walking around with this virus?

I'll say 10-12 million

I think we’re probably missing 20-30x infections than the actual count

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think we’re probably missing 20-30x infections than the actual count

So you say 20-30 mil?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So you say 20-30 mil?

I think so yeah.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think so yeah.

so let's assume that 30 mil is correct. That puts our death rate at what, .02%?

Shouldn't we actually feel a bit better about it? I know it seems a bit counter-intuitive but wouldn't that actually be the case?

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think we’re probably missing 20-30x infections than the actual count

Definitely enough to not make me overly worried about some worst second wave that is often predicted. I just think the amount of potential infections is going to be so much lower even a month from now than we really even imagine.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I'm just aghast at the fact that virtually our entire society was able to make such massive sacrifices for wartime efforts 80 years ago--planting Liberty Gardens, no one getting a new car for four years, rations, half of an entire generation going off to war while the other half entered the workforce to replace them--for the better part of four years, yet our society can't make it through four weeks.

Totally different metrics, different incentives, different consequences, different risk, and different restrictions [including some that, while less than what we're currently imposing, are considered a stain on our nation].

We've been remarkably compliant, and now it's not just yearning to stretch our legs for the eff of it, but it's also bundled with an unspoken narrative that things that aren't evident in the near future and may not happen for a long time are becoming a pre-requisite to any changes at all. And social media while in personal isolation self-curates the most wild-eyed and outrageous for your perusal.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by O.city

Not just survival rate but symptom rate no?

I didn't see anything on the Ohio prison page that states symptom rates, just positive/negative/pending cases, and of course deaths.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Definitely enough to not make me overly worried about some worst second wave that is often predicted. I just think the amount of potential infections is going to be so much lower even a month from now than we really even imagine.

The problem is right now for every 1 death we blow it up to be like 1000 deaths and for every 1 negative case we swear it 1000 times to be a false negative.

I don't want anyone to die from this or anything else for that matter. No one does. But there is a pragmatism that is not being applied by some and admittedly to liberally by others.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

so let's assume that 30 mil is correct. That puts our death rate at what, .02%?

Shouldn't we actually feel a bit better about it? I know it seems a bit counter-intuitive but wouldn't that actually be the case?

It would be 0.002

But death is a lagging factor so the death from today’s current infections wouldn’t theoretically be happening for 2 weeks

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It would be 0.002

But death is a lagging factor so the death from today’s current infections wouldn’t theoretically be happening for 2 weeks

Fair enough point but at the rate we seen it won't vary enough to be significant in one direction or the other.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Definitely enough to not make me overly worried about some worst second wave that is often predicted. I just think the amount of potential infections is going to be so much lower even a month from now than we really even imagine.

We aren’t thru the first wave. I don’t think we’ll have a second wave but moreso a continual slow burn

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by O.city

We aren’t thru the first wave. I don’t think we’ll have a second wave but moreso a continual slow burn

That’s how I see it too.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Fair enough point but at the rate we seen it won't vary enough to be significant in one direction or the other.

I’m just wildly guessing. Maybe it doesn’t continue on a growth pattern after so many cycles, I don’t know.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

That’s how I see it too.

And if that’s the way it goes well blow past 6 figure deaths easily. Sad shit man